Tranmere Rovers
League One Survival Guide
By Matthew Jones
April 26 2010
As the season draws to what promises to be an exciting conclusion, Total Tranmere's Matthew Jones brings you the definitive survival guide, looking at what it's going to take for League One clubs to beat the drop
261 days ago, or eight months and eighteen days, or simply 44 league games ago, Tranmere Rovers started a new League One campaign with a fresh set of players, a new manager, a new assistant manager and a former Chairman coming back into the fold.
A disappointing 2-0 defeat to Yeovil Town on August 8th started the season off in the worst possible fashion and things have hardly been much better for Rovers since, who've languished in the League One relegation zone for the majority of the season.
Back to the present day, there are just two games left in the season and Rovers lie two points adrift of safety, behind Exeter City and Gillingham in the League One relegation, fighting for their lives to beat the drop down to League Two for the first time in twenty years.
Here, in this article, Total Tranmere hopes to provide you with the definitive survival guide, looking at what it's going to take from each team to beat the dreaded drop to League Two.
Firstly, a glance at the league table shows that realistically there are five teams fighting against the two relegation places, though if Hartlepool get docked three points for fielding a suspended player against Brighton then this figure could well rise to six.
The bottom of the table currently looks like this:
| Position | Team | Games | Points | GD |
| 18 | Leyton Orient | 44 | 48 | -11 |
| 19 | Gillingham | 44 | 47 | -13 |
| 20 | Exeter | 44 | 47 | -14 |
| 21 | Tranmere | 44 | 45 | -32 |
| 22 | Wycombe | 44 | 42 | -21 |
Tranmere then clearly hold a disadvantage against the teams above them. Not only are Rovers two points behind the two teams directly above them, but they also have a far worse goal difference, meaning Rovers are effectively three points behind Exeter and Gillingham and effectively four points behind Leyton Orient.
This however does not rule them completely out of the relegation battle. All the teams around them have tough games, as of course do Rovers, with Exeter and Gillingham all set to face in form sides and Leyton Orient also facing a couple of tricky games.
May 1st:
Gillingham vs. Southampton
Hartlepool vs. Exeter
Leyton Orient vs. Wycombe
Tranmere vs. Millwall
May 8th:
Colchester vs. Leyton Orient
Exeter vs. Huddersfield
Stockport vs. Tranmere
Wycombe vs. Gillingham
There are then some huge fixtures left in League One in the relegation battle, and despite being three points behind Tranmere and five points from safety, it's clear to see that Wycombe have a huge hand to play in the relegation battle.
What will it take though for each team to stop the rot and beat relegation? What are the mathmatics behind each team staying up? Hopefully, this will make things a bit easier for you.
Leyton Orient:
Leyton Orient are in the strongest position at the moment, as they lie three points clear of relegation, although as pointed out above it may as well be four due to Tranmere's poor goal difference.
This means then that the O's need to win just one of their last two games to avoid relegation this season, though with Wycombe battling themselves to beat the drop, they may not get that in their next game.
However, if Tranmere fail to pick up at least a point against Millwall this weekend, then Orient will be safe.
Gillingham:
Gillingham are level on points with Exeter but ahead of the St. James' Park side in the table due to a slightly better goal difference. They do however face a very tough run in, with games against Southampton at home and then away to Wycombe.
It's important here to remember that Gillingham have not won an away game all season, and if Wycombe win against Leyton Orient, then this final day of the season fixture could be huge.
However, Gillingham know that a point against Southampton could be enough for them if Wycombe and Tranmere both lose at the weekend.
The Saints though will go to Priestfield currently top of the form table over the last six games and though they have nothing left to play for, they may well put in a hard shift to try and impress manager Alan Pardew with next season in mind.
To be 100% sure they'll beat the drop though, Gillingham need to pick up four points from their remaining two games.
Exeter:
Exeter are in the same position to Gillingham, a win this weekend could be enough to ensure their safety, but it's won't be easy for them against Hartlepool United.
The Monkey Hangers have won five in a row on home soil and if they get deducted three points then this game will take on added importance, as they will be just three points above Tranmere in the drop zone.
Exeter then face a tough final day of the season game at home to Huddersfield Town, who are second in the form table and will be keen to keep up their momentum ahead of the play-offs.
On the flip side of course the Terriers may well rest players ahead of their play-off fixtures, but depending on how teams stand in the play-off places on the final day of the season, they may still be fighting for third or fourth place in order to have the second leg at home.
Effectively though, Exeter need to pick up a win and a draw at least to ensure safety in League One if Tranmere win both their matches.
Tranmere Rovers:
For Tranmere Rovers, even two wins from their two games against Stockport and Millwall might not be enough to stay up. With Les Parry's side lying two points adrift in the relegation zone, they are relying very much on the results of Gillingham and Exeter.
However, with the other teams having such tough fixtures, if Tranmere pick up four points it could well be enough to beat the drop, though this would mean that Gillingham and Exeter can only pick up one point from their remaining two games or Leyton Orient lose both of their fixtures.
Rovers though will be relegated this weekend if they lose and both Gillingham and Exeter pick up at least a draw in their respective fixtures.
Wycombe Wanderers:
Of all the teams battling to beat the drop, Wycombe Wanderers face the simplest equation if they are to stay up - win both games and hope Exeter and/or Gillingham lose both of theirs.
Should Wycombe win both of their games by heavy scorelines and Gillingham and/or Exeter draw one then lose a game heavily, then goal difference might come into play. However, this is looks unlikely, with Wycombe's biggest win this season a 3-0 success over Tranmere Rovers at Prenton Park.
That then is what it will take each team to stay up. It's certainly going to be an exciting end to the season and hopefully one for Tranmere Rovers that will end in a final bit of happiness.
Prediction:
I think we will beat the drop this year. I know we have Millwall to come on Saturday, but I think Exeter's fixtures are particularly tough and Gillingham have a couple of tough games too.
I don't think Exeter will beat Hartlepool on Saturday, nor Gillingham win against Southampton, so a draw for Tranmere against Millwall, at the least, would be huge. Assuming my predictions are correct, it would keep us at the most two points behind our relegation rivals and in a great position going into the game against Stockport on the final day. The question is, can we pick up our long awaited third away win of the seasn there?
It is tough to predict what will happen now though. Every game is like a Cup Final for teams battling against the drop. Will Les Parry end up a hero having guided Tranmere Rovers to safety, or will Rovers' season end with the disappointment and misery that has covered the club for large periods of the last twelve months?
Only time will tell, but hopefully Rovers will come away from the next two weeks with their League One place intact and with only better things to come.
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26/04/2010 16:04
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Nice One!
Might be worth putting the Up or Down thread on here mate
