Latest news:

Club salaries versus performance - you get what you pay for
Discussion started by AccountLogicsllDeleted (IP Logged), 14 November, 2019 08:15
MoanerLesser
AccountLogicsllDeleted
14 November, 2019 08:15
I have only found the premiership data so far but it shows that in general clubs positions are almost aligned to salary. The most notable over performance is by Sheffield United who should be bottom of the Premiership. (If that continues Chris Wilder should be manager of the season) And Everton/Man U are under-performing.....

Anyway, I am struggling to find the league one salary table , so if anyone has found it....

[www.spotrac.com]#

Tom Bombadil
Tom Bombadil
14 November, 2019 10:20
Your right of course. Its a generalisation with odd exceptions. The exceptions occur when you get a particular set of circumstances. Good manager, decent improving set of players, decent ownership, great support. Sheffield Utd. tick a lot of these boxes and maybe we do as well.

Zint
Zint
14 November, 2019 18:07
Hang on, United and Tottenham have players on a huge wedge. So how come they are where they are in the table. Or Arsenal?

Overly simplistic.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 14/11/2019 18:09 by Zint.

MoanerLesser
AccountLogicsllDeleted
14 November, 2019 18:13
Quote:
Zint
Hang on, United and Tottenham have players on a huge wedge. So how come they are where they are in the table. Or Arsenal?
Overly simplistic.

Revisit at end of season!

Dan SWA
Dan SWA
14 November, 2019 18:50
CBJ on over half a million a year!

MoanerLesser
AccountLogicsllDeleted
14 November, 2019 19:40
Quote:
Dan SWA
CBJ on over half a million a year!
Old lira?

mrGr33n13
mrGr33n13
14 November, 2019 19:49
Quote:
Zint
Hang on, United and Tottenham have players on a huge wedge. So how come they are where they are in the table. Or Arsenal?
Overly simplistic.

men are taller than women

summer is warmer than spring

football clubs success closely correlates to squad salary.

you will find exceptions to that rule, but £££ is by far the biggest predictor of success.

sometimes sides over value players - see man and pogba. or their squad's salary is skewed by a small number of incredibly well payed players [arsenal - ozil].

leicester are a team that actively look for inefficiencies in the transfer market and are reaping the rewards. but it's a hard trend to buck and it's true for all leagues.

MoanerLesser
AccountLogicsllDeleted
14 November, 2019 20:38
Quote:
mrGr33n13
Quote:
Zint
Hang on, United and Tottenham have players on a huge wedge. So how come they are where they are in the table. Or Arsenal?
Overly simplistic.

men are taller than women

summer is warmer than spring

football clubs success closely correlates to squad salary.

you will find exceptions to that rule, but £
££ is by far the biggest predictor of success.

sometimes sides over value players - see man and pogba. or their squad's salary is skewed by a small number of incredibly well payed players [arsenal - ozil].

leicester are a team that actively look for inefficiencies in the transfer market and are reaping the rewards. but it's a hard trend to buck and it's true for all leagues.

Hard to argue with that!

mrGr33n13
mrGr33n13
14 November, 2019 20:52
there was a wonderful book called soccernomics that went over this.

managers and rtransfer fees dont matter, wages do

"While studies find no strong link between spending on transfers and performance, they find a very strong relationship between spending on wages and performance.

An analysis of England’s top two divisions from 2007 to 2016 confirmed this: It found that spending on wages accounted for 90% of a team’s success – almost a 100% correlation between a club’s salary bill and its league position. For instance, Manchester United spent 3.4 times the average on wages – the highest wage bill – and had the highest average league position of 3rd. At the other end of the spectrum, MK Dons spent 0.12 times the average, with an average league position of 43rd. Plot all the teams on a graph and you get a pretty neat line – as wages go up, so does a club’s league position.

Why is that? Doubling a player’s pay won’t make him twice as good, after all.

Well, high pay attracts high performers. Real Madrid can afford Ronaldo, Eibar can’t. If you have Ronaldo and others like him, you’ll win many matches.

Generally, players are paid what they’re worth, and if they aren’t, they’ll look elsewhere for a new role with better pay.

There are exceptions, of course. What about Leicester? They won the English Premier League with the 15th-highest wage bill. In a single season, the connection between wages and success is weaker than in the long term, as over one season luck can have a bigger influence. Leicester had a lot of luck, winning the league with a goal difference – that is, the net number of goals scored – of just 32 (the average for a champion is 53). Leicester played very well, with some standout performances, but they also benefited from all the regular title contenders suffering from poor seasons. The following season, natural order reasserted itself. Leicester fell back and the high wage-spending clubs returned to the top of the table.

In the long-run, the wages market is fairly efficient: The better a player is, the more he’ll earn. The more you spend on wages, the more successful your team will be.



interesting summary

[conscioused.org]

kennyspint
kennyspint
14 November, 2019 23:25
So I suspect we have massively over performed since we left the Vanarama league

mrGr33n13
mrGr33n13
14 November, 2019 23:35
Yup.

But that over performance is not just running hot.

We developed a national League left-forward into the best centre forward in the lower leagues - with hindsight we were likely paying Norwood a third of his market value.

We also picked up players who may have been undervalued due to characteristics such as age (Perkins), discipline history (Pringle) and pace / physique (Manny)

But we had a top third budget which will get you in the playoffs a reasonably high % of the time anyway.

MESSAGES->author
hong kong rover
15 November, 2019 07:12
Leicester have been superb in the transfer market, all those players such as Kante, Drinkwater, Mahrez, Maguire they bought in for next to nothing and then sold them on for millions n millions..Their Thai owner ( the one that died in the heli crash ) was/is one of the very few wealthy billionaire foreign owners that I had a bit of time for, he genuinely cared about the club, the city and its fans, he seemed decent enough...But there sure have been a few dodgy foreign owners blighting the English game eg That Lebanese headcase Sam Hammam is one for starters, befriending those notorious Cardiff hooligans n idiots...



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 15/11/2019 07:17 by hong kong rover.

Zint
Zint
15 November, 2019 08:57
Quote:
mrGr33n13
Quote:
Zint
Hang on, United and Tottenham have players on a huge wedge. So how come they are where they are in the table. Or Arsenal?
Overly simplistic.

men are taller than women

summer is warmer than spring

football clubs success closely correlates to squad salary.

you will find exceptions to that rule, but £££ is by far the biggest predictor of success.

sometimes sides over value players - see man and pogba. or their squad's salary is skewed by a small number of incredibly well payed players [arsenal - ozil].

leicester are a team that actively look for inefficiencies in the transfer market and are reaping the rewards. but it's a hard trend to buck and it's true for all leagues.

No doubt summer is warmer than spring, but the weather isn’t always great. Using one indicator doesn’t give you an answer.

As I said, overly simplistic. Exceptionalisim is always a more interesting route of study. I.e. rather than accept the perceived wisdom that kids from poor backgrounds don’t perform well in education look at why certain kids from poor backgrounds do well. It’s not all about luck.

mrGr33n13
mrGr33n13
15 November, 2019 09:09
When poor kids do well in school it's usually because their poor parents behave like the median rich parents.

My point about summer being warmer than spring is that exceptions do not negate the general rule.

Look at the link I posted.

Wage bills account for 90% of success and outliers rarely challenge that in a systematic way. There are cases like the Oakland baseball team where a flaw in the system is exploited and you can consistently buck the trend and compete on lower wages. But once the flaw is exposed the market become efficient again and you are left with £££ being the most important factor.

MoanerLesser
AccountLogicsllDeleted
15 November, 2019 09:32
Quote:
Zint
Quote:
mrGr33n13
Quote:
Zint
Hang on, United and Tottenham have players on a huge wedge. So how come they are where they are in the table. Or Arsenal?
Overly simplistic.

men are taller than women

summer is warmer than spring

football clubs success closely correlates to squad salary.


you will find exceptions to that rule, but £££ is by far the biggest predictor of success.

sometimes sides over value players - see man and pogba. or their squad's salary is skewed by a small number of incredibly well payed players [arsenal - ozil].

leicester are a team that actively look for inefficiencies in the transfer market and are reaping the rewards. but it's a hard trend to buck and it's true for all leagues.

No doubt summer is warmer than spring, but the weather isn’t always great. Using one indicator doesn’t give you an answer.

As I said, overly simplistic. Exceptionalisim is always a more interesting route of study. I.e. rather than accept the perceived wisdom that kids from poor backgrounds don’t perform well in education look at why certain kids from poor backgrounds do well. It’s not all about luck.

I take it you didn't bother to read Mr Grs posting that was from an article that used statistical analysis to demonstrate the point that success is almost certainly related to the wage bill, with exceptions now and again.

MESSAGES->author
Doogie'sGhost
15 November, 2019 11:30
Quote:
mrGr33n13
When poor kids do well in school it's usually because their poor parents behave like the median rich parents.
My point about summer being warmer than spring is that exceptions do not negate the general rule.

Look at the link I posted.

Wage bills account for 90% of success and outliers rarely challenge that in a systematic way. There are cases like the Oakland baseball team where a flaw in the system is exploited and you can consistently buck the trend and compete on lower wages. But once the flaw is exposed the market become efficient again and you are left with £££ being the most important factor.
I agree and people try to apply the moneyball theories too much to football. It worked in baseball because it is a massively stats driven game, where the regular season is 160+ games long. Stats will out over a long enough period like that. It's stopped working so well in baseball now because everyone gets it and interestingly enough Oakland never actually won anything. Moneyball just allowed them to massively outperform their owner's wage restrictions and be competitive for a few years.

mrGr33n13
mrGr33n13
15 November, 2019 11:46
Anyone interested in this sort of thing would do well to read michael lewis' moneyball. It's about baseball but any sports fan would enjoy the story. The film is great too. (Every Lewis book is a wild trip to be honest).

Fascinating, and I think Tranmere are deft at similar exploits in the players we get. Though often by circumstance rather than design.


Sorry, only registered users may post in this forum.