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130-Goal - Can the new "Henry-Pires" partnership shoot us into Top-4?
Merlion96 (IP Logged)
05 February, 2018 10:42
Aug to Dec 2017 League Performance … WLL WDW WLWW LWWW LDDWDWD
Jan to May 2018 League Performance … DLWL W

This is a new “Henry-Pires Era” with Aubameyang-Mkhitaryan partnership and Mesut Ozil is playing in the “Bergy Hole”.
Lacazette is the new “Wiltord”.
Ramsey is the new “Ljungberg” with his blind-side running and knack of getting into goal-scoring position.
What we need is a new “Vieira-Gilberto” Enforcer partnership.
And of course, a new “Campbell-Toure” partnership.

After January Jittery, let’s hope there is no more perennial February Flops with the Mkhi-Auba-Ozil Forward Line for the next 3 seasons.
But it will be another hectic “January” with games every 3 or 4 days. Have we got a deep squad to cope?


February 3, 2018 -- Round #26, Match #39
Arsenal 5-1 Everton
[Ramsey, Koscielny, Ramsey, Aubameyang, Ramsey]

February 10, 2018 -- Round #27, Match #40
Tiny Totts vs Arsenal []

February 15, 2018 -- Round #27, Match #42 Europa Cup knockout Round 1L
Ostersunds vs Arsenal []

February 22, 2018 -- Round #27, Match #43 Europa Cup knockout Round 2L
Arsenal vs Ostersunds []

February 25, 2018 -- Round #27, Match #44 Carabao Cup Final
Arsenal v Manchester City []


March 1, 2018 -- Round #28, Match #45
Arsenal v Manchester City []


Arsenal vs Top-6 Results Break-Down (MIC, MNU, LIV, CHE, TOT):
Season ….. W …. D … L ….. F …. A … +/- __ Points
2017/18 ….. 1 ….. 3 … 3 ….. 9 … 15 …. -6 … ….. 6
2016/17 ….. 2 ….. 3 … 5 … 15 … 19 …. -4 … ….. 9
2015/16 ….. 2 ….. 5 … 3 … 15 … 15 ….. 0 … … 11
2014/15 ….. 2 ….. 5 … 3 … 14 … 13 ….. 1 … … 11
2013/14 ….. 3 ….. 3 … 5 ….. 7 … 19 …-12 … … 12
2012/13 ….. 2 ….. 3 … 5 … 15 … 16 …. -1 … ….. 9
2011/12 ….. 4 ….. 1 … 5 … 17 … 21 …. -4 … … 13
2010/11 ….. 3 ….. 4 … 3 … 14 … 12 ….. 2 … … 13
2009/10 ….. 3 ….. 1 … 6 … 11 … 17 …. -6 … … 10
2008/09 ….. 3 ….. 5 … 2 … 16 … 18 …. -2 … … 14
2007/08 ….. 5 ….. 3 … 2 … 16 … 11 ….. 5 … … 18


This season Arsenal result of 1W 3D 3L against Top-6 teams is no great improvement for last 10 seasons.
We never won 5 or more games against both Manchester clubs, Liverpool, Chelski and Tiny Totts since 2007/08.
It is conclusive proof that for the past 10 seasons, we cannot challenge for the title and just good enough to fight for Top-4 status.


This season Arsenal result of 3W 3D 3L against Top-7 teams is no great improvement from last season overall result of 3W 3D 6L. We need to remain unbeaten against Top-6 teams to improve against last season result.

But we were worse than last season against Bottom-13 teams with our goal-shy forwards and midfielders.

Can the new “Henry-Pires” pair arrest the current decline under Arsene Wenger?
Is this the start of the end of Arsene Wenger Era at Arsenal FC or his long-term plan to complete 1,000 Arsenal league games?

…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
The expectation for 130-goal 2017/18 season will be:
The STRIKERS are Pierre Emerick-Aubameyang, Lacazette, Danny Welbeck, Alex Iwobi and Eddie Nketiah.
STRIKERS sold and out on-loan: Alexis Sanchez, Oliver Giroud and Chuba Akpom.

STRIKERS contributed ..... 48.65% out of 65% expectation … 36 out of 84 goals expectation.
MIDFIELD contributed ...... 22.97% out of 25% expectation … 17 out of 33 goals expectation.
DEFENDER contributed ... 24.33% out of 07% expectation … 18 out of 09 goals which exceeded expectation.
"Dubious goal"..................... 4.05% out of 03% expectation ….. 3 out of 04 goals expectation.

STRIKERS and MIDFIELD are struggling to score; both not even scoring 50% of the goal expectation.
Long may Ramsey continues his scoring form and scores 10 to 15 goals this season.
Forward-3 in Welbeck–Lacazette–Iwobi is the worst ever since 1996 during Wenger Era.
DEFENCE is extraordinary and still outscoring MIDFIELD!


Maximum no. of games predicted = 38 + (6+6) Europa Cup + 6 Tin Cup + 2 FA Cup = 58 games.
74 goals scored =
1.90 goals per game after playing 39 games overall.
2.95 goals per game for remaining 19 games to reach 130 goals.
57% of 130 goals after playing 67% of expected 58 games.

….. 6 goals scored = 1.20 goals per game after playing 5 League Cup games.
… 14 goals scored = 2.33 goals per game after playing 6 Europa Cup games.
….. 3 goals scored = 1.50 goals per game after playing Community Shield + FA Cup Round #3.
… 51 goals scored = 1.96 goals per game after playing 26 League games.

Community Shield is the 1st game for this season.

Sead Kolasinac scored the first goal of the season during Community Shield.
Sead Kolasinac scored the first Europa Cup goal.
Walcott scored the first League Cup goal.
Lacazette scored the first league goal of the season.

Koscielny is the 21st goal scorer.
Aubameyang is the 22nd goal scorer.

The latest goal-scorer will be indicated at top of list:

….. Total ----- EPL - EC - FA -- CC
….. 00 ... 00 ... 00 - 00 -- 00 -- 00 --- Henrikh Mkhitaryan
….. 00 ... 00 ... 00 - 00 -- 00 -- 00 --- Ainsley Maitland-Niles
….. 00 ... 00 ... 00 - 00 -- 00 -- 00 --- Santi Cazorla
….. 00 ... 00 ... 00 - 00 -- 00 -- 00 --- Reiss Nelson
….. 00 ... 00 ... 00 - 00 -- 00 -- 00 --- Calum Chambers

….. 01 ... 01 ... 01 - 00 -- 00 -- 00 --- Aubameyang
….. 03 ... 02 ... 02 - 00 -- 00 -- 00 --- Koscielny
….. 05 ... 02 ... 01 - 00 -- 00 -- 01 --- Granit Xhaka
….. 06 ... 01 ... 00 - 01 -- 00 -- 00 --- Mo Elneny
….. 09 ... 03 ... 01 - 01 -- 00 -- 01 --- "own" goal or "dubious" goal
….. 11 ... 02 ... 01 - 01 -- 00 -- 00 --- Jack Wilshere
….. 12 ... 01 ... 00 - 01 -- 00 -- 00 --- Debuchy
….. 14 ... 02 ... 02 - 00 -- 00 -- 00 --- Shkodran Mustafi
….. 16 ... 02 ... 00 - 00 -- 00 -- 02 --- Eddie Nketiah
….. 20 ... 04 ... 04 - 00 -- 00 -- 00 --- Mesut Ozil
….. 22 ... 02 ... 01 - 00 -- 01 -- 00 --- Per Mertesacker
….. 24 ... 02 ... 02 - 00 -- 00 -- 00 --- Alex Iwobi
….. 28 ... 04 ... 04 - 00 -- 00 -- 00 --- Nacho Monreal
….. 29 ... 01 ... 00 - 01 -- 00 -- 00 --- Rob Holding
….. 33 ... 04 ... 00 - 03 -- 00 -- 01 --- Theo Walcott
….. 36 ... 03 ... 03 - 00 -- 00 -- 00 --- Hector Bellerin
….. 44 ... 08 ... 07 - 01 -- 00 -- 00 --- Alexis Sanchez
….. 51 ... 07 ... 04 - 03 -- 00 -- 00 --- Olivier Giroud
….. 57 ... 06 ... 06 - 00 -- 00 -- 00 --- Aaron Ramsey
….. 62 ... 05 ... 03 - 00 -- 01 -- 01 --- Danny Welbeck
….. 71 ... 09 ... 09 - 00 -- 00 -- 00 --- Alexandre Lacazette
….. 74 ... 03 ... 01 - 01 -- 01 -- 00 --- Sead Kolasinac

League games goal scorers.

01) Lacazette................ ..9 goals out of 22 goals expectation
02) Alexis...................... .. 8 goals out of 10 goals expectation
03) Giroud.................... .. 7 goals out of 10 goals expectation
04) Ramsey.................. .. 6 goals out of 12 goals expectation
05) Welbeck................. .. 5 goals out of 12 goals expectation
06) Walcott................... .. 4 goals out of 05 goals expectation
07) Ozil ........................ .. 4 goals out of 06 goals expectation
08) Monreal.................. …4 goals out of 01 goals which exceeded expectation

09) “Dubious Goal” ...... .. 3 goals out of 04 goals expectation
10) Kolasinac............... … 3 goals out of 01 goals which exceeded expectation
11) Bellerin................... .. 3 goals out of 01 goals which exceeded expectation
12) Nketiah.................. … 2 goals out of 00 goals which exceeded expectation
13) Mustafi.................... .. 2 goals out of 01 goals which exceeded expectation
14) Mertesacker ........... .. 2 goals out of 02 goals which met expectation
15) Koscielny ............... .. 2 goals out of 02 goals which met expectation
16) Iwobi....................... .. 2 goals out of 05 goals expectation
17) Xhaka .................... .. 2 goals out of 05 goals expectation
18) Wilshere................. .. 2 goals out of 05 goals expectation
19) Aubameyang ............ 1 goals out of 10 goals expectation
20) Holding................ …. 1 goals out of 0 goals which exceeded expectation
21) Elneny.................... .. 1 goals out of 01 goals which met expectation
22) Debuchy................ …1 goals out of 0 goals which exceeded expectation

23) Mkhitaryan ......... ….. 0 goals out of 10 goals expectation
24) Maitland-Niles ......... ..0 goals out of 00 goals expectation
25) Chambers............... .. 0 goals out of 01 goal expectation
26) Reiss Nelson .......... .. 0 goals out of 02 goals expectation
27) Joe Willock ............. .. 0 goals out of 00 goals expectation
28) Coquelin................. .. 0 goals out of 01 goals expectation
29) Akpom.................... .. 0 goals out of 00 goal expectation
30) Cazorla................... .. 0 goals out of 01 goals expectation

Penalties –– 4 no. awarded –– 4 no. converted : x – 0 – missed; .
….. Total ----- EPL – EC – FA – CC– Missed
….. 1 ..... 1 ….. 1 ….. 0 ….. 0 ….. 0 ---- 0 --- Lacazette – WBA (h)
….. 2 ..... 1 ….. 0 ….. 1 ….. 0 ….. 0 ---- 0 --- Giroud – BATE (A)
….. 3 ..... 1 ….. 1 ….. 0 ….. 0 ….. 0 ---- 0 --- Alexis – Burnley (A)
….. 4 ..... 1 ….. 0 ….. 1 ….. 0 ….. 0 ---- 0 --- Giroud – BATE (H)


Title-Contender Golden Gloves – Clean Sheets in Premier League:
… 15 – De Gea;
… 13 – Courtois;
… 12 – Ederson;
… 10 – Lloris;
… 10 – Nick Pope;
….. 9 – Cech;

….. 8 – Mignolet;
….. 5 – Butland;
….. 4 – Pickford;
….. 4 – Fraser Forster;

All Top-6 team goalies (Nick Pope is the exception) kept the most clean-sheets compare to the rest.
Nick Pope is the surprise find of the season.
A declining Cech is still amongst the Top-6 goalie in keeping clean-sheets.


Home Form – “Traditional Top-7 Big Club”:
….. W … D … L ….. F ….. A … +/- __ Points
… 12 ….. 1 … 0 … 45 ….. 7 … 38 … … 37 … Abu Dhabi City
… 10 ….. 2 … 1 … 26 ….. 3 … 23 … … 32 … Manchester United
… 10 ….. 2 … 1 … 36 … 16 … 20 … … 32 … Arsenal
….. 8 ….. 4 … 1 … 30 … 10 … 20 … … 28 … Tiny Totts
….. 7 ….. 6 … 0 … 27 ….. 9 … 18 … … 27 … Liverpool
….. 8 ….. 2 … 3 … 21 … 10 … 11 … … 26 … Chelski
….. 7 ….. 2 … 4 … 20 … 17 ….. 3 … … 23 … Everton


Anfield and Etihad are fortress with both teams remain unbeaten at home.
Home form will be the key as to whether Arsenal will regain Top-4 status.
We must win all our home games, and all remaining 12 games to stand a chance to clinch Top-4 spot.


Away Form – “Traditional Top-7 Big Club”:
….. W … D … L ….. F ….. A … +/- __ Points
… 10 ….. 2 … 1 … 29 ….. 9 … 20 … … 32 … Abu Dhabi City
….. 7 ….. 3 … 2 … 22 ….. 9 … 13 … … 24 … Chelski
….. 7 ….. 3 … 3 … 32 … 22 … 10 … … 24 … Liverpool
….. 7 ….. 3 … 3 … 22 … 13 ….. 9 … … 24 … Manchester United
….. 7 ….. 3 … 3 … 23 … 15 ….. 8 … … 24 … Tiny Totts
….. 3 ….. 4 … 6 … 15 … 21 …. -6 … … 13 … Arsenal
….. 1 ….. 5 … 7 ….. 9 … 28 …-19 … ….. 8 … Everton


Man City will win the title by April 2018 if they remain unbeaten for remaining 12 league games.
Arsenal?
Arsenal is out of the title race in October 2017.


Table A – “Traditional Top-7 Big Club” Mini-League:
….. W … D … L ….. F ….. A … +/- __ Points
….. 5 ….. 1 … 1 … 19 ….. 8 … 11 … … 16 … Abu Dhabi City
….. 4 ….. 1 … 4 … 17 … 12 ….. 5 … … 13 … Tiny Totts
….. 4 ….. 1 … 3 … 11 ….. 6 ….. 5 … … 13 … Manchester United
….. 3 ….. 4 … 1 ….. 8 ….. 5 ….. 3 … … 13 … Chelski
….. 3 ….. 3 … 3 … 19 … 18 ….. 1 … … 12 … Arsenal
….. 2 ….. 4 … 2 … 13 … 16 …. -3 … … 10 … Liverpool
….. 0 ….. 3 … 7 ….. 5 … 27 …-22 … ….. 3 … Everton

Barring Man City, Arsenal results against Top-6 teams are comparable to the Top-5 Pack.


Table B – Comparison of the Top-7 team against Bottom-13 teams:
….. W … D … L ….. F ….. A … +/- __ Points
… 17 ….. 2 … 0 … 57 … 11 … 46 … … 53 … Abu Dhabi City
… 13 ….. 4 … 1 … 36 ….. 8 … 28 … … 43 … Manchester United
… 12 ….. 4 … 1 … 43 … 12 … 31 … … 40 … Liverpool
… 12 ….. 1 … 4 … 37 … 14 … 23 … … 37 … Chelski
….. 9 ….. 6 … 1 … 32 … 12 … 20 … … 33 … Tiny Totts
… 10 ….. 3 … 4 … 42 … 17 … 15 … … 33 … Arsenal
….. 8 ….. 4 … 4 … 25 … 20 ….. 5 … … 28 … Everton

Man City is the only unbeaten team against Bottom-13 teams.
Table B indicated that winning a Top-4 spots depends very much on the ability of teams to remain unbeaten and to collect maximum points against Bottom-13 teams.
It is a race for 2nd to 4th spot amongst Top-6.


Table C – Comparison to Title Winners and 2007/08 season:
Season … Finish …. W …. D …. L ….. F ….. A … +/- … Points
2007/08 ….. 3rd …. 24 … 11 ….. 3 … 74 … 31 … 43 … 83 points – Arsenal
2015/16 ….. 1st ….. 23 … 12 ….. 3 … 68 … 36 … 32 … 81 points – Leicester City
2016/17 ….. 1st ….. 30 ….. 3 ….. 5 … 85 … 33 … 52 … 93 points – Chelski
2016/17 ….. 5th ….. 23 ….. 6 ….. 9 … 77 … 44 … 33 … 75 points – Arsenal

2017/18 ….. 4th ….. 24 ….. 7 ….. 7 … 77 … 36 … 41 … 79 points – Arsenal prediction to clinch 4th spot
2017/18 ….. 6th ….. 13 ….. 6 ….. 7 … 51 … 35 … 16 … 45 points – Arsenal after Round #26

We need to collect 34 points – 11W 1D 0L – from remaining 12 games to achieve 79 points.
Apparently, we are struggling to even maintaining our average 7 losses for the past 7 seasons.

2015/16 Leicester City proved that an inferior team can still be a title-winner by being unbeaten against Bottom-12 teams, and loses only 3 games against Top-8 teams.

A Top-4 finish requires Arsenal to remain unbeaten against Top-7 teams and beat all Bottom-13 teams now.
Only 6 or 8 points separated us from 3rd and 4th spot.
If Liverpool and Chelski continue to drop points, we have a real chance to overtake them.
Can we do a home run winning 13 consecutive games to regain Top-4 spot?

2017/18 League Table – Race for Top-4:
….. W … D ….. L ….. F ….. A … +/- __ Points
… 22 ….. 3 ….. 1 … 74 … 19 … 55 … … 69 … Abu Dhabi City
… 17 ….. 5 ….. 4 … 51 … 18 … 33 … … 56 … Manchester United
… 14 ….. 9 ….. 3 … 59 … 31 … 28 … … 51 … Liverpool
… 15 ….. 5 ….. 5 … 45 … 19 … 26 … … 50 … Chelski
… 14 ….. 7 ….. 5 … 51 … 24 … 27 … … 49 … Tiny Totts
… 13 ….. 6 ….. 7 … 51 … 35 … 16 … … 45 … Arsenal
….. 9 ….. 9 ….. 8 … 21 … 23 …. -2 … … 36 … Burnley
….. 9 ….. 8 ….. 9 … 38 … 35 ….. 3 … … 35 … Leicester City
….. 8 ….. 7 … 11 … 29 … 45 ...-16 … … 31 … Everton

………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………
During this 3rd Quarter, Man City, ManU, Liverpool, Tiny Totts and Chelski are maintaining status quo and just ahead of the chasing Pack.

Man City is still way ahead with a 13 points lead.
The chasing Pack is struggling to overhaul Man City even during 3rd Quarter.

Arsenal is going down the Table faster than Christmas dressings in the New Year due its poor 2nd and 3rd Quarter results during the wintry months, a perennial event during Arsene Wenger Era.
Perhaps, a rejuvenated Ozil, new “Henry-Pires” partnership will shoot us back into Top-4 contention.

Top-10 Teams after 3rd Quarter Round #20 to #29:
….. W … D … L ….. F ….. A … +/- __ Points
….. 5 ….. 1 … 1 … 18 ….. 8 … 10 … … 16 … Liverpool
….. 4 ….. 3 … 0 … 17 ….. 6 … 11 … … 15 … Tiny Totts
….. 4 ….. 3 … 0 … 15 ….. 9 ….. 6 … … 15 … Bournemouth
….. 4 ….. 2 … 1 … 14 ….. 7 ….. 7 … … 14 … Abu Dhabi City
….. 3 ….. 2 … 1 … 13 ….. 5 ….. 8 … … 11 … Chelski

….. 4 ….. 2 … 1 … 10 ….. 4 ….. 6 … … 11 … Manchester United
….. 3 ….. 2 … 2 … 17 … 12 ….. 5 … … 11 … Arsenal
….. 3 ….. 2 … 2 ….. 8 … 11 …. -3 … … 11 … Swansea City
….. 2 ….. 4 … 1 … 13 … 11 ….. 2 … … 10 … West Ham United
….. 2 ….. 3 … 2 ….. 8 … 10 …. -2 … ….. 9 … Crystal Palace

….. 2 ….. 2 … 3 ….. 9 ….. 7 ….. 2 … ….. 8 … Leicester City
….. 1 ….. 4 … 2 ….. 5 ….. 7 …. -2 … ….. 7 … Newcastle
….. 1 ….. 4 … 2 … 10 … 13 …. -3 … ….. 7 … Southampton
….. 1 ….. 3 … 3 ….. 7 … 10 …. -3 … ….. 6 … West Bromwich Albion
….. 1 ….. 3 … 3 ….. 6 … 12 …. -6 … ….. 6 … Brighton

….. 1 ….. 2 … 3 ….. 6 ….. 9 …. -3 … ….. 5 … Watford
….. 1 ….. 2 … 4 ….. 4 … 12 …. -8 … ….. 5 … Stoke City
….. 1 ….. 2 … 4 ….. 5 … 14 …. -9 … ….. 5 … Everton
….. 0 ….. 4 … 3 ….. 5 ….. 8 …. -3 … ….. 4 … Burnley
….. 0 ….. 2 … 5 ….. 2 … 15 ..-13 … ….. 2 … Huddersfield



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 05/02/2018 15:37 by Merlion96.


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