MALCOM THE ANORAK

By dixon9
December 23 2008

The season so far has been characterised by fans and the media citing the apparent poor performances of the so called “Big Four” teams. Chelsea, Man Utd, Arsenal and Liverpool are supposedly all dropping points left right and centre whilst “the rest” are therefore logically enjoying taking points off them. Are we getting worse and the rest better? Or is it a case of both? Or…er…something else?

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(Quick warning: This piece is a bit anoraky – tried to make it less so but it was almost impossible!).

Some often claim that the Premier League isn’t competitive enough – well it certainly is starting to look as if that won’t be the situation this season.

Current table:

This time last season after 18 games the top four teams had a total of 158 points between them - this season the total is 140 (for Chelsea, Man Utd, Arsenal and Liverpool) although Man Utd have played two games less.  If we suppose that Man Utd would get a win and draw out of these two games in hand then the total for perhaps a more realistic comparison would be 144 points giving us a narrower difference of 14 points. 

Now 14 points is only an average of just over 3 points worse off per team.  Not really enough to say that the top 4 performances have significantly got worse really is it?

What definitely has happened is that Aston Villa have displaced Arsenal from the coveted top four section after improving by 5 points on last season.  Arsenal have dropped a substantial 12 points and if we want to put our parkas on and really go for the "Malcom with glasses on" to top it off then we can look at a dropped/gained points comparison between now and last season:

So only two of the top four are actually performing worse than last season - Man Utd and Arsenal are the culprits (and that’s allowing the extra four points for Man Utd for their two games in hand don’t forget) whilst both Liverpool and Chelsea are marginally better off.  Surprising?  A little bit yes.

Given that Chelsea have actually IMPROVED on last season (and it´s also interesting that Chelsea are the only club out of the top 4 to have improved upon their goal difference - almost double the previous season) many Chelsea fans might say that doesn’t count too much as it’s Mourinho´s ability to rack up the points rather than Grant that we lament the loss of (that said Mourinho was in charge for around four of those 18 league matches).  Liverpool look a bit more solid than before but is three points extra really enough to get carried away with?

Yes, the top four are underperforming as a group but only slightly overall.  (If you want to go on to look at just who the top four teams dropped points against so far then see the end of this article).

Looking at the chasing pack behind the normal top four clubs positions and down to mid table clubs so far for this season then we get a total of 157 points (including Aston Villa but taking Arsenal out of the equation) but clubs in these positions achieved 175 points last season – so they’ve actually got worse by 18 points (although this works out at only an average of just over 2 points per club).

So what about all the lower clubs then?  Have they improved? Well the points total for clubs from 11^th to 20th position last season was 162 – this season it’s 192 – up by fairly hefty 30 points.

So, in conclusion, the top four have got slightly worse, the others down to mid-table are also slightly worse but the bottom half have significantly improved. 

What’s apparently happening is that the bottom teams are compressing the league. Why is this?  Well maybe it’s because the recent TV deal money has enabled these clubs to improve their squads more than previous seasons or maybe it’s because these clubs are much more tactically aware and disciplined - or a bit of both.  It’s that recent cliché – the bar has been raised and the effect has filtered down to the lower teams at this point and the league is a bit more competitive as a result.

The current top two of Liverpool and Chelsea are regularly failing to pull away or go above the other when golden opportunities are presented and a few weekends ago the so called “Big Four” all drew their respective matches on the same weekend (The media made quite a bit out of it as this hadn’t happened in something like 40 years).

Liverpool have improved despite boardroom upheaval and Benitez has a more assured air about him this season, Chelsea have a new manager and are in football style transition which has been hampered by injuries, Man Utd have had their usual slow start and that little jaunt in Japan and finally, Wenger so far still refuses to add that couple of top players to balance a youngish squad despite their fans pleading for the wallet to be opened (whether there really is a wallet in the first place is another matter).

As a Chelsea fan, I quite like the idea of us being 10 points ahead at the moment and that we go on to win every match 6-0, swatting away all that come before us.  The “neutral” would welcome that fact that the league is a lot tighter these days – a bit more intriguing and that delicious air of unpredictability puts a strong whiff about the place.

It’s going to be an interesting season.

Note:

Arsenal have dropped three points each against Fulham, Hull City, Stoke City, Aston Villa, and Man City along with two points to Sunderland, Spurs, Middlesbrough and Liverpool. 

Man Utd have dropped three points to Liverpool and Arsenal and two points to Newcastle, Chelsea, Everton, Aston Villa and Spurs (although having played two games less). 

Chelsea have dropped maximum points against Liverpool and Arsenal and two points against Spurs, Man Utd, Newcastle, West Ham and Everton. 

Liverpool have lost to Spurs and drawn against Aston Villa, Stoke City, Fulham, West Ham and Arsenal.

Are the Rest Better and the Top 4 Worse?

Discussion started by 50 Years Over 100 Years , 23/12/2008 17:11

50 Years Over 100 Years
23/12/2008 17:11

What do you think? You can have your say by posting below.

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Ole Gunner
23/12/2008 17:32

Great analysis. Chelsea and Liverpool are about as good as they were this time last season. What does that say about their chances?

When you compare two teams you have to use the same standards: Chelsea's transition and injuries also applies to Arsenal.

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dixon9
23/12/2008 17:39

Well the injuries maybe - as for the transition, I´m sorry, but Arsenal have been in "transition" for the last 4 years! If the transition doesn´t end to completion at some point then you have to look at the manager - but in Wenger´s case if the board are telling Gooners porkies about available cash for players then look at the board.





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"It is born out of hypocrisy and fundamental insecurity. There have been two kids on the block for the past 12 years. Suddenly, there is a third and that one is threatening to be more successful than the others and they don’t like it." P Kenyon.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 2008:12:23:19:28:13 by dixon9.

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guest
23/12/2008 17:54

easy this one,,,firstly very very good piece your best yet boss,,

the top four stood still not many sighnings,,every one else moved on spent money and are slowly catching you,,the top four play same way week in week out,,then up pops some team like hull and have a go,,they dont no wot to do,,and not been funny just like burnley did,,there is an attitude that other clubs will roll over,this has stopped now and these clubs are looking at the hull,s and burnley,s and think well if they can do it so can we,,hence we have the best football in the world,,,great piece again mate

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Steve Symmons
23/12/2008 22:23

Sorry, you've got to compare "apples-with-apples". If you rate Chelsea's results this season with the comparable fixtures from last season you'll find an unhealthy deficit of 12 points. This has been wallpapered over by a particularly generous fixture program that has seen us play away at venues where Chelsea would have expected to pick up points.
I would that this were not true...

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dixon9
23/12/2008 23:10

The big flaws with that argument are that for a start, 3 of the teams that were there last season are NOT there this season (9 points worth of matches at the kalf-way stage or 18 points for the whole season), secondly, it also doesn´t take into account if other teams have improved from last season due to new signings, managers etc - not apples with apples is it?!

If all the other teams bar Chelsea STAYED exactly the same in terms of their own performances THEN you could compare apples with apples as far as Chelsea are concerned - but that´s obviously not the case - you are assuming that it is.

If it was ONLY Chelsea that had changed then you might have something - but the fact is, two of the top four Man Utd and Arsenal both have much less points than they did last season - two of our biggest rivals.

Basically what seems to have happened is that the average line of ALL the top 4 teams has gone down whilst the bottom teams average reference has gone up - the league has been compressed.





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"It is born out of hypocrisy and fundamental insecurity. There have been two kids on the block for the past 12 years. Suddenly, there is a third and that one is threatening to be more successful than the others and they don’t like it." P Kenyon.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 2008:12:25:00:38:23 by dixon9.

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ArsenalForever
24/12/2008 05:03

12 points less then what we had last season and wenger thinks we actually can win the league

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guest
31/12/2008 17:57

Quote:

ArsenalForever
12 points less then what we had last season and wenger thinks we actually can win the league

bet he dint see it coming

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