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Score 130-goals to win 2017/18 title?
Merlion96 (IP Logged)
09 August, 2017 11:34
Arsenal last 5 seasons League Results:
Season … Finish …. W …. D …. L ….. F ….. A … +/- … Points

2012/13 ….. 4th ….. 21 … 10 ….. 7 … 72 … 37 … 35 … 73 points
2013/14 ….. 4th ….. 24 ….. 7 ….. 7 … 68 … 41 … 27 … 79 points
2013/14 ….. 3rd ….. 22 ….. 9 ….. 7 … 71 … 36 … 35 … 75 points
2015/16 …..2nd ….. 20 … 11 ….. 7 … 65 … 34 … 31 … 71 points
2016/17 ….. 5th ….. 23 ….. 6 ….. 9 … 77 … 44 … 33 … 75 points – Arsenal

2016/17 League Results:
Season … Finish …. W …. D …. L ….. F ….. A … +/- … Points

2016/17 ….. 1st ….. 30 ….. 3 ….. 5 … 85 … 33 … 52 … 93 points – Chelski
2016/17 …..2nd ….. 26 ….. 8 ….. 4 … 86 … 26 … 60 … 86 points – Tiny Totts
2016/17 ….. 3rd ….. 23 ….. 9 ….. 6 … 80 … 39 … 41 … 78 points – Abu Dhabi City
2016/17 ….. 4th ….. 22 … 10 ….. 6 … 78 … 42 … 36 … 76 points – Liverpool
2016/17 ….. 5th ….. 23 ….. 6 ….. 9 … 77 … 44 … 33 … 75 points – Arsenal
2016/17 ….. 6th ….. 18 … 15 ….. 5 … 54 … 29 … 25 … 69 points – Manchester United
2016/17 ….. 7th ….. 17 … 10 … 11 … 62 … 44 … 18 … 61 points – Everton


Let’s have some fun again predicting the probability of us finishing Top-4 next season, and on what basis we can win the 2017/18 title.

2005/06 is still the worst season with the lowest points (67) and most losses (11) during the Arsene Wenger Era.
2006/07 and 2010/11 are the worst seasons with lowest points (68) and most losses (11) during Emirates Era.

During Emirates Era from 2006/07 to 2016/17, 2007/08 season was our best with 24 wins 11 draws and 3 losses.

Since Arsene Wenger Era, the most wins achieved are 26 wins during 2001/02 and 2003/04 seasons. That is, to win the 2017/18 title, we must collect at least 26 wins and not more 3 losses.
Basing on the predictability of Arsene Wenger’s tactics and rigid coaching and team selection method for the past 10 seasons, we were awful in 2016/17 which is shown in the following breakdown:

Arsenal 2016/17 Results Break-Down:
….. W …. D …. L ….. F ….. A … +/- __ Points
….. 4 ….. 4 ….. 6 … 20 … 21 …. -1 … … 16 … Top-8 Result
… 19 ….. 2 ….. 3 … 57 … 23 … 34 … … 59 … Bottom-12 Result

The greatest 2016/17 disappointment is that we clocked 9 losses:
• 2 home losses against Liverpool and Watford.
• 7 away losses against Everton, Man City, Chelski, Liverpool, WBA, Crystal Palace and Tiny Totts.

This is more than the 7 losses we clocked for the previous 4 consecutive seasons.
My expectation is not to lose more than 3 games if we are to win the 2017/18 title.

My expectation for Arsenal 2017/18 season is:
1st – Optimistic finish – I am the eternal optimist during autumn before the perennial “November Blip” collapse.
3rd – Expected finish – Realistically, we are far behind Guardiola Abu Dhabi City, Mourinho ManU and Conte Chelski.
5th – Pessimistic finish – If Liverpool and Tiny Totts got their collective acts together …. Hmmm.


For the past 10 seasons at Emirates Stadium, the highest league goal tally is 83 goals.

31 – Optimistic no. of league goals conceded
37 – Expected no. of league goals conceded
41 – Pessimistic no. of league goals conceded
37 – Predicted no. of league goals conceded = [(31) + (4 x 37) + (41)] / 6 = 37

My expectation is we should concede less than 31 goals.

Arsenal 2017/18 Prediction
….. W …. D …. L ….. F ….. A … +/- __ Points
… 22 … 10 ….. 6 … 74 … 37 … 37 … … 76 points – 4th spot statistical prediction
… 23 ….. 6 ….. 9 … 77 … 44 … 33 … … 75 points – 5th spot pessimistic prediction based on 2016/17 results
… 26 ….. 9 ….. 3 … 86 … 26 … 60 … … 87 points – 1st spot optimism


A summary of our 2016/17 goal-scoring prowess.
STRIKERS contributed ..... 66.39% out of 60% expectation … 79 out of 72 goals which exceeded expectation.
MIDFIELD contributed ...... 22.69% out of 30% expectation … 27 out of 36 goals.
DEFENDER contributed ..... 5.88% out of 07% expectation ….. 7 out of 08 goals.
"Dubious goal"..................... 5.04% out of 03% expectation ….. 6 out of 04 goals which exceeded expectation.

The expectation for 130-goal 2017/18 season will be:

STRIKERS contributed ..... 60% expectation … 78 goals expectation.
MIDFIELD contributed ...... 30% expectation … 39 goals.
DEFENDER contributed .... 7% expectation ……. 9 goals.
"Dubious goal".................... 3% expectation ……. 4 goals which exceeded expectation.


Community Shield is the 1st game for this season.

Sead Kolasinac scored the first goal of the season during Community Shield.
Who will score the first league goal of the season?

Sead Kolasinac is the 1st goal scorer.

The latest goal-scorer will be indicated at top of list:


….. Total ----- EPL - CL - FA – CC
….. 01 ... 01 ... 00 - 00 -- 01 -- 00 --- Sead Kolasinac

….. 00 ... 00 ... 00 - 00 -- 00 -- 00 --- Alexandre Lacazette
….. 00 ... 00 ... 00 - 00 -- 00 -- 00 --- Per Mertesacker
….. 00 ... 00 ... 00 - 00 -- 00 -- 00 --- Coquelin
….. 00 ... 00 ... 00 - 00 -- 00 -- 00 --- Mo Elneny
….. 00 ... 00 ... 00 - 00 -- 00 -- 00 --- Gabriel Paulista
….. 00 ... 00 ... 00 - 00 -- 00 -- 00 --- Kieran Gibbs
….. 00 ... 00 ... 00 - 00 -- 00 -- 00 --- Santi Cazorla

….. 00 ... 00 ... 00 - 00 -- 00 -- 00 --- Reiss Nelson
….. 00 ... 00 ... 00 - 00 -- 00 -- 00 --- Monreal
….. 00 ... 00 ... 00 - 00 -- 00 -- 00 --- Danny Welbeck
….. 00 ... 00 ... 00 - 00 -- 00 -- 00 --- Mustafi
….. 00 ... 00 ... 00 - 00 -- 00 -- 00 --- Aaron Ramsey
….. 00 ... 00 ... 00 - 00 -- 00 -- 00 --- Alex Iwobi
….. 00 ... 00 ... 00 - 00 -- 00 -- 00 --- "own" goal or "dubious" goal
….. 00 ... 00 ... 00 - 00 -- 00 -- 00 --- Olivier Giroud
….. 00 ... 00 ... 00 - 00 -- 00 -- 00 --- Lucas Perez
….. 00 ... 00 ... 00 - 00 -- 00 -- 00 --- Granit Xhaka
….. 00 ... 00 ... 00 - 00 -- 00 -- 00 --- Koscielny
….. 00 ... 00 ... 00 - 00 -- 00 -- 00 --- Mesut Ozil
….. 00 ... 00 ... 00 - 00 -- 00 -- 00 --- Alexis Sanchez
….. 00 ... 00 ... 00 - 00 -- 00 -- 00 --- Calum Chambers
….. 00 ... 00 ... 00 - 00 -- 00 -- 00 --- Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain
….. 00 ... 00 ... 00 - 00 -- 00 -- 00 --- Theo Walcott


01) Alexis...................... ..0 goals out of 20 goals expectation
02) Lacazette................ ..0 goals out of 18 goals expectation
03) Walcott................... .. 0 goals out of 15 goals expectation
04) Giroud.................... .. 0 goals out of 15 goals expectation
05) Welbeck................. .. 0 goals out of 10 goals expectation

06) Ramsey.................. .. 0 goals out of 12 goals expectation
07) Ozil ........................ .. 0 goals out of 10 goals expectation
08) OX ......................... .. 0 goals out of 05 goals expectation
09) Xhaka .................... .. 0 goals out of 05 goals expectation
10) Iwobi....................... .. 0 goals out of 05 goals expectation
11) Coquelin................. .. 0 goals out of 01 goals expectation
12) Elneny.................... .. 0 goals out of 01 goals expectation
13) Cazorla................... .. 0 goals out of 00 goals expectation
14) Reiss Nelson .......... .. 0 goals out of 00 goals expectation
15) Joe Willock ........... .. 0 goals out of 00 goals expectation
16) Maitland-Niles ......... .. 0 goals out of 00 goals expectation

17) Koscielny ............... .. 0 goals out of 02 goals expectation
18) Mustafi.................... .. 0 goals out of 01 goals expectation
19) Monreal.................. .. 0 goals out of 01 goals expectation
20) Bellerin................... .. 0 goals out of 01 goals expectation
21) Gabriel ..................... .. 0 goals out of 01 goals expectation
22) Mertesacker ........... .. 0 goals out of 02 goals expectation
23) Kolasinac................ .. 1 goals out of 01 goals which met expectation
24) “Dubious Goal” ...... .. 0 goals out of 04 goals expectation

25) Akpom.................... .. 0 goals out of 00 goal expectation
26) Chambers............... .. 0 goals out of 00 goal expectation
27) Gibbs...................... .. 0 goals out of 00 goal expectation
28) Jenkinson .............. .. 0 goals out of 00 goal expectation
29) Perez...................... .. 0 goals out of 00 goal expectation


Title-Contender Golden Gloves – Clean Sheets after Round #1 Premier League:
….. 0 – Courtois;
….. 0 – De Gea;
….. 0 – Lloris;
….. 0 – Fraser Forster;
….. 0 – Cech;
….. 0 – Tom Heaton;

1 assist out of 1 goal scored.
Chelski Community Shield – Xhaka free-kick and Kolasinac header.
OE – 0 – Opponent’s error and own goal.
SO – 0 – Solo brilliancy and free-kick.

PE – 0 – Penalty awarded – 0 converted: .
x – missed;

Assist Total --- EPL – CL – FA – CC – OE – SO – PE
….. 1 ….. 1 ..... 0 ….. 0 ….. 0 ….. 0 ---- 0 ….. 0 ….. 0 --- Xhaka

 
Re: Score 130-goals to win 2017/18 title?
tigerline (IP Logged)
09 August, 2017 15:06
Welcome back, Merl!
(Sm128)

Somewhere in this compendium, you should memorialize the converted spot kicks in the shootout from walcott, monreal, ox, and giroud.

 
Re: Score 130-goals to win 2017/18 title?
Merlion96 (IP Logged)
14 August, 2017 22:38
Wxx � August to December 2017 League Performance:


August 6, 2017 � Round #0, Match #1 Community Shield
Arsenal 1-1 Chelski
[Kolasinac]

August 11, 2017 � Round #1, Match #2
Arsenal 4-3 Leicester City
[Lacazette, Welbeck, Ramsey, Giroud]


We had scored 5 goals out of 2 games played.

The expectation for 130-goal 2017/18 season will be:

STRIKERS contributed ..... 60.00% out of 60% expectation �.. 3 out of 78 goals expectation.
MIDFIELD contributed ...... 20.00% out of 30% expectation �.. 1 out of 39 goals expectation.
DEFENDER contributed ... 20.00% out of 07% expectation �.. 1 out of 09 goals expectation.
"Dubious goal"..................... 0.00% out of 03% expectation �.. 0 out of 04 goals expectation.

The STRIKERS are Alexis Sanchez, Lacazette, Oliver Giroud, Theo Walcott, Danny Welbeck, Alex Iwobi, Lucas Perez and Chuba Akpom.

Maximum no. of games predicted = 38 + (6+6) Europa Cup + 4 Tin Cup + 6 FA Cup = 60 games.

�.. 0 goals scored = 0.00 goals per game after playing 0 League Cup game.
�.. 0 goals scored = 0.00 goals per game after playing 0 Europa Cup game.
�.. 1 goals scored = 1.00 goals per game after playing Community Shield and FA Cup Round #1.
�.. 4 goals scored = 4.00 goals per game after playing 1 League games.
�.. 5 goals scored = 2.50 goals per game after playing 2 games.

Community Shield is the 1st game for this season.

Sead Kolasinac scored the first goal of the season during Community Shield.
Lacazette scored the first league goal of the season.

There are 5 no. goal scorers with Kolasinac, Lacazette, Welbeck, Ramsey and Giroud.

The latest goal-scorer will be indicated at top of list:

�.. Total ----- EPL - CL - FA � CC
�.. 00 ... 00 ... 00 - 00 -- 00 -- 00 --- Per Mertesacker
�.. 00 ... 00 ... 00 - 00 -- 00 -- 00 --- Coquelin
�.. 00 ... 00 ... 00 - 00 -- 00 -- 00 --- Mo Elneny
�.. 00 ... 00 ... 00 - 00 -- 00 -- 00 --- Gabriel Paulista
�.. 00 ... 00 ... 00 - 00 -- 00 -- 00 --- Kieran Gibbs
�.. 00 ... 00 ... 00 - 00 -- 00 -- 00 --- Santi Cazorla

�.. 00 ... 00 ... 00 - 00 -- 00 -- 00 --- Reiss Nelson
�.. 00 ... 00 ... 00 - 00 -- 00 -- 00 --- Monreal
�.. 00 ... 00 ... 00 - 00 -- 00 -- 00 --- Mustafi
�.. 00 ... 00 ... 00 - 00 -- 00 -- 00 --- Alex Iwobi
�.. 00 ... 00 ... 00 - 00 -- 00 -- 00 --- "own" goal or "dubious" goal
�.. 00 ... 00 ... 00 - 00 -- 00 -- 00 --- Lucas Perez
�.. 00 ... 00 ... 00 - 00 -- 00 -- 00 --- Granit Xhaka
�.. 00 ... 00 ... 00 - 00 -- 00 -- 00 --- Koscielny
�.. 00 ... 00 ... 00 - 00 -- 00 -- 00 --- Mesut Ozil
�.. 00 ... 00 ... 00 - 00 -- 00 -- 00 --- Alexis Sanchez
�.. 00 ... 00 ... 00 - 00 -- 00 -- 00 --- Calum Chambers
�.. 00 ... 00 ... 00 - 00 -- 00 -- 00 --- Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain
�.. 00 ... 00 ... 00 - 00 -- 00 -- 00 --- Theo Walcott
�.. 01 ... 01 ... 01 - 00 -- 00 -- 00 --- Olivier Giroud
�.. 02 ... 01 ... 01 - 00 -- 00 -- 00 --- Aaron Ramsey
�.. 03 ... 01 ... 01 - 00 -- 00 -- 00 --- Danny Welbeck
�.. 04 ... 01 ... 01 - 00 -- 00 -- 00 --- Alexandre Lacazette
�.. 05 ... 01 ... 00 - 00 -- 01 -- 00 --- Sead Kolasinac


01) Lacazette................ ..1 goals out of 18 goals expectation
02) Giroud.................... .. 1 goals out of 15 goals expectation
03) Welbeck................. .. 1 goals out of 10 goals expectation
04) Walcott................... .. 0 goals out of 15 goals expectation
05) Alexis...................... ..0 goals out of 20 goals expectation

06) Ramsey.................. .. 1 goals out of 12 goals expectation
07) Ozil ........................ .. 0 goals out of 10 goals expectation
08) OX ......................... .. 0 goals out of 05 goals expectation
09) Xhaka .................... .. 0 goals out of 05 goals expectation
10) Iwobi....................... .. 0 goals out of 05 goals expectation
11) Coquelin................. .. 0 goals out of 01 goals expectation
12) Elneny.................... .. 0 goals out of 01 goals expectation
13) Cazorla................... .. 0 goals out of 00 goals expectation
14) Reiss Nelson .......... .. 0 goals out of 00 goals expectation
15) Joe Willock ............. .. 0 goals out of 00 goals expectation
16) Maitland-Niles ......... .. 0 goals out of 00 goals expectation

17) Koscielny ............... .. 0 goals out of 02 goals expectation
18) Mustafi.................... .. 0 goals out of 01 goals expectation
19) Monreal.................. .. 0 goals out of 01 goals expectation
20) Bellerin................... .. 0 goals out of 01 goals expectation
21) Gabriel ................... .. 0 goals out of 01 goals expectation
22) Mertesacker ........... .. 0 goals out of 02 goals expectation
23) Kolasinac................ .. 1 goals out of 01 goals which met expectation
24) �Dubious Goal� ...... .. 0 goals out of 04 goals expectation

25) Akpom.................... .. 0 goals out of 00 goal expectation
26) Chambers............... .. 0 goals out of 00 goal expectation
27) Gibbs...................... .. 0 goals out of 00 goal expectation
28) Jenkinson .............. .. 0 goals out of 00 goal expectation
29) Perez...................... .. 0 goals out of 00 goal expectation


5 assists out of 5 goals scored.
Chelski Community Shield : Xhaka free-kick and Kolasinac header.
Leicester City : Elneny lob and Lacazette header.
Leicester City : Kolasinac cross and Welbeck tap-in.
Leicester City : Xhaka lob and Ramsey lovely first touch and scored with second.
Leicester City : Xhaka corner and Giroud powerful header.

OE – 0 – Opponent’s error and own goal.
SO – 0 – Solo brilliancy and free-kick.

PE – 0 – Penalty awarded – 0 converted: .
x – 0 – missed;


Penalties Shoot-out and Penalties Awarded
….. Total ----- EPL – CL – FA – CC– Missed
..... 1 ..... 1 ….. 0 ….. 0 ….. 1 ….. 0 ---- 0 --- Walcott – Community Shield Penalty Shoot-out
..... 2 ..... 1 ….. 0 ….. 0 ….. 1 ….. 0 ---- 0 --- Monreal – Community Shield Penalty Shoot-out
..... 3 ..... 1 ….. 0 ….. 0 ….. 1 ….. 0 ---- 0 --- OX – Community Shield Penalty Shoot-out
..... 4 ..... 1 ….. 0 ….. 0 ….. 1 ….. 0 ---- 0 --- Giroud – Community Shield Penalty Shoot-out

Title-Contender Golden Gloves – Clean Sheets after Round #1 Premier League:
….. 1 – De Gea;
….. 1 – Lloris;
….. 1 – Fraser Forster;
….. 1 – Ederson;
….. 1 – Pickford;
….. 0 – Courtois;
….. 0 – Cech;
….. 0 – Tom Heaton;
….. 0 – Mignolet;
….. 0 – Butland;

Title-Contender Golden Gloves – Clean Sheets after Round #1 Premier League:
….. 1 – De Gea;
….. 1 – Lloris;
….. 1 – Fraser Forster;
….. 1 – Ederson;
….. 1 – Pickford;
….. 0 – Courtois;
….. 0 – Cech;
….. 0 – Tom Heaton;
….. 0 – Mignolet;
….. 0 – Butland;

Arsenal 2016/17 Results Break-Down:
….. W … D … L ….. F ….. A … +/- __ Points
….. 3 ….. 3 … 6 … 19 … 21 …. -2 … … 12 … Top-7 Result
… 20 ….. 3 … 3 … 58 … 23 … 35 … … 63 … Bottom-13 Result

Arsenal 2017/18 Results Break-Down:
….. W … D … L ….. F ….. A … +/- __ Points
….. 0 ….. 0 … 0 ….. 0 ….. 0 ….. 0 … ….. 0 … Top-7 Result
….. 1 ….. 0 … 0 ….. 4 ….. 3 ….. 1 … ….. 3 … Bottom-13 Result



Table A – “Traditional Top-7 Big Club” Mini-League:
….. W … D … L ….. F ….. A … +/- __ Points

….. 0 ….. 0 … 0 ….. 0 ….. 0 ….. 0 … ….. 0 … Liverpool
….. 0 ….. 0 … 0 ….. 0 ….. 0 ….. 0 … ….. 0 … Chelski
….. 0 ….. 0 … 0 ….. 0 ….. 0 ….. 0 … ….. 0 … Tiny Totts
….. 0 ….. 0 … 0 ….. 0 ….. 0 ….. 0 … ….. 0 … Manchester United
….. 0 ….. 0 … 0 ….. 0 ….. 0 ….. 0 … ….. 0 … Arsenal
….. 0 ….. 0 … 0 ….. 0 ….. 0 ….. 0 … ….. 0 … Everton
….. 0 ….. 0 … 0 ….. 0 ….. 0 ….. 0 … ….. 0 … Abu Dhabi City

Table B – Comparison of the Top-7 team against Bottom-13 teams:
….. W … D … L ….. F ….. A … +/- __ Points

….. 1 ….. 0 … 0 ….. 4 ….. 0 ….. 4 … ….. 3 … Manchester United
….. 1 ….. 0 … 0 ….. 2 ….. 0 ….. 2 … ….. 3 … Abu Dhabi City
….. 1 ….. 0 … 0 ….. 2 ….. 0 ….. 2 … ….. 3 … Tiny Totts
….. 1 ….. 0 … 0 ….. 4 ….. 3 ….. 1 … ….. 3 … Arsenal
….. 1 ….. 0 … 0 ….. 1 ….. 0 ….. 1 … ….. 3 … Everton
….. 0 ….. 1 … 0 ….. 3 ….. 3 ….. 0 … ….. 1 … Liverpool
….. 0 ….. 0 … 1 ….. 2 ….. 3 …. -1 … ….. 0 … Chelski


2015/16 Leicester City proved that an inferior team can still be a title-winner by being unbeaten against Bottom-12 teams, and loses only 3 games against Top-8 teams.
This season, a strengthened Man City and ManU will be a different kind of animal and will be virtually unbeatable.



Edited 3 time(s). Last edit at 15/08/2017 06:19 by Merlion96.

 
Re: Score 130-goals to win 2017/18 title?
SandyB (IP Logged)
15 August, 2017 00:03
Did Arsenal ever scored 130 goals excluding friendles in a season?

 
Re: Score 130-goals to win 2017/18 title?
MattySadler (IP Logged)
15 August, 2017 09:07
Quote:
SandyB
Did Arsenal ever scored 130 goals excluding friendles in a season?

Of course not, that's why we don't win the title very often!

 
Re: Score 130-goals to win 2017/18 title?
Merlion96 (IP Logged)
15 August, 2017 14:09
Quote:
MattySadler
Quote:
SandyB
Did Arsenal ever scored 130 goals excluding friendles in a season?

Of course not, that's why we don't win the title very often!

(Sm6)(Sm152)



Benjamin Franklin: "… when you assemble a number of Arsenal fans to have the advantage of their joint wisdom, you inevitably assemble with those Arsenal fans, all their prejudices, their passions, their errors of opinion, their local interests, and their selfish views." (Sm3)


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