By Nigel Ridgway
April 15 2006

NIGEL RIDGWAY, an experienced punter and betting shop owner of many years, believes that "The key to successful gambling is getting value for money." Nigel was once forced by local bookmakers, to stop writing a tipping column in a UK newspaper, because he was costing them a fortune.

GET IN THE GAME WITH NIGEL RIDGWAY 13-4-06

FOOTBALL

TROTTERS CAN KEEP IT TIGHT AT 13/5

Bolton v Chelsea - Sunday April 9th, 4.00pm ko, live on Sky Sports 1.

This looks a particularly tough game to call, so the value could lie with backing the draw at bet365.com’s 13/5. It’s true that the Trotters appear to be going backwards, but they’re particularly hard to break down at the Reebok – just ask Arsenal, Liverpool and Spurs - while Chelsea’s away form has been decidedly shaky recently. The Blues have only beaten West Brom in their last seven away matches and, while that run includes the trip to Barca, they have also drawn away to Everton, Aston Villa and Birmingham, and lost to Fulham and Middlesbrough. All in all, this match looks sure to be tight and, while Chelsea are the most likely winners, the draw is the advice. Also, don’t forget to check out bet365.com’s 14 dynamic In-Play markets on this game (kick off 12.45pm).

Bolton to draw @ 13/5

HOME FORM MAKES ROVERS THE BET AT 9/4

Blackburn v Liverpool - Sunday April 16th, 2.30pm ko, live on Sky Sports 1.

In Sunday’s meeting between Blackburn and Liverpool, the advice is again to oppose the visitors. Mark Hughes’ side have already beaten both Arsenal and Man United at Ewood Park, and their two defeats came against mid-table Newcastle and Everton, showing that they’re capable of producing their best performances against the better teams. They’re worth a bet at 9/4, but have a saver on the 1-1 draw at 11/2 as, despite their impressive 11-3-2 home record, they invariably concede a goal per game.

However, the bet of the weekend has to be on Rovers getting a quarter-ball start (currently 1.925), as you’ll only lose if Liverpool win the game. bet365.com’s Asian Handicap betting consistently provides excellent value as they bet to 102%, while their Premiership Accumulator Bonus pays out up to 60% more on accas including top-flight teams. Why go anywhere else for your footy bets!

Live Game Picks:

Blackburn @ 9/4
Blackburn to Draw @ 11/2
Blackburn (+1/4) @ 1.925

HORSE RACING
NATIONAL SCARE FOR BET365

As always, the Grand National was a thriller, and for bet365.com, it was very nearly an expensive one! Joint favourites Clan Royal (5/1) and Hedgehunter (5/1) had been well-backed throughout the week and both had a chance of glory coming off the final fence. However, the strong running of Numbersixvalverde (11/1) saved the day, although there were lots of winning each-way bets after the joint favourites came home 2nd and 3rd! A fifth-placed finish for Risk Accessor (66/1) was also great news for the bet365.com customers who backed the fifth horse past the post in the big race – as they got paid out at ¼ odds thanks to bet365.com’s generous place terms.

DOIRE A DUN DEAL AT 3/1

The National hero could bid to complete back-to-back victories in the Irish equivalent at Fairyhouse on Easter Monday (3.50). However, he’ll do well to beat the improving seven-year-old, Dun Doire, whose rating wasn’t big enough for him to get into the National, but whose connections will be eyeing his prize as some sort of compensation. A bet365.com price of 3/1 might not seem that generous considering the competitive nature of the race, but there’s likely to be even more to come over this stamina-sapping trip of 3m 5f. If he runs to form, he’s almost sure to win, but best of the rest could be Our Ben (14/1). Willie Mullins’ novice has enjoyed a good season, and will be fresher than most having not run since falling, uncharacteristically, in the Royal & Sun Alliance Chase at the Festival.

Irish Grand National Picks: Dun Doire @ 3/1 & Our Ben @ 14/1 (Each-way ¼ odds, 1.2.3.4)

RED CAN BE EASTER DELIGHT

Regular bet365.com customers will be aware by now that they’ve replicated their popular Channel 4 offer to include two Feature races every day. To take advantage, simply back a winner at 4/1 or more in a bet365.com Feature race and they’ll give you a free bet to the same stake (up to £50) on the next bet365 Feature Race. Why go anywhere else for your horse racing bets? Of course, the offer still applies to all Channel 4 races, which means that there are potentially seven free bets this weekend at Kempton, Haydock and Carlisle.

At the former track, the Ed Dunlop-trained Red Racketeer looks the one to pay for the Easter expenses by winning the Rosebery Handicap (3.15). The trainer can do no wrong at the moment, and the selection should be primed to win at the first time of asking this season. In the 2.45 race, a big field looks assured but it could pay to stick with those who have already run this year, and the improving Ludovico looks capable of landing his hat-trick here against some ring-rusty rivals.

SNOOKER
EBDON RIGHT ON CUE AT 28/1
WORLD CHAMPIONSHIP - Live on BBC Interactive starting Saturday, April 15th – LIVE BETTING AVAILABLE

After the Masters and the Grand National, another great betting event cues off this Saturday 15th April, as the Snooker World Championships gets under way in Sheffield. For the next 17 days, bet365.com’s snooker punters, who are now deprived for all but 9 weeks of the year, will get to feast on a massive range of pre-match markets and drool over our live In-Play service, which sees prices changing in real-time and (thanks to the BBC’s interactive service) covers every game in progress. But after last year’s shock winner Shaun Murphy at 150/1, who’s going to have the nerves to win in the City of Steel?

The draw has been kind to the defending champion Shaun Murphy, who has a couple of straightforward-looking opening games, and he looks assured of at least getting through to the quarter finals. However, at this stage, he could well surrender his crown to 2001 champion Peter Ebdon. Like Murphy, Ebdon has hardly been setting the green baize alight this year, but he always comes into his own in these longer pressure cooker matches and, as clearly the second-best player in his quarter. He looks great each-way value at bet365.com’s 28/1 (over four times the price of Murphy at 13/2), especially considering the indifferent form of some of the world’s top players going into this event.

If Ebdon gets to the semi’s he’ll face the winner of a very tough quarter to call, with either Ken Doherty or Crucible specialist Matthew Stevens his most likely opponents. However, the best strategy is to avoid these players until we know who’s emerged, and the second selection is a player from the top-half of the draw. Steven Maguire came into this event last year as world No.3 and left with his reputation intact after losing a classic opener 10-9 to O’Sullivan. His form this year has not been great (hence his generous bet365.com odds of 14/1), but he’s likely to come here well-prepared, and has a couple of easy matches to play himself into form.

World Championship Picks: Peter Ebdon @ 28/1 & Steven Maguire @ 14/1

bet365 latest World Snooker prices … Ronnie O’Sullivan 5/2, John Higgins 7/2, Shaun Murphy 13/2, Stephen Hendry 8/1. Mark Williams, Matthew Stevens 14/1, others on bet365.com website

GOLF
STICK WITH IN-FORM OLAZABAL AT 18/1
VERIZON HERITAGE

Starting April 13th - Live on Sky all four days, starting 9.00pm This week, we’re going to play-up some of our winnings from Jose Maria Olazabal (Each-way at 28/1 and Top European at 5/1) in bet365’s outright market at 18/1. That’s not a bad price considering that only one of the world’s top-5 is in opposition this week, and that Ollie is such great form right now, coming off the back of successive each-way finishes and a top-10 in the Players’ Championship. Of course, there’s a danger in siding with players who had a hard week in the Masters, but The Spaniard was only in contention for a few holes late on Sunday and, besides, every Heritage winner since 1969 has been won by a player coming on from Augusta.

Olazabal aside, that just leaves another 34 players to choose from (!), but we can whittle this list down to a more manageable size by concentrating on course form and no-one jumps off the page more than Davis Love III. The North Carolina native has had a love affair (sorry) with this event, having won it five times and, for once, he’s not favourite to win this week (that honour goes to the shaky Ernie Els at 9/1). That’s because his best form this year has come in matchplay, but such is his record here that he simply has to go into the staking plan at a tasty bet365 price of 16/1. The final selection goes to Stewart Cink at bet365.com’s 20/1. Cink is a dual-winner here, and played well for tenth place at the Masters (without being in the heat of battle), his third top-15 of the year.

Don’t forget, once the event tees off, you’ll still be able to get a bet on at bet365.com via their In-Play Console found on the homepage. The advice here is to back your selection before they reach the short 14th, as this was the toughest hole last year, averaging almost half a stroke over par.

The Verizon Heritage Three Off The Tee … Jose Maria Olazabal @ 18/1 (19/1 EWO), Davis Love @ 16/1, Stewart Cink @ 20/1. Each-way ¼ odds 1.2.3.4.5

MICKELSON 150/1 TO MATCH TIGER’S SLAM

After his victory in the Masters, bet365.com are now quoting Phil Mickelson at 150/1 to go on to complete the Grand Slam, and at 66/1 to emulate Tiger Woods by holding all four Majors at the same time - which he will do if he adds the US Open and the Open to his current collection of the US PGA and Masters. Since an indifferent start to the year by his standards, Mickelson has become the punters pal after hosing-up in Atlanta and now in Augusta, and is sure to attract plenty of support for the US Open, for which he gets a 6/1 quote from bet365.com. He’s also now 10/3 second favourite to win the US Money List, behind favourite Tiger Woods at 8/15.

Get in the game and be lucky!

Nigel