Bettors may have to look beyond the Big Four to find value in the Premier League but that doesn't mean its lacking in intrigue, says Richard Walker.
This Premier League season is proving increasingly troublesome - or in our language, harder to call.
The way things were going in August, come this time in the season an away banker would've been all the rage, surely. Could anyone seriously have foreseen quite such an inconsistent time for the Sheikh's boys?
Just shows you how quickly football can change and, while it pains me to say it from a bettor's stand-point, that the Premier League still holds intrigue...even if you have too often to delve below the 'Big Four' fixtures to find the unpredictably us football watchers crave.
The fact that Fulham and Manchester City are virtually identically-priced at around [2.75] to take all three points shows me that plenty in Betfairland are still fearful that Mark Hughes' side can catch light at any time. Yes, that's true - but it's certainly more likely to happen at home.
I'm putting Fulham's great home record together with the Blues' one win away from Eastlands when I recommend you back Roy Hodgson's team. The Draw is at [3.45], though perhaps laying City is the other option you might consider (to a [2.78] liability) if you're not certain the Whites will have quite enough.
They've let in a paltry five at the Cottage, mind you, and only 11 overall. Hodgson's approach, while it seems quite expansive and attacking, does still bear the hallmarks of his time in Italy with the suggestion that if we score one, that will most likely be enough to beat you.
City, with plenty of strikers at their disposal, have few of genuine threat. The exception, of course, is Robinho, although his midweek comments about a lack of hunger won't have done too much for dressing-room harmony. Jo - over-rated Brazilian, Ched Evans - raw Welshman, there's no embarrassment of riches. It's from midfield that City pose most threat, and in particular Stephen Ireland who tends to carry it more than most.
Yet the Whites have locked that area down time and again at home, even against loftier opposition than City's enigmatic imports and academy graduates.
I see Unders as the place to be for the 2,5 goals market. It's a [1.88] chance with Overs at [2.12]. One-nil to the home team is my primary Correct Score pick at [9.4], with 0-0 the cover on a possible deadlock, [12.5] to back.
The [7.2] about Draw/Fulham looks tempting to me, although it's always wise to play a couple of selections here, even to split percentage stakes. Perhaps Fulham/Fulham, a [5.0] chance, might deserve at least a quarter of your Half-Time/Full-Time allocation.
I suggested Andy Johnson the last time I previewed Fulham and he didn't disappoint for a First Goalscorer return. But I also had giant Norwegian centre-half Brede Hangeland in the reckoning. I'm going with him again, as a To Score (at any time) option, at roughly [14.0] when the market develops.
I think this result will tell us a lot about the way these two sides' seasons will shape up.
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