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Two-thirds of the season gone....
Discussion started by djarse , 10 February, 2019 15:17
Two-thirds of the season gone....
djarse 10 February, 2019 15:17
And we are sixth with 50 points: twelve points clear of 7th. Barring disaster we will definitely be at least 6th.

Written before the City v Chelsea game, we are within a point of the 4th and 5th teams.

At the end of last season we were 6th: seven points behind 5th and 12 behind 4th. We are likely to be closer to 5th and 6th the year and may even get 5th place if our form can improve a bit away. As Padre has pointed out on another post, we have already accumulated more away points at the 2/3rds point this year than we got all last season.

If we carry on picking up points at our current rate for the rest of the season, we will end up with 75 points (the same as Liverpool did last season to get 4th place).

While I share the frustrations about our lack of progress, all of us would have happily taken the position we are in now at the start of the season. Almost everyone on this site predicted no better than 6th this season and admitted it would take 2 years or more for us to be competitive with City & Liverpool.

I'm not complacent - we have a lot of players to offload who are not good enough, some who are but don't deliver, gaping problems in some areas on the pitch (Centre-Back, Left Back, Creative midfield, Winger), and of course the overriding Kroenke problem.

But I think we have made modest progress under Emery, have the possibility of serious reinforcements in the summer, and a crop of promising younger players (23 & under) who are likely to improve: Torreira, Maitland-Niles, Holding, Iwobi, Guendouzi, Smith-Rowe, Mavropanos, Nelson & Saka.

Re: Two-thirds of the season gone....
Bergmars 10 February, 2019 16:00
Still dont defend well enough so progress is stunted no matter how well we attack



Under new managment

Re: Two-thirds of the season gone....
AJ The Gunner 10 February, 2019 16:49
and i still don't know what Emery is up to. the defence is still shambolic and we are not creating enough clear cut chances.



Wenger Is Gone Now So Can We Be Allowed To Breathe Now???

Re: Two-thirds of the season gone....
SuperRob 10 February, 2019 16:57
Utd still have to play Arsenal, City, Liverpool and Chelsea

Chelsea still have to play Spurs, Liverpool and Utd.

Arsenal still have to play Spurs and Utd. There is some hope we can get 4th place.

Re: Two-thirds of the season gone....
Gooner Sod 10 February, 2019 17:40
Quote:
SuperRob
Utd still have to play Arsenal, City, Liverpool and Chelsea
Chelsea still have to play Spurs, Liverpool and Utd.

Arsenal still have to play Spurs and Utd. There is some hope we can get 4th place.

There would be massive hope if we could fix the defence and therefore improve away. We have tricky away fixtures like Leicester, Wolves, Everton, Bournemouth. If we can win at 2 of those and avoid defeat in the rest. We will make 4th if we keep up our home form.

It's the away matches killing us. Hadn't won away since Nov until this weekend. Better than last yr but not good enough for 4th.

Re: Two-thirds of the season gone....
Padre Pio 10 February, 2019 18:39
Emery has been unlucky with injuries. There were enough players sick or lame today to put out a better 11 than the one we played. You cant lose defenders of the quality of Sokratis and Bellerin without having a bad effect. I think we are also missing Xhaka which is t something I would have said last season.



- until Wenger moves on, they'll always be the also-rans in the major competitions. A club in elite purgatory. Always good enough to make it to the big race, never fast or smart enough to push over the finish line in first place. That's all about the manager. Until he changes, Arsenal fans will continue to celebrate glorious failure.

Re: Two-thirds of the season gone....
Gooner Sod 10 February, 2019 19:26
I think Guendouzi has stepped up big time actually. It Torreira that has dipped who Xhaka can come in for on his return.

But overall with the injuries, i think most fans are satisfied with where we are. It's just frustrating watching the games the way we play.

Re: Two-thirds of the season gone....
Boston Gooner 10 February, 2019 21:20
Quote:
AJ The Gunner
and i still don't know what Emery is up to. the defence is still shambolic and we are not creating enough clear cut chances.



http://i63.tinypic.com/2dt9c3q.jpg

Re: Two-thirds of the season gone....
Merlion96 10 February, 2019 21:29
Quote:
djarse
And we are sixth with 50 points: twelve points clear of 7th. Barring disaster we will definitely be at least 6th.
Written before the City v Chelsea game, we are within a point of the 4th and 5th teams.

At the end of last season we were 6th: seven points behind 5th and 12 behind 4th. We are likely to be closer to 5th and 6th the year and may even get 5th place if our form can improve a bit away. As Padre has pointed out on another post, we have already accumulated more away points at the 2/3rds point this year than we got all last season.

If we carry on picking up points at our current rate for the rest of the season, we will end up with 75 points (the same as Liverpool did last season to get 4th place).

While I share the frustrations about our lack of progress, all of us would have happily taken the position we are in now at the start of the season. Almost everyone on this site predicted no better than 6th this season and admitted it would take 2 years or more for us to be competitive with City & Liverpool.

I'm not complacent - we have a lot of players to offload who are not good enough, some who are but don't deliver, gaping problems in some areas on the pitch (Centre-Back, Left Back, Creative midfield, Winger), and of course the overriding Kroenke problem.

But I think we have made modest progress under Emery, have the possibility of serious reinforcements in the summer, and a crop of promising younger players (23 & under) who are likely to improve: Torreira, Maitland-Niles, Holding, Iwobi, Guendouzi, Smith-Rowe, Mavropanos, Nelson & Saka.

Do you realize that Emery had lost the plot and is running scared as witnessed against Huddersfield where he fielded a team not to win, but not to lose playing counter-attacking football to snatch points?

Plus his focus is on winning Europa Cup with better odds to qualify for CL Cup next season.

Plus you may not factor in that Europa Cup starts this week and physical and mental exhaustion will take a toll on this thin squad with more injuries and more exhausted players struggling during April/May.

I cannot see ManU or even Chelski will drop more points than us during this home stretch.

Re: Two-thirds of the season gone....
mapleleafgooner 10 February, 2019 23:36
Quote:
Merlion96
.......
I cannot see ManU or even Chelski will drop more points than us during this home stretch.

Chel$ki not only drop 3 points today but that massive defeat to Citeh will have dealt them a mental blow which they might not be able to recover from. I can't understand why u are so fast to dump Emery who is not even one year on the job. Maybe u are an AKB in disguise hoping for the return of Wenger.........

Re: Two-thirds of the season gone....
Padre Pio 11 February, 2019 00:30
Merlion was prepared to give Wenger chance after chance, even up to 13 years had gone by since Wenger last won league he didnt let go, and only then reluctantly. He gave Wenger the benefit of the doubt for nearly 14 years.
Emery is only allowed a matter of months, even though his points tally is better than Wenger's last year in office.



- until Wenger moves on, they'll always be the also-rans in the major competitions. A club in elite purgatory. Always good enough to make it to the big race, never fast or smart enough to push over the finish line in first place. That's all about the manager. Until he changes, Arsenal fans will continue to celebrate glorious failure.

Re: Two-thirds of the season gone....
MattySadler 11 February, 2019 13:47
Saw something earlier about how we only picked up 5 points in games away from home against last season's bottom 6, whereas this season we have already picked up 13 points away from home against this season's bottom 6, and still have Burnley to play.

Anyway, regardless of who took over we knew it wouldn't be easy. Not only have we changed a manager and pretty much entire backroom that had been around for 20 odd years, but we've also got a lot of on and off field negligence to rectify. On top of that we've had a lot of injuries as well.

Not great but could have been a lot worse.

Re: Two-thirds of the season gone....
djarse 11 February, 2019 14:33
Ok so these are the remaining PL games. Our possible results might be affected by our progress in the Europa League obviously, with matches either side of the Man U, Watford and Brighton games - if we get that far (and assuming we get past BATE in the next ten days). My guess at the results:

24 Feb H Southampton WIN
27 Feb H Bournemouth WIN
2 March A Spurs LOSE
10 March H Man U DRAW Maybe a bit optimistic but we are at home
16 March A Wolves LOSE
1 April H Newcastle WIN
6 April A Everton WIN We always seem to beat them
13 April A Watford DRAW
20 April H C Palace WIN
27 April A Leicester DRAW
4 May H Brighton WIN
12 May A Burnley DRAW If they are fighting to survive, maybe lose

TOTAL 6 wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats: 22 points (taking us to 72 points)

That would very possibly get us 5th place at least.

Re: Two-thirds of the season gone....
Padre Pio 11 February, 2019 19:15
If we could get 8 more points it would make a very big difference.
Not being in FA cup could prove to be an advantage, lets hope our direct rivals have a good cup run.



- until Wenger moves on, they'll always be the also-rans in the major competitions. A club in elite purgatory. Always good enough to make it to the big race, never fast or smart enough to push over the finish line in first place. That's all about the manager. Until he changes, Arsenal fans will continue to celebrate glorious failure.

Re: Two-thirds of the season gone....
Gooner Sod 11 February, 2019 20:28
Quote:
djarse
Ok so these are the remaining PL games. Our possible results might be affected by our progress in the Europa League obviously, with matches either side of the Man U, Watford and Brighton games - if we get that far (and assuming we get past BATE in the next ten days). My guess at the results:
24 Feb H Southampton WIN
27 Feb H Bournemouth WIN
2 March A Spurs LOSE
10 March H Man U DRAW Maybe a bit optimistic but we are at home
16 March A Wolves LOSE
1 April H Newcastle WIN
6 April A Everton WIN We always seem to beat them
13 April A Watford DRAW
20 April H C Palace WIN
27 April A Leicester DRAW
4 May H Brighton WIN
12 May A Burnley DRAW If they are fighting to survive, maybe lose

TOTAL 6 wins, 4 draws, 2 defeats: 22 points (taking us to 72 points)

That would very possibly get us 5th place at least.

I think we can beat Utd at home if we play like we did vs Spurs & Chelsea. Also i think its around same period of their 2nd leg PSG match.

Our other advantage is we play Watford & Burnley away right at end of season. Watford is already safe and by then Burnley should be. Meaning we can win the games if we play well and want it more.

Brighton is a worry, they get all their points at home and likely to be still scrapping. I'd say around 75pts is doable which should be enough if we beat Man Utd.

Re: Two-thirds of the season gone....
Gooner Sod 11 February, 2019 20:30
Quote:
Padre Pio
If we could get 8 more points it would make a very big difference.
Not being in FA cup could prove to be an advantage, lets hope our direct rivals have a good cup run.

That puts us on 80pts, which is more than enough as that has won the league in the past.

But very unrealistic as that means 10 wins from 12 matches.

Re: Two-thirds of the season gone....
Padre Pio 11 February, 2019 21:26
Yes it’s wistful thinking, but I hope they will fight for it.



- until Wenger moves on, they'll always be the also-rans in the major competitions. A club in elite purgatory. Always good enough to make it to the big race, never fast or smart enough to push over the finish line in first place. That's all about the manager. Until he changes, Arsenal fans will continue to celebrate glorious failure.

Re: Two-thirds of the season gone....
djarse 02 March, 2019 17:55
So far so good - 1 point more than predicted:

24 Feb H Southampton WIN WON
27 Feb H Bournemouth WIN WON
2 March A Spurs LOSE DREW

If we can avoid defeat against Man U next weekend (I predicted a DRAW), we have a comparatively easy run-in:

16 March A Wolves
1 April H Newcastle
6 April A Everton
13 April A Watford
20 April H C Palace
27 April A Leicester
4 May H Brighton
12 May A Burnley

After next weekend:
Spurs have away games at Liverpool & City
Chelski have away games at Liverpool and Man U
Man U have home games against City and Chelsea

We have a chance to get 4th place....

Re: Two-thirds of the season gone....
Gooner Sod 02 March, 2019 18:25
All the away games look very tricky. However all them teams seems safe and nothing to play for. With our much improved form we should win a good chunk of them games.

Beat Man Utd, and we should make top4 unless we hit a bad run again.

I personally think the big difference has been Mkhitaryan's return for injury and his form. He so composed on the ball, beats his man and brings it out calmly and obviously can pick a pass.
I can see why Emery loves playing him. He does majority of the good stuff Ozil does but offers a lot more to the team

Re: Two-thirds of the season gone....
younghansolo 04 March, 2019 11:13
Mkhitaryan looks so much quicker. Both on the ball and his decision making.
The run against Bournemouth to set up Aubameyang was brilliant, he just kept going and going. He looked like Rosicky for a moment.

Re: Two-thirds of the season gone....
CazOnARola 04 March, 2019 14:34
Mkhitaryan has stepped it up. Almost as if the injury break did something. He's been running a lot and confident on the ball as well. Been very impressed

Re: Two-thirds of the season gone....
djarse 10 March, 2019 18:27
So far so good - 3 points more than predicted:

24 Feb H Southampton WIN WON
27 Feb H Bournemouth WIN WON
2 March A Spurs LOSE DREW
10 March H Manu U WIN


16 March A Wolves
1 April H Newcastle
6 April A Everton
13 April A Watford
20 April H C Palace
27 April A Leicester
4 May H Brighton
12 May A Burnley

We should win all 3 home games comfortably. And maybe one defeat and two draws in the away games? We could get 77 points in all.

Fixtures left for our top 4 rivals:

Spurs have away games at Liverpool & City
Chelski have away games at Liverpool and Man U
Man U have home games against City and Chelsea

We have a very good chance now to get 4th place....

Re: Two-thirds of the season gone....
Gooner Sod 10 March, 2019 18:53
Wolves are in the FA Cup so that tough away game is postponed.

Only Chelsea out of top 4 contenders is playing a league game next week. They had a game in hand anyway.

I think its crucial we beat Everton, Watford & Burnley away. We can afford to drop points in the Leicester and Wolves game if we win the other 3 away ones.

Going out of Europa League might actually help us, but its handy to have it as backup plus a potential trophy.

Re: Two-thirds of the season gone....
djarse 17 March, 2019 18:43
Chelski lost again to Everton today - 3 points behind us now and a much worse goal difference with 8 games to go

And they have away games at Liverpool and Man U to come - I think they look the weakest link now in the race for the Top 6

Spurs have away games to City and Liverpool to come

I have a sneaking feeling it will be Man U & Arsenal in 3rd/4th

Re: Two-thirds of the season gone....
Padre Pio 17 March, 2019 18:58
We have Everton away, and five of our 8 games are away and away form not so good so will need to step up.



- until Wenger moves on, they'll always be the also-rans in the major competitions. A club in elite purgatory. Always good enough to make it to the big race, never fast or smart enough to push over the finish line in first place. That's all about the manager. Until he changes, Arsenal fans will continue to celebrate glorious failure.

Re: Two-thirds of the season gone....
CazOnARola 18 March, 2019 05:05
Watford and Wolves are both fighting for Europa so we will drop points, possibly lose both

Re: Two-thirds of the season gone....
Gooner Sod 18 March, 2019 08:17
Quote:
CazOnARola
Watford and Wolves are both fighting for Europa so we will drop points, possibly lose both

Highly doubt we will lose both. Haven't heard anything about either team fighting for Europa.

Also remember both teams are in FA Cup semi which is a massive thing for them. Don't be surprised if they prioritised that giving us an easier game.

Also if either of them get to final, they get a Europa spot anyway assuming Man City is other finalist.

I see enough improvement in our performances to suggest we'll pick up enough points for at least 4th.


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