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Re: 130-goal - Annual Arsene Wenger's teams collapsing during wintry months
Posted by: Merlin96
Date: 29/12/2017 05:16
WLL WDW WLWW LWWW LDDWDW -- August to December 2017 League Performance:

December 2, 2017 -- Round #15, Match #23
Arsenal 1-3 ManU [Lacazette]

December 7, 2017 -- Round #15, Match #24
Arsenal vs BATE [/size][Debuchy, Walcott, Wilshere, o.g., Giroud(pen), Elneny]

December 9, 2017 -- Round #16, Match #25
Southampton 1-1 Arsenal [Giroud]

December 12, 2017 -- Round #17, Match #26
West Ham United 0-0 Arsenal []

December 16, 2017 -- Round #18, Match #27
Arsenal 1-0 Newcastle United [Ozil]

December 19, 2017 -- Round #18, Match #28
Arsenal 1-0 West Ham United [Welbeck] League Cup

December 22, 2017 -- Round #19, Match #29
Arsenal 3-3 Liverpool [Alexis, Xhaka, Ozil]


December 28, 2017 -- Round #20, Match #30
Crystal Palace 2-3 Arsenal
[Mustafi, Alexis, Alexis]

December 31, 2017 -- Round #21, Match #31
West Bromwich Albion v Arsenal []


The expectation for 130-goal 2017/18 season will be:
The STRIKERS are Alexis Sanchez, Lacazette, Oliver Giroud, Theo Walcott, Danny Welbeck, Alex Iwobi, Eddie Nketiah and Chuba Akpom.

STRIKERS contributed ..... 58.93% out of 65% expectation … 33 out of 84 goals expectation.
MIDFIELD contributed ...... 19.64% out of 25% expectation … 11 out of 33 goals expectation.
DEFENDER contributed ... 19.64% out of 07% expectation … 11 out of 09 goals which exceeded expectation.
"Dubious goal"..................... 1.79% out of 03% expectation ….. 1 out of 04 goals expectation.

Owen Goal scored only one goal; a reflection on our Crab Football that prefer to walk the ball into goal.
STRIKERS and MIDFIELD are not scoring enough goals; not even scoring 50% of the goal expectation.


Maximum no. of games predicted = 38 + (6+6) Europa Cup + 5 Tin Cup + 5 FA Cup = 60 games.
56 goals scored =
1.87 goals per game after playing 30 games overall.
2.47 goals per game for remaining 30 games to reach 130 goals.
43% of 130 goals after playing 50% of expected 60 games.

….. 4 goals scored = 1.33 goals per game after playing 3 League Cup games.
… 14 goals scored = 2.33 goals per game after playing 6 Europa Cup games.
….. 1 goals scored = 1.00 goals per game after playing Community Shield (FA Cup Round #3 in Jan 2018).
… 37 goals scored = 1.85 goals per game after playing 20 League games.

We will not score even 100 goals this season if we do not start hammering teams with 3-0 or 4-0 or 5-0 or 6-0 score.

Community Shield is the 1st game for this season.

Sead Kolasinac scored the first goal of the season during Community Shield.
Sead Kolasinac scored the first Europa Cup goal.
Walcott scored the first League Cup goal.
Lacazette scored the first league goal of the season.

Mustafi is the 15th goal scorer.
Debuchy is the 16th goal scorer.
Wilshere is the 17th goal scorer.
Owen Goal is the 18th goal scorer.
Elneny is the 19th goal scorer.
Xhaka is the 20th goal scorer.

The latest goal-scorer will be indicated at top of list:

….. Total ----- EPL - EC - FA -- CC
….. 00 ... 00 ... 00 - 00 -- 00 -- 00 --- Coquelin
….. 00 ... 00 ... 00 - 00 -- 00 -- 00 --- Ainsley Maitland-Niles
….. 00 ... 00 ... 00 - 00 -- 00 -- 00 --- Santi Cazorla
….. 00 ... 00 ... 00 - 00 -- 00 -- 00 --- Reiss Nelson
….. 00 ... 00 ... 00 - 00 -- 00 -- 00 --- Koscielny
….. 00 ... 00 ... 00 - 00 -- 00 -- 00 --- Calum Chambers

….. 01 ... 01 ... 01 - 00 -- 00 -- 00 --- Granit Xhaka
….. 02 ... 01 ... 00 - 01 -- 00 -- 00 --- Mo Elneny
….. 03 ... 01 ... 00 - 01 -- 00 -- 00 --- "own" goal or "dubious" goal
….. 04 ... 01 ... 00 - 01 -- 00 -- 00 --- Jack Wilshere
….. 05 ... 01 ... 00 - 01 -- 00 -- 00 --- Debuchy
….. 07 ... 02 ... 02 - 00 -- 00 -- 00 --- Shkodran Mustafi
….. 09 ... 02 ... 00 - 00 -- 00 -- 02 --- Eddie Nketiah
….. 13 ... 04 ... 04 - 00 -- 00 -- 00 --- Mesut Ozil
….. 14 ... 01 ... 01 - 00 -- 00 -- 00 --- Per Mertesacker
….. 15 ... 01 ... 01 - 00 -- 00 -- 00 --- Alex Iwobi
….. 17 ... 02 ... 02 - 00 -- 00 -- 00 --- Nacho Monreal
….. 18 ... 01 ... 00 - 01 -- 00 -- 00 --- Rob Holding
….. 22 ... 04 ... 00 - 03 -- 00 -- 01 --- Theo Walcott
….. 23 ... 01 ... 01 - 00 -- 00 -- 00 --- Bellerin
….. 31 ... 08 ... 07 - 01 -- 00 -- 00 --- Alexis Sanchez
….. 38 ... 07 ... 04 - 03 -- 00 -- 00 --- Olivier Giroud
….. 41 ... 03 ... 03 - 00 -- 00 -- 00 --- Aaron Ramsey
….. 45 ... 04 ... 03 - 00 -- 00 -- 01 --- Danny Welbeck
….. 53 ... 08 ... 08 - 00 -- 00 -- 00 --- Alexandre Lacazette
….. 56 ... 03 ... 01 - 01 -- 01 -- 00 --- Sead Kolasinac

We had scored 37 goals after 20 league games.

01) Lacazette................ ..8 goals out of 22 goals expectation
02) Alexis...................... .. 8 goals out of 15 goals expectation
03) Giroud.................... .. 7 goals out of 15 goals expectation
04) Walcott................... .. 4 goals out of 15 goals expectation
05) Welbeck................. .. 4 goals out of 12 goals expectation
06) Ozil ........................ .. 4 goals out of 06 goals expectation
07) Ramsey.................. .. 3 goals out of 12 goals expectation
08) Kolasinac............... … 3 goals out of 01 goals which exceeded expectation
09) Monreal.................. … 2 goals out of 01 goals which exceeded expectation
10) Nketiah.................. … 2 goals out of 00 goals which exceeded expectation
11) Mustafi.................... .. 2 goals out of 01 goals which exceeded expectation
12) Iwobi....................... .. 1 goals out of 05 goals expectation
13) Wilshere................. .. 1 goals out of 05 goals expectation
14) “Dubious Goal” ...... .. 1 goals out of 04 goals expectation
15) Mertesacker ........... .. 1 goals out of 02 goals expectation
16) Xhaka .................... .. 1 goals out of 05 goals expectation
17) Holding................ …. 1 goals out of 0 goals which exceeded expectation
18) Debuchy................ … 1 goals out of 0 goals which exceeded expectation
19) Bellerin................... .. 1 goals out of 01 goals which met expectation
20) Elneny.................... .. 1 goals out of 01 goals which met expectation

21) Maitland-Niles ......... .. 0 goals out of 00 goals expectation
22) Koscielny ............... .. 0 goals out of 02 goals expectation
23) Chambers............... .. 0 goals out of 01 goal expectation
24) Coquelin................. .. 0 goals out of 01 goals expectation
25) Akpom.................... .. 0 goals out of 00 goal expectation
26) Cazorla................... .. 0 goals out of 01 goals expectation
27) Reiss Nelson .......... .. 0 goals out of 02 goals expectation
28) Joe Willock ............. .. 0 goals out of 00 goals expectation

48 assists out of 56 goals scored.
Man City: Ramsey pass and Lacazette scored.
Tiny Totts: Ozil freekick and Mustafi looping header.
Tiny Totts: Lacazette crossed and Alexis scored.
Burnley: Ramsey pushed in the box and Alexis scored the penalty.
Huddersfield (h): Xhaka pass, Ramsey back-heel and Lacazette scored.
Huddersfield (h): Ozil cross and Giroud scored.
Huddersfield (h): Ozil cross and Alexis scored.
Huddersfield (h): Ramsey through ball and Ozil scored.
Huddersfield (h): Kolasinac dribbled into box and Giroud scored.
Man U: Ramsey pass and Lacazette scored.
BATE (h): Walcott got tackled, loose ball and Debuchy scored.
BATE (h): Welbeck shot intercepted, loose ball and Walcott scored.
BATE (h): Walcott crossed and Wilshere scored.
BATE (h): Walcott crossed and Owen Goal scored.
BATE (h): Walcott brought down and Giroud scored penalty.
BATE (h): Wilshere beautiful delayed pass and Elneny bent the ball in.
Southampton (a): Alexis lob and Giroud headed home.
WHU (a): Drab 0-0 game.
Newcastle (h): Ozil brilliant first-time volley after Alexis shot was poorly cleared by a defender.
WHU (h) Tin Cup: Debuchy header and yet again another Welbeck’s shuffled goal.
Liverpool (h): Bellerin cross and Alexis headed home.
Liverpool (h): Iwobi rolled ball to Xhaka who shot a thunderbolt.
Liverpool (h): Lacazette back-heel and Ozil brilliant shot over the goalie.
Palace (a): Lacazette shot parried by goalie and Mustafi slotted in rebound.
Palace (a): Lacazette rolled ball to Alexis who hit home.
Palace (a): Wilshere beautiful lob and Alexis scored.


SO – 0 – Solo brilliancy and free-kick.
Newcastle (h): Ozil brilliant first-time volley.

OE – 1 – Opponent’s error:
Koln (h): Goalie passed to Walcott who scored.
Swansea (h): Ozil shot rebound off defender and Kolasinac scored.
BATE (h): Walcott crossed and Owen Goal scored.

Penalties –– 4 no. awarded –– 4 no. converted : x – 0 – missed; .
….. Total ----- EPL – EC – FA – CC– Missed
….. 1 ..... 1 ….. 1 ….. 0 ….. 0 ….. 0 ---- 0 --- Lacazette – WBA (h)
….. 2 ..... 1 ….. 0 ….. 1 ….. 0 ….. 0 ---- 0 --- Giroud – BATE (A)
….. 3 ..... 1 ….. 1 ….. 0 ….. 0 ….. 0 ---- 0 --- Alexis – Burnley (A)
….. 4 ..... 1 ….. 0 ….. 1 ….. 0 ….. 0 ---- 0 --- Giroud – BATE (H)


Assist ----- EPL – EC – FA – CC – OE – SO – PEN
….. 6 … ..... 6 ….. 0 ….. 0 ….. 0 ---- 0 ….. 0 ….. 2 --- Aaron Ramsey
….. 5 … ..... 4 ….. 0 ….. 1 ….. 0 ---- 0 ….. 0 ….. 0 --- Granit Xhaka (including Community Shield)
….. 5 … ..... 0 ….. 5 ….. 0 ….. 0 ---- 0 ….. 2 ….. 1 --- Theo Walcott (Koln 2 blocked shots) (BATE o.g., penalty)
….. 5 … ..... 4 ….. 0 ….. 0 ….. 1 ---- 0 ….. 0 ….. 0 --- Alexis Sanchez
….. 4 … ..... 4 ….. 0 ….. 0 ….. 0 ---- 0 ….. 2 ….. 0 --- Mesut Ozil
….. 4 … ..... 4 ….. 0 ….. 0 ….. 0 ---- 0 ….. 0 ….. 0 --- Sead Kolasinac
….. 4 … ..... 2 ….. 2 ….. 0 ….. 0 ---- 0 ….. 0 ….. 0 --- Wilshere
….. 4 … ..... 4 ….. 0 ….. 0 ….. 0 ---- 0 ….. 0 ….. 0 --- Lacazette
….. 2 … ..... 2 ….. 0 ….. 0 ….. 0 ---- 0 ….. 0 ….. 0 --- Bellerin
….. 2 … ..... 1 ….. 0 ….. 0 ….. 1 ---- 0 ….. 0 ….. 0 --- Mo Elneny
….. 2 … ..... 1 ….. 1 ….. 0 ….. 0 ---- 0 ….. 0 ….. 0 --- Danny Welbeck
….. 2 … ..... 1 ….. 1 ….. 0 ….. 0 ---- 0 ….. 0 ….. 0 --- Alex Iwobi
….. 1 … ..... 0 ….. 1 ….. 0 ….. 0 ---- 0 ….. 0 ….. 0 --- Mertesacker
….. 1 … ..... 0 ….. 0 ….. 0 ….. 1 ---- 0 ….. 0 ….. 0 --- Coquelin
….. 1 … ..... 0 ….. 0 ….. 0 ….. 1 ---- 0 ….. 0 ….. 0 --- Debuchy
….. 0 … ..... 0 ….. 0 ….. 0 ….. 0 ---- 0 ….. 0 ….. 1 --- Mustafi
….. 48 assists in total

Title-Contender Golden Gloves – Clean Sheets in Premier League:
… 10 – De Gea;
… 10 – Courtois;
… 10 – Ederson;
….. 9 – Cech;
….. 9 – Nick Pope;
….. 8 – Mignolet;
….. 7 – Lloris;
….. 4 – Pickford;
….. 4 – Fraser Forster;
….. 3 – Butland;

All Top-6 team goalies (Nick Pope is the exception) kept the most clean-sheets compare to the rest.
Nick Pope is the surprise find of the season.
A geriatric Cech is still amongst the Top-5 goalie in keeping clean-sheets.


Home Form – “Traditional Top-7 Big Club”:
….. W … D … L ….. F ….. A … +/- __ Points
….. 9 ….. 1 … 0 … 36 ….. 5 … 31 … … 28 … Abu Dhabi City
….. 8 ….. 1 … 1 … 21 ….. 3 … 18 … … 25 … Manchester United
….. 8 ….. 1 … 1 … 25 … 12 … 13 … … 25 … Arsenal
….. 7 ….. 1 … 2 … 16 ….. 7 ….. 9 … … 22 … Chelski
….. 6 ….. 3 … 1 … 23 ….. 9 … 14 … … 21 … Tiny Totts
….. 5 ….. 5 … 0 … 19 ….. 3 … 16 … … 20 … Liverpool
….. 6 ….. 1 … 3 … 17 … 13 ….. 4 … … 19 … Everton


Home form will be the key as to whether Arsenal will regain Top-4 status.
We must now win all our home games, including against Top-6 teams.


Away Form – “Traditional Top-7 Big Club”:
….. W … D … L ….. F ….. A … +/- __ Points
… 10 ….. 0 … 0 … 25 ….. 4 … 21 … … 30 … Abu Dhabi City
….. 6 ….. 2 … 2 … 16 ….. 7 ….. 9 … … 20 … Chelski
….. 6 ….. 1 … 3 … 18 … 12 ….. 9 … … 19 … Tiny Totts
….. 5 ….. 3 … 2 … 19 … 11 ….. 8 … … 18 … Manchester United
….. 5 ….. 3 … 2 … 27 … 20 ….. 7 … … 18 … Liverpool
….. 3 ….. 3 … 4 … 12 … 15 …. -3 … … 12 … Arsenal
….. 1 ….. 5 … 4 ….. 7 … 17 … -10 … ….. 8 … Everton


Man City have as good as won the title in January 2018 after 20 league games with a 100% away record.
They can win the 2017/18 title by remaining unbeaten.
Arsenal?
Arsenal is effectively out of the title race in October 2017.
Top-4 status is impossible unless we start winning away games and remain unbeaten in 2018.


Table A – “Traditional Top-7 Big Club” Mini-League:
….. W … D … L ….. F ….. A … +/- __ Points
….. 5 ….. 1 … 0 … 16 ….. 4 … 12 … … 16 … Abu Dhabi City
….. 3 ….. 3 … 1 ….. 6 ….. 3 ….. 3 … … 12 … Chelski
….. 3 ….. 1 … 2 ….. 9 ….. 4 ….. 5 … … 10 … Manchester United
….. 2 ….. 2 … 3 … 12 … 15 …. -3 … ….. 9 … Arsenal
….. 2 ….. 0 … 4 ….. 9 … 10 …. -1 … ….. 6 … Tiny Totts
….. 1 ….. 3 … 2 ….. 7 … 11 …. -4 … ….. 6 … Liverpool
….. 0 ….. 3 … 4 ….. 4 … 16 … -12 … ….. 3 … Everton

Man City is still unbeaten against Top-7 teams and title race is as good as over.
Arsene Wenger is a born loser and sour grape when he claimed petro-dollars funded the new Invincible forgetting that before Guardiola, none of the Manchester managers (even with unlimited transfer funds) had managed to forge such an Invincible Team as Pep Guardiola, beating all Top-6 teams with ease.

Table B – Comparison of the Top-7 team against Bottom-13 teams:
….. W … D … L ….. F ….. A … +/- __ Points
… 14 ….. 0 … 0 … 47 ….. 8 … 39 … … 42 … Abu Dhabi City
… 10 ….. 3 … 1 … 30 ….. 8 … 22 … … 33 … Manchester United
….. 9 ….. 4 … 0 … 36 ….. 9 … 27 … … 31 … Liverpool
….. 9 ….. 4 … 1 … 30 … 10 … 20 … … 31 … Tiny Totts
… 10 ….. 0 … 3 … 28 … 11 … 17 … … 30 … Chelski
….. 9 ….. 2 … 2 … 25 … 10 … 15 … … 29 … Arsenal
….. 7 ….. 3 … 3 … 21 … 16 ….. 5 … … 24 … Everton

Man City is perfect against Bototm-13 teams.
Liverpool are still unbeaten against Bottom-13 teams.
Table B indicated that winning a Top-4 spots depends very much on the ability of teams to remain unbeaten and to garner maximum points against Bottom-13 teams.
Table B indicates that it is a close fight for 2nd to 4th spot.
If Everton continues their unbeaten run, they are in with a shout for Top-4 spot.

Table C – Comparison to Title Winners and 2007/08 season:
Season … Finish …. W …. D …. L ….. F ….. A … +/- … Points
2007/08 ….. 3rd …. 24 … 11 ….. 3 … 74 … 31 … 43 … 83 points – Arsenal
2015/16 ….. 1st ….. 23 … 12 ….. 3 … 68 … 36 … 32 … 81 points – Leicester City
2016/17 ….. 1st ….. 30 ….. 3 ….. 5 … 85 … 33 … 52 … 93 points – Chelski
2016/17 ….. 5th ….. 23 ….. 6 ….. 9 … 77 … 44 … 33 … 75 points – Arsenal

2017/18 ….. 4th ….. 24 ….. 7 ….. 7 … 77 … 36 … 41 … 79 points – Arsenal prediction to clinch 4th spot
2017/18 ….. 4th ….. 12 ….. 3 ….. 5 … 37 … 25 … 12 … 37 points – Arsenal after Round #20

We need to collect 42 points – 13W 3D 2L – from remaining 18 games to achieve 79 points.

2015/16 Leicester City proved that an inferior team can still be a title-winner by being unbeaten against Bottom-12 teams, and loses only 3 games against Top-8 teams.
Alas, Arsenal is out of the title race with 5 losses out of 19 games played.
A Top-4 finish requires Arsenal to remain unbeaten at home, remain unbeaten against Top-7 teams and beat all Bottom-13 teams.

Arsenal 2016/17 Results Break-Down:
….. W … D … L ….. F ….. A … +/- __ Points
….. 3 ….. 3 … 6 … 19 … 21 …. -2 … … 12 … Top-7 Result
… 20 ….. 3 … 3 … 58 … 23 … 35 … … 63 … Bottom-13 Result

Arsenal 2017/18 Results Break-Down:
….. W … D … L ….. F ….. A … +/- __ Points
….. 2 ….. 2 … 3 … 12 … 15 …. -3 … ….. 8 … Top-7 Result
….. 9 ….. 2 … 2 … 25 … 10 … 15 … … 29 … Bottom-13 Result

This season Arsenal result of 2W 2D 3L against Top-7 teams is no better than last season overall result of 3W 3D 6L.
Worse, we did not improved against Bototm-13 teams with our goal-shy forwards and midfielders.
A damming statement on Arsene Wenger’s inability to find and coach players to play the way he wanted WengerBall to be played.

These wintry months – 2nd Quarter performance – , confirmed we did not improved under Arsene Wenger for the past 5 seasons (or even after 2007/08 season), declining into mediocrity.
Same old Crab Football with our inability to see off Bottom-13 teams despite more than 20+ shots at goal and 65% or more possession.

It can be seen that whereas Abu Dhabi City, Chelski, Liverpool and Tiny Totts are starting to accelerate away from the Pack in December, getting their acts together.
Arsenal and ManU imploded and most likely will go down the Table faster than Christmas dressings in the New Year.
Not forgetting that a fired-up Everton with a manager who knew how to get results is fast climbing the Table.
Everton may be doing a “Leicester City” and sneak into Top-4?

………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
Top-10 Teams after 3rd Quarter Round #20 to #29:
….. W … D … L ….. F ….. A … +/- __ Points
….. 1 ….. 0 … 0 ….. 5 ….. 0 ….. 5 … ….. 3 … Liverpool
….. 1 ….. 0 … 0 ….. 5 ….. 2 ….. 3 … ….. 3 … Tiny Totts
….. 1 ….. 0 … 0 ….. 2 ….. 0 ….. 2 … ….. 3 … Chelski
….. 1 ….. 0 … 0 ….. 3 ….. 2 ….. 1 … ….. 3 … Arsenal
….. 1 ….. 0 … 0 ….. 2 ….. 1 ….. 1 … ….. 3 … Watford
….. 1 ….. 0 … 0 ….. 1 ….. 0 ….. 1 … ….. 3 … Abu Dhabi City

….. 0 ….. 1 … 0 ….. 3 ….. 3 ….. 0 … ….. 1 … West Ham United
….. 0 ….. 1 … 0 ….. 3 ….. 3 ….. 0 … ….. 1 … Bournemouth
….. 0 ….. 1 … 0 ….. 2 ….. 2 ….. 0 … ….. 1 … Manchester United
….. 0 ….. 1 … 0 ….. 2 ….. 2 ….. 0 … ….. 1 … Burnley

….. 0 ….. 1 … 0 ….. 1 ….. 1 ….. 0 … ….. 1 … Huddersfield
….. 0 ….. 1 … 0 ….. 1 ….. 1 ….. 0 … ….. 1 … Stoke City
….. 0 ….. 1 … 0 ….. 0 ….. 0 ….. 0 … ….. 1 … Everton
….. 0 ….. 1 … 0 ….. 0 ….. 0 ….. 0 … ….. 1 … West Bromwich Albion

….. 0 ….. 0 … 1 ….. 2 ….. 3 …. -1 … ….. 0 … Crystal Palace
….. 0 ….. 0 … 1 ….. 0 ….. 1 …. -1 … ….. 0 … Newcastle
….. 0 ….. 0 … 1 ….. 1 ….. 2 …. -1 … ….. 0 … Leicester City
….. 0 ….. 0 … 1 ….. 0 ….. 2 …. -2 … ….. 0 … Brighton
….. 0 ….. 0 … 1 ….. 2 ….. 5 …. -3 … ….. 0 … Southampton
….. 0 ….. 0 … 1 ….. 0 ….. 5 …. -5 … ….. 0 … Swansea City

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