BRIDGING THE GAP

The current Premiership league table seems to have developed a natural order. Despite the great unpredictability of a game where a team can go from finishing third in Division One, to the UEFA Cup and back down to Division One again in the space of just two years (i.e. Ipswich), broadly speaking it is not especially difficult to imagine where teams might end up next May. Or is it?

I mean, how likely is it that Arsenal, Liverpool and You-Know-Who will finish outside of the top five? Chelsea, Leeds and Newcastle will probably all huff and puff but ultimately fall short of really competing for the title. Spurs and Villa never seem to go too far up or down from their positions of mediocrity and, despite the example of Ipswich, if the cheque book doesn't get an airing before August, you can't imagine the Baggies having anything but a relegation fight on their hands.

But the one team which stands out as the great unknown in all of this is our beloved City. As the biggest spenders in Europe this summer (with one obvious exception) Kevin Keegan has assembled a squad nicely stocked with internationals and established stars. The acquisition of Sylvain Distin - arguably Newcastle's outstanding defender last season - was a fantastic coup. In Nicolas Anelka, City have one of the few strikers in world football capable of eclipsing the Henrys, Owens and the Hasslebainks of this world in becoming the top striker in the Premiership. In a recent poll, City's new goalkeeper was voted the greatest of all time. Add to this mix the captain of the African Champions (Marc-Vivien Foe) and three promising under-21s (at a combined cost of around £5m) and the prospects for City look extremely positive.

Most City fans expect great things from Keegan's men. Many believe that our impact upon the Premiership will be instant and our manager himself has spoken of his aspiration (if not prediction) of a top-four finish this season. But before we get too carried away, laughing off comparisons between Anelka and Gerry Creany, Foe and Ged Brannan (etc. etc.), don't we need to take a dose of realism?

There is no doubt that we have a fine array of foreign stars to complement our British contingent. But unlike the last time we were a top six side, i.e. the early nineties, there are now enough foreign stars in the Premiership to fill twenty teams. Finishing in the top few places means doing better than a whole host of other established clubs. Take Blackburn, tipped by the bookies to meet with mid-table obscurity at best. This is a club that could claim to have given the World Cup three of its best eleven players (Friedel, Tugay and Duff). Sunderland (Sorenson, Reyna, Phillips), West Ham (Di Canio, Kanoute, Cole, Sinclair) and even Bolton (Okocha, Djorkaeff, Ricketts) are just three other "average" clubs with their own list of stars who we will have to finish above before we can even think about taking on the current top six.

Despite our dominance last season and the magnitude of our signings, there is still a gap to be bridged. We are clearly stronger than we were two seasons ago on our last return to the big time. We have a manager who has already taken this league by storm with Newcastle. We have a board which seems capable of combining sound business acumen with genuine ambition. Yet some would still more than settle for seventeenth place. Are these people just incurable pessimists, afraid to acknowledge the improvement before them in case it should all come tumbling down? Or are they realists who recognise the unforgiving nature of the Premiership, the difficulties in moulding a large number of foreign imports into a team that cares, and the value of a settled squad?

For what it's worth, I predict we'll finish tenth. Not solely because, whatever happens, I can't be more than ten positions away from being right, but because I recognise the opportunities and dangers in pretty much equal measure. I really hope that King Kev can do what he did at Newcastle and I won't be especially surprised if he does. I'm just prepared for the possibility that, in today's Premiership, it might just take a little longer.

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