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Re: 130-goal - Annual Arsene Wenger's teams collapsing during wintry months
Posted by: Merlin96
Date: 05/01/2018 04:39
Aug to Dec 2017 League Performance … WLL WDW WLWW LWWW LDDWDWD
Jan to May 2018 League Performance … D

A horrid December 2017 with 2W 4D 1L which derailed our attempt to regain Top-4 status.
Going by past trend, we will not fare much better during January/February period with draw against Chelski.
This is a perennial “French Spine November Blip” event where we are out of title race during wintry months; and why we never win consecutive titles under Arsene Wenger.


January 3, 2018 -- Round #22, Match #32
Arsenal vs Chelski
[Wilshere, Bellerin]


January 6, 2018 -- Round #22, Match #33 FA Cup Round #3
Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal []

January 10, 2018 -- Round #22, Match #34 Carabao Cup semi 1L
Chelski v Arsenal [/size][]

January 14, 2018 -- Round #23, Match #35
Bournemouth v Arsenal [/size][]

January 20, 2018 -- Round #24, Match #36
Arsenal vs Crystal Palace []

January 24, 2018 -- Round #24, Match #37 Carabao Cup semi 2L
Arsenal vs Chelski [/size] []

January 27, 2018 -- Round #24, Match #38 FA Cup Round #4
Arsenal []

January 30, 2018 -- Round #25, Match #39
Swansea City vs Arsenal []


The expectation for 130-goal 2017/18 season will be:
The STRIKERS are Alexis Sanchez, Lacazette, Oliver Giroud, Theo Walcott, Danny Welbeck, Alex Iwobi, Eddie Nketiah and Chuba Akpom.

STRIKERS contributed ..... 55.93% out of 65% expectation … 33 out of 84 goals expectation.
MIDFIELD contributed ...... 20.34% out of 25% expectation … 12 out of 33 goals expectation.
DEFENDER contributed ... 20.34% out of 07% expectation … 12 out of 09 goals which exceeded expectation.
"Dubious goal"..................... 3.39% out of 03% expectation ….. 2 out of 04 goals expectation.

STRIKERS and MIDFIELD are struggling to score; with MIDFIELD not even scoring 50% of the goal expectation.
Forward-3 in Alexis–Lacazette–Ozil is woeful and not scoring freely.
Attacking Midfielder in Ramsey, Xhaka and Wilshere are not scoring regularly enough.
Welbeck, Walcott and Iwobi are awful in front of goal.


Maximum no. of games predicted = 38 + (6+6) Europa Cup + 5 Tin Cup + 5 FA Cup = 60 games.
59 goals scored =
1.84 goals per game after playing 32 games overall.
2.54 goals per game for remaining 28 games to reach 130 goals.
45% of 130 goals after playing 53% of expected 60 games.

….. 4 goals scored = 1.33 goals per game after playing 3 League Cup games.
… 14 goals scored = 2.33 goals per game after playing 6 Europa Cup games.
….. 1 goals scored = 1.00 goals per game after playing Community Shield (FA Cup Round #3 in Jan 2018).
… 40 goals scored = 1.82 goals per game after playing 22 League games.

We will not score even 100 goals this season. Simply we do not have a united team but a team of misfits and disinterested players.

Community Shield is the 1st game for this season.

Sead Kolasinac scored the first goal of the season during Community Shield.
Sead Kolasinac scored the first Europa Cup goal.
Walcott scored the first League Cup goal.
Lacazette scored the first league goal of the season.

Xhaka is the 20th goal scorer.

The latest goal-scorer will be indicated at top of list:

….. Total ----- EPL - EC - FA -- CC
….. 00 ... 00 ... 00 - 00 -- 00 -- 00 --- Coquelin
….. 00 ... 00 ... 00 - 00 -- 00 -- 00 --- Ainsley Maitland-Niles
….. 00 ... 00 ... 00 - 00 -- 00 -- 00 --- Santi Cazorla
….. 00 ... 00 ... 00 - 00 -- 00 -- 00 --- Reiss Nelson
….. 00 ... 00 ... 00 - 00 -- 00 -- 00 --- Koscielny
….. 00 ... 00 ... 00 - 00 -- 00 -- 00 --- Calum Chambers

….. 01 ... 01 ... 01 - 00 -- 00 -- 00 --- Granit Xhaka
….. 02 ... 01 ... 00 - 01 -- 00 -- 00 --- Mo Elneny
….. 04 ... 02 ... 01 - 01 -- 00 -- 00 --- "own" goal or "dubious" goal
….. 06 ... 02 ... 01 - 01 -- 00 -- 00 --- Jack Wilshere
….. 07 ... 01 ... 00 - 01 -- 00 -- 00 --- Debuchy
….. 09 ... 02 ... 02 - 00 -- 00 -- 00 --- Shkodran Mustafi
….. 11 ... 02 ... 00 - 00 -- 00 -- 02 --- Eddie Nketiah
….. 15 ... 04 ... 04 - 00 -- 00 -- 00 --- Mesut Ozil
….. 16 ... 01 ... 01 - 00 -- 00 -- 00 --- Per Mertesacker
….. 17 ... 01 ... 01 - 00 -- 00 -- 00 --- Alex Iwobi
….. 19 ... 02 ... 02 - 00 -- 00 -- 00 --- Nacho Monreal
….. 20 ... 01 ... 00 - 01 -- 00 -- 00 --- Rob Holding
….. 24 ... 04 ... 00 - 03 -- 00 -- 01 --- Theo Walcott
….. 26 ... 02 ... 02 - 00 -- 00 -- 00 --- Bellerin
….. 34 ... 08 ... 07 - 01 -- 00 -- 00 --- Alexis Sanchez
….. 41 ... 07 ... 04 - 03 -- 00 -- 00 --- Olivier Giroud
….. 44 ... 03 ... 03 - 00 -- 00 -- 00 --- Aaron Ramsey
….. 48 ... 04 ... 03 - 00 -- 00 -- 01 --- Danny Welbeck
….. 56 ... 08 ... 08 - 00 -- 00 -- 00 --- Alexandre Lacazette
….. 59 ... 03 ... 01 - 01 -- 01 -- 00 --- Sead Kolasinac

We had scored 40 goals after 22 league games.

01) Lacazette................ ..8 goals out of 22 goals expectation
02) Alexis...................... .. 8 goals out of 15 goals expectation
03) Giroud.................... .. 7 goals out of 15 goals expectation
04) Walcott................... .. 4 goals out of 15 goals expectation
05) Welbeck................. .. 4 goals out of 12 goals expectation
06) Ozil ........................ .. 4 goals out of 06 goals expectation
07) Ramsey.................. .. 3 goals out of 12 goals expectation
08) Kolasinac............... … 3 goals out of 01 goals which exceeded expectation
09) Monreal.................. … 2 goals out of 01 goals which exceeded expectation
10) Nketiah.................. … 2 goals out of 00 goals which exceeded expectation
11) Mustafi.................... .. 2 goals out of 01 goals which exceeded expectation
12) Bellerin................... .. 2 goals out of 01 goals which exceeded expectation
13) Wilshere................. .. 2 goals out of 05 goals expectation
14) “Dubious Goal” ...... .. 2 goals out of 04 goals expectation
15) Iwobi....................... .. 1 goals out of 05 goals expectation
16) Mertesacker ........... .. 1 goals out of 02 goals expectation
17) Xhaka .................... .. 1 goals out of 05 goals expectation
18) Holding................ …. 1 goals out of 0 goals which exceeded expectation
19) Debuchy................ … 1 goals out of 0 goals which exceeded expectation
20) Elneny.................... .. 1 goals out of 01 goals which met expectation

21) Maitland-Niles ......... .. 0 goals out of 00 goals expectation
22) Koscielny ............... .. 0 goals out of 02 goals expectation
23) Chambers............... .. 0 goals out of 01 goal expectation
24) Coquelin................. .. 0 goals out of 01 goals expectation
25) Akpom.................... .. 0 goals out of 00 goal expectation
26) Cazorla................... .. 0 goals out of 01 goals expectation
27) Reiss Nelson .......... .. 0 goals out of 02 goals expectation
28) Joe Willock ............. .. 0 goals out of 00 goals expectation

49 assists out of 59 goals scored.

Chelski (h): Holding headed into box and Wilshere scored.
Chelski (h): Welbeck attacked the ball, Alonso weak clearance and Bellerin side-footed home.

Penalties –– 4 no. awarded –– 4 no. converted : x – 0 – missed; .
….. Total ----- EPL – EC – FA – CC– Missed
….. 1 ..... 1 ….. 1 ….. 0 ….. 0 ….. 0 ---- 0 --- Lacazette – WBA (h)
….. 2 ..... 1 ….. 0 ….. 1 ….. 0 ….. 0 ---- 0 --- Giroud – BATE (A)
….. 3 ..... 1 ….. 1 ….. 0 ….. 0 ….. 0 ---- 0 --- Alexis – Burnley (A)
….. 4 ..... 1 ….. 0 ….. 1 ….. 0 ….. 0 ---- 0 --- Giroud – BATE (H)


Assist ----- EPL – EC – FA – CC – OE – SO – PEN
….. 6 … ..... 6 ….. 0 ….. 0 ….. 0 ---- 0 ….. 0 ….. 2 --- Aaron Ramsey
….. 5 … ..... 4 ….. 0 ….. 1 ….. 0 ---- 0 ….. 0 ….. 0 --- Granit Xhaka (including Community Shield)
….. 5 … ..... 0 ….. 5 ….. 0 ….. 0 ---- 0 ….. 2 ….. 1 --- Theo Walcott (Koln 2 blocked shots) (BATE o.g., penalty)
….. 5 … ..... 4 ….. 0 ….. 0 ….. 1 ---- 1 ….. 0 ….. 0 --- Alexis Sanchez
….. 4 … ..... 4 ….. 0 ….. 0 ….. 0 ---- 0 ….. 2 ….. 0 --- Mesut Ozil
….. 4 … ..... 4 ….. 0 ….. 0 ….. 0 ---- 0 ….. 0 ….. 0 --- Sead Kolasinac
….. 4 … ..... 2 ….. 2 ….. 0 ….. 0 ---- 0 ….. 0 ….. 0 --- Wilshere
….. 4 … ..... 4 ….. 0 ….. 0 ….. 0 ---- 0 ….. 0 ….. 0 --- Lacazette
….. 2 … ..... 2 ….. 0 ….. 0 ….. 0 ---- 1 ….. 0 ….. 0 --- Bellerin
….. 2 … ..... 1 ….. 0 ….. 0 ….. 1 ---- 0 ….. 0 ….. 0 --- Mo Elneny
….. 2 … ..... 1 ….. 1 ….. 0 ….. 0 ---- 0 ….. 0 ….. 0 --- Danny Welbeck
….. 2 … ..... 1 ….. 1 ….. 0 ….. 0 ---- 0 ….. 0 ….. 0 --- Alex Iwobi
….. 1 … ..... 1 ….. 0 ….. 0 ….. 0 ---- 0 ….. 0 ….. 0 --- Rob Holding
….. 1 … ..... 0 ….. 1 ….. 0 ….. 0 ---- 0 ….. 0 ….. 0 --- Mertesacker
….. 1 … ..... 0 ….. 0 ….. 0 ….. 1 ---- 0 ….. 0 ….. 0 --- Coquelin
….. 1 … ..... 0 ….. 0 ….. 0 ….. 1 ---- 0 ….. 0 ….. 0 --- Debuchy
….. 0 … ..... 0 ….. 0 ….. 0 ….. 0 ---- 0 ….. 0 ….. 1 --- Mustafi
….. 49 assists in total

Title-Contender Golden Gloves – Clean Sheets in Premier League:
… 12 – De Gea;
… 11 – Courtois;
… 11 – Ederson;
… 10 – Nick Pope;

….. 9 – Cech;
….. 8 – Mignolet;
….. 8 – Lloris;

….. 4 – Pickford;
….. 4 – Fraser Forster;
….. 3 – Butland;

All Top-6 team goalies (Nick Pope is the exception) kept the most clean-sheets compare to the rest.
Nick Pope is the surprise find of the season.
A geriatric Cech is still amongst the Top-5 goalie in keeping clean-sheets.


Home Form – “Traditional Top-7 Big Club”:
….. W … D … L ….. F ….. A … +/- __ Points
… 10 ….. 1 … 0 … 39 ….. 6 … 33 … … 31 … Abu Dhabi City
….. 8 ….. 2 … 1 … 21 ….. 3 … 18 … … 26 … Manchester United
….. 8 ….. 2 … 1 … 27 … 14 … 13 … … 26 … Arsenal
….. 8 ….. 1 … 2 … 21 ….. 7 … 14 … … 25 … Chelski
….. 6 ….. 5 … 0 … 21 ….. 4 … 17 … … 23 … Liverpool
….. 6 ….. 4 … 1 … 24 … 10 … 14 … … 22 … Tiny Totts
….. 6 ….. 1 … 4 … 17 … 15 ….. 2 … … 19 … Everton


Anfield and Etihad are fortress with both teams remain unbeaten at home.
Home form will be the key as to whether Arsenal will regain Top-4 status.
We must now win all our home games, including against Top-6 teams.


Away Form – “Traditional Top-7 Big Club”:
….. W … D … L ….. F ….. A … +/- __ Points
… 10 ….. 1 … 0 … 25 ….. 4 … 21 … … 31 … Abu Dhabi City
….. 7 ….. 1 … 3 … 20 … 12 … 11 … … 22 … Tiny Totts
….. 6 ….. 3 … 2 … 21 … 11 … 10 … … 21 … Manchester United
….. 6 ….. 3 … 2 … 18 ….. 9 ….. 9 … … 21 … Chelski
….. 6 ….. 3 … 2 … 29 … 21 ….. 8 … … 21 … Liverpool
….. 3 ….. 4 … 4 … 13 … 16 …. -3 … … 13 … Arsenal
….. 1 ….. 5 … 5 ….. 8 … 19 …-11 … ….. 8 … Everton


It is their mediocre away form that is the primary reason why ManU, Chelski, Tiny Totts and Liverpool are out of title race; and why Arsenal and Everton are still struggling.
Man City will win the title in January 2018 if they extend their a 100% away record after 22 league games; and remaining unbeaten in 2018.
Arsenal?
Arsenal is effectively out of the title race in October 2017.
Top-4 status is possible if we start winning away games and remain unbeaten in 2018.


Table A – “Traditional Top-7 Big Club” Mini-League:
….. W … D … L ….. F ….. A … +/- __ Points
….. 5 ….. 1 … 0 … 16 ….. 4 … 12 … … 16 … Abu Dhabi City
….. 4 ….. 1 … 2 … 11 ….. 4 ….. 7 … … 13 … Manchester United
….. 3 ….. 4 … 1 ….. 8 ….. 5 ….. 3 … … 13 … Chelski
….. 2 ….. 3 … 3 … 14 … 17 …. -3 … … 10 … Arsenal
….. 2 ….. 0 … 4 ….. 9 … 10 …. -1 … ….. 6 … Tiny Totts
….. 1 ….. 3 … 2 ….. 7 … 11 …. -4 … ….. 6 … Liverpool
….. 0 ….. 3 … 5 ….. 4 … 18 …-14 … ….. 3 … Everton

Man City is still unbeaten against Top-7 teams and title race is as good as over by January 2018.
Barring Man City, Arsenal results against Top-6 teams are comparable to the rest of the Top-6 Pack.


Table B – Comparison of the Top-7 team against Bottom-13 teams:
….. W … D … L ….. F ….. A … +/- __ Points
… 15 ….. 1 … 0 … 50 ….. 9 … 41 … … 46 … Abu Dhabi City
… 11 ….. 4 … 0 … 40 … 11 … 29 … … 37 … Liverpool
… 10 ….. 4 … 1 … 30 ….. 8 … 22 … … 34 … Manchester United
… 11 ….. 0 … 3 … 33 … 11 … 22 … … 33 … Chelski
….. 9 ….. 5 … 1 … 31 … 11 … 20 … … 32 … Tiny Totts
….. 9 ….. 3 … 2 … 26 … 11 … 15 … … 30 … Arsenal
….. 7 ….. 3 … 4 … 22 … 18 ….. 4 … … 24 … Everton

Man City and Liverpool are still unbeaten against Bottom-13 teams.
Table B indicated that winning a Top-4 spots depends very much on the ability of teams to remain unbeaten and to collect maximum points against Bottom-13 teams.

Table B indicates that it is a close fight for 2nd to 4th spot.
Everton is out of Top-4 race.

Table C – Comparison to Title Winners and 2007/08 season:
Season … Finish …. W …. D …. L ….. F ….. A … +/- … Points
2007/08 ….. 3rd …. 24 … 11 ….. 3 … 74 … 31 … 43 … 83 points – Arsenal
2015/16 ….. 1st ….. 23 … 12 ….. 3 … 68 … 36 … 32 … 81 points – Leicester City
2016/17 ….. 1st ….. 30 ….. 3 ….. 5 … 85 … 33 … 52 … 93 points – Chelski
2016/17 ….. 5th ….. 23 ….. 6 ….. 9 … 77 … 44 … 33 … 75 points – Arsenal

2017/18 ….. 4th ….. 24 ….. 7 ….. 7 … 77 … 36 … 41 … 79 points – Arsenal prediction to clinch 4th spot
2017/18 ….. 4th ….. 12 ….. 5 ….. 5 … 40 … 28 … 12 … 39 points – Arsenal after Round #22

We need to collect 40 points – 13W 1D 2L – from remaining 16 games to achieve 79 points.
Apparently, we are maintaining our average 7 losses for the past 7 seasons.

2015/16 Leicester City proved that an inferior team can still be a title-winner by being unbeaten against Bottom-12 teams, and loses only 3 games against Top-8 teams.

A Top-4 finish requires Arsenal to remain unbeaten at home, remain unbeaten against Top-7 teams and beat all Bottom-13 teams now.

Arsenal 2016/17 Results Break-Down:
….. W … D … L ….. F ….. A … +/- __ Points
….. 3 ….. 3 … 6 … 19 … 21 …. -2 … … 12 … Top-7 Result
… 20 ….. 3 … 3 … 58 … 23 … 35 … … 63 … Bottom-13 Result

Arsenal 2017/18 Results Break-Down:
….. W … D … L ….. F ….. A … +/- __ Points
….. 2 ….. 3 … 3 … 14 … 17 …. -3 … ….. 9 … Top-7 Result
….. 9 ….. 3 … 2 … 26 … 11 … 15 … … 30 … Bottom-13 Result

This season Arsenal result of 2W 3D 3L against Top-7 teams is no great improvement from last season overall result of 3W 3D 6L. We need to start beating Top-6 teams now.

Worse, we did not improved against Bottom-13 teams with our goal-shy forwards and midfielders.
We are 9W 3D 2L in comparison to last season 20W 3D 3L, which extrapolated to “worse than last season” performance.

A damming statement on Arsene Wenger’s inability to find and coach players to play the way he wanted WengerBall to be played.

These wintry months – from November to February – , may confirm we did not improved under Arsene Wenger for the past 5 seasons (or even after 2007/08 season), declining into mediocrity.
Same old Crab Football with our inability to see off teams and winning ugly.

Abu Dhabi City, Chelski, Liverpool and Tiny Totts and even ManU are starting to getting their acts together, and start to accelerate away from the Pack in 2018.
Arsenal is imploding and going down the Table faster than Christmas dressings in the New Year.

………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
During this 3rd Quarter, Man City, ManU, Liverpool and Chelski are maintaining status quo and just ahead of the chasing Pack.
Tiny Totts may be the only team that can collect 12 out of 12 points over this festive season programme; challenging Man City to the finish line.

Even if Man City is having a blip, they are still way ahead with a 14 points lead and the chasing Pack – except Tiny Totts – is also inconsistent and unable to build up a head of steam to overhaul Man City.

Top-10 Teams after 3rd Quarter Round #20 to #29:
….. W … D … L ….. F ….. A … +/- __ Points
….. 3 ….. 0 … 0 ….. 9 ….. 2 ….. 7 … ….. 9 … Liverpool
….. 2 ….. 1 … 0 ….. 9 ….. 2 ….. 7 … ….. 7 … Chelski
….. 2 ….. 1 … 0 ….. 8 ….. 3 ….. 5 … ….. 7 … Tiny Totts
….. 2 ….. 1 … 0 ….. 4 ….. 1 ….. 3 … ….. 7 … Abu Dhabi City
….. 1 ….. 2 … 0 ….. 4 ….. 2 ….. 2 … ….. 5 … Manchester United

….. 1 ….. 2 … 0 ….. 7 ….. 6 ….. 1 … ….. 5 … Bournemouth
….. 1 ….. 2 … 0 ….. 6 ….. 5 ….. 1 … ….. 5 … Arsenal
….. 1 ….. 2 … 0 ….. 6 ….. 5 ….. 1 … ….. 5 … West Ham United
….. 1 ….. 1 … 1 ….. 1 ….. 1 ….. 1 … ….. 4 … Newcastle
….. 1 ….. 1 … 1 ….. 4 ….. 4 ….. 0 … ….. 4 … Crystal Palace

….. 1 ….. 0 … 2 ….. 5 ….. 4 ….. 1 … ….. 3 … Leicester City
….. 1 ….. 0 … 2 ….. 4 ….. 5 …. -1 … ….. 3 … Watford
….. 1 ….. 0 … 2 ….. 2 ….. 8 …. -6 … ….. 3 … Swansea City
….. 0 ….. 2 … 1 ….. 3 ….. 4 …. -1 … ….. 2 … Burnley
….. 0 ….. 2 … 1 ….. 2 ….. 3 …. -1 … ….. 2 … West Bromwich Albion

….. 0 ….. 2 … 1 ….. 2 ….. 4 …. -2 … ….. 2 … Brighton
….. 0 ….. 2 … 1 ….. 1 ….. 4 …. -3 … ….. 2 … Huddersfield
….. 0 ….. 1 … 2 ….. 1 ….. 4 …. -3 … ….. 1 … Everton
….. 0 ….. 1 … 2 ….. 3 ….. 7 …. -4 … ….. 1 … Southampton
….. 0 ….. 1 … 2 ….. 1 ….. 7 …. -6 … ….. 1 … Stoke City

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