The Fortress

By Boris Mellor
October 29 2008

David Pleat, Glenn Hoddle, Jacques Santini, Martin Jol and Juande Ramos all failed to win against Arsenal.Thus Redknapp would become the first of six Tottenham managers to win the north London derby.The last time Spurs beat us in a real game was 2-1 at White Hart Lane on 7 November 1999. If my memory serves me correctly it was an absolute travesty with the mysterious red carding of Freddy.

  At the start of the season, on the official Liverpool website I predicted that Spurs would go down this season. No I don't predict that Spurs will go down every year. It is the first time I have done that during the Premiership. My reasons were more balanced than issues of rivalry. Firstly Spurs have not won many matches since they won the Carling Cup, indeed their cup success saw them go onto finish eleventh.

Thus an eleventh based team  proceeded to lose its best strikers, i.e. Keane and Berbatov. Now Spurs strength last year was scoring goals, not defending, indeed the defence was poor. So poor that it conceded 61 goals; Reading were relegated on one less goal.

Therefore Spurs are dependent on their attack getting them out of trouble, but this year it has only scored seven, whilst Arsenal have scored eighteen already. Those seven goals include one penalty and two own goals. Thus Spurs players have scored four goals in open play over 9 games that is less than .5 per game. Away from home they have only scored three in total.

They have conceded twice as many goals as the Gunner's six. So a team with a poor defence finds it difficult to score, and that is why I predicted their demise. The main cause of that demise is not just Ramos, but the fact that the team is so unbalanced. Comoli did not replace like with like. True Spurs spent on replacements, but I will not claim to know how good or bad they will be. All I will say is that when you buy players from outside the Premiership they can take a while to settle in. Indeed Ramos has made a similar point in today's Guardian, but with an added compliant that are also young.

When Harry Met Tony

Maybe Harry can reverse the trend, maybe he is a miracle worker, for  he will need to be because he has inherited a rotten set up. Nonetheless I was expecting Ramos to win the Bolton game, for the Trotters have lost four out of their five away games.

Of course for derbies the form book can go out of the window, but if Arsenal concentrate on their own game and play well they should be too good for this Spurs team.

Some fans fear that Spurs will try and kick their way out of their bad patch, hardly advisable with two players suspended already, and it is not normally Harry's way. He may well keep plenty of men behind the ball, but the Emirates pitch is large enough to make it a risky strategy, and the ground will be nice and wet.

Wenger asked how he thought Harry's arrival would affect things replied that, "It will be down to our strength - how we play is more important than anything else". If the team use the West Ham result to inspire them, and don't get complacent, then Harry will have to wait for his lucky six to roll up.

Squad Goes From Strength to Strength

Sagna returned on Sunday, and Toure and Denilson return for tonight's game.

Possible Squad

Almunia, Sagna, Gallas, Toure, Clichy, Walcott, Fabregas, Song, Nasri, Adebayor, van Persie, Fabianski, Denilson, Ramsey, Djourou, Silvestre, Diaby, Bendtner.

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