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Liverpool, ManU, Man City and Arsenal fighting for 3rd and 4th spot
Merlion96 (IP Logged)
06 April, 2017 11:47
LDW WWW WWDW DDW WWLL – August to December 2016 League Performance:
WDWWL LW LL DW – January to May 2017 League Performance:


4-April –
Arsenal 3-0 West Ham
Leicester 2-0 Sunderland
Swansea 1-3 Tottenham
Man Utd 1-1 Everton
Chelsea 2-1 Man City
Liverpool 2-2 Bournemouth

League Results after Round #31:
Season … Finish …. W …. D …. L ….. F ….. A … +/- … Points
2016/17 ….. 1st ….. 23 ….. 3 ….. 4 … 62 … 24 … 38 … 72 points – Chelski*
2016/17 …..2nd ….. 19 ….. 8 ….. 3 … 60 … 22 … 38 … 65 points – Tiny Totts*
2016/17 ….. 3rd ….. 17 ….. 9 ….. 5 … 66 … 39 … 27 … 60 points – Liverpool
2016/17 ….. 4th ….. 17 ….. 7 ….. 6 … 57 … 34 … 23 … 58 points – Abu Dhabi City*
2016/17 ….. 6th ….. 16 ….. 6 ….. 7 … 61 … 36 … 25 … 54 points – Arsenal**
2016/17 ….. 5th ….. 14 … 12 ….. 3 … 43 … 24 … 19 … 54 points – Manchester United**
2016/17 ….. 7th ….. 14 ….. 9 ….. 8 … 53 … 34 … 19 … 51 points – Everton

* One game in hand.
** Two games in hand.

Arsenal had 7 losses and counting – against Liverpool (both legs), Everton (A), Abu Dhabi City (A), Watford (H), Chelski (A) and WBA (A).


Table A – “Traditional Top-8 Big Club” Mini-League which included Leicester City:
….. W … D … L ….. F ….. A … +/- __ Points
….. 8 ….. 5 … 1 … 25 … 14 … 11 … … 29 … Liverpool
….. 8 ….. 1 … 3 … 27 … 12 … 15 … … 25 … Chelski
….. 3 ….. 5 … 3 … 14 … 13 ….. 1 … … 14 … Tiny Totts
….. 3 ….. 4 … 2 … 12 … 10 ….. 2 … … 13 … Manchester United
….. 3 ….. 4 … 4 … 15 … 17 …. -2 … … 13 … Everton
….. 2 ….. 4 … 6 … 14 … 24 … -10 … … 10 … Abu Dhabi City
….. 2 ….. 2 … 6 … 10 … 23 …-13 … ….. 8 … Leicester City
….. 1 ….. 4 … 5 … 14 … 18 …. -4 … ….. 7 … Arsenal


The reason why Arsenal is in 5th position is they are the worst performance in Top-8 Mini-League. And I cannot see Arsenal winning anyone of these remaining 4 games:

29 Apr – Tottenham V Arsenal
?? Apr – Arsenal vs Leicester City
06 May – Arsenal V Man Utd
21 May – Arsenal V Everton

Table B – Comparison of the Top-8 team against Bottom-12 teams:
….. W … D … L ….. F ….. A … +/- __ Points
… 16 ..... 3 … 0 …. 46 ….. 9 … 37 … … 51 … Tiny Totts
… 15 ..... 3 … 0 …. 43 … 10 … 33 … … 48 … Abu Dhabi City
… 15 ..... 2 … 1 …. 35 … 12 … 23 … … 47 … Chelski
… 15 ..... 2 … 2 …. 47 … 18 … 29 … … 47 … Arsenal
… 11 ..... 8 … 1 …. 31 … 13 … 18 … … 41 … Manchester United
… 11 ..... 5 … 4 …. 38 … 16 … 22 … … 38 … Everton
….. 9 ..... 4 … 4 …. 43 … 27 … 16 … … 31 … Liverpool
….. 8 ..... 4 … 8 …. 27 … 24 ….. 3 … … 28 … Leicester City


Table B indicated that Tiny Totts and Abu Dhabi City are still unbeaten against Bottom-12 teams, and why Tiny Totts is battling Chelski for the title.
The loss to Chelski meant that Abu Dhabi City is out of the title race.
2015/16 Leicester City proved that an inferior team can still be a title-winner by being unbeaten against Bottom-12 teams, and loses only 3 games against Top-8 teams.

Table A clearly indicated why Arsenal is out of the title race due to them being the worst Top-8 team performer.
Liverpool crashed out of the title race during 3rd Quarter by winning only 3 games out of 10 games played.
Arsenal crashed out of Top-4 during 3rd Quarter by winning only 4 games out of 10 games played.
Arsenal Decline started in 2nd Quarter by winning only 5 games out of 9 games played.
Everton has a great 3rd Quarter and can challenge for Top-4 but started to falter during 4th Quarter.

Chelski is running away with the title race by winning consistently against Top-8 teams and Bottom-12 teams as well.
Chelski will win the title with 6W 0D 2L out of remaining 8 games.

All that is left for Arsenal is a grim struggle to retain Top-4 status.


Performances needed from Arsenal to collect 73 points to clinch 4th spot are tabulated below:
Arsenal Results Break-Down:
….. W …. D …. L ….. F ….. A … +/- __ Points
….. 1 ….. 4 ….. 5 … 14 … 18 …. -4 … ….. 7 … Top-8 Result
… 15 ….. 2 ….. 2 … 47 … 18 … 29 … … 47 … Bottom-12 Result

Future results from remaining 12 games to achieve 73 points:
….. W …. D …. L ….. F ….. A … +/- __ Points
… 16 ….. 6 ….. 7 … 61 … 36 … 25 … … 54 points – Arsenal current League Result – Round #29
….. 1 ….. 3 ….. 0 ….. 4 ….. 1 ….. 3 … ….. 6 points from remaining Top-8 games prediction.
….. 4 ….. 1 ….. 0 ….. 8 ….. 4 ….. 4 … … 13 points from remaining Bottom-12 games prediction.


… 21 … 10 ….. 7 … 73 … 41 … 32 … … 73 points – 3rd spot statistical prediction
… 19 … 12 ….. 7 … 68 … 41 … 27 … … 69 points – 5th spot pessimistic prediction
… 27 ….. 8 ….. 3 … 83 … 31 … 52 … … 89 points – 1st spot optimism but out of title race at Round #24

We need these remaining game results 5W 4D 0L to collect 73 points to stand a chance to cliché Top-4 spot.

Our next 9 opponents and results needed to collect 73 points:
D -- Round #26 – Southampton P-P Arsenal
W -- Round #28 – Arsenal P-P Leicester City
W -- Round # 32 – Crystal Palace V Arsenal
W -- Round # 33 – Middlesbrough V Arsenal
W -- Round # 34 – Arsenal V Sunderland
D -- Round # 35 – Tottenham V Arsenal
D -- Round # 36 – Arsenal V Man Utd
D -- Round # 37 – Stoke V Arsenal
D -- Round # 38 – Arsenal V Everton

……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..

After Round #29, it is our worst season since 2008/09, 2012/13 and 2015/16; similar to the 2015/16 shameful collapse.

We had a real chance to win the title for 3 out of 10 previous seasons if we had not continue to collapse during March and finally, during April Easter Weekend:

2007/08 – 1 point behind ManU; [February BRUM Collapse continued with 3 consecutive draws]
2009/10 – 3 points behind Chelski;
2010/11 – 2 points behind ManU;
2013/14 – 6 point behind Abu Dhabi City;
2015/16 – 8 points behind Leicester City; [Collapse continued with Tiny Totts draw]
2016/17 – 18 points behind Chelski.


Table A – Round #29 – Emirates Era past 10 league champions:
Season … Finish …. W …. D …. L ….. F ….. A … +/- … Points
2006/07 ….. 1st ….. 23 ….. 3 ….. 3 … 65 … 19 … 46 … 72 points – Manchester United
2006/07 ….. 4th ….. 16 ….. 7 ….. 6 … 51 … 24 … 27 … 55 points – Arsenal

2007/08 ….. 1st ….. 20 ….. 4 ….. 4 … 58 … 15 … 43 … 67 points – Manchester United
2007/08 ….. 3rd …. 19 ….. 9 ….. 1 … 57 … 21 … 36 … 66 points – Arsenal

2008/09 ….. 1st ….. 20 ….. 5 ….. 4 … 49 … 18 … 31 … 65 points – Manchester United
2008/09 ….. 4th ….. 14 … 10 ….. 5 … 45 … 26 … 19 … 52 points – Arsenal

2009/10 ….. 1st ….. 20 ….. 4 ….. 5 … 69 … 27 … 42 … 64 points – Chelski
2009/10 ….. 3rd …. 19 ….. 4 ….. 6 … 69 … 32 … 37 … 61 points – Arsenal

2010/11 ….. 1st ….. 17 ….. 9 ….. 3 … 63 … 30 … 33 … 60 points – Manchester United
2010/11 ….. 4th ….. 17 ….. 7 ….. 5 … 59 … 29 … 30 … 58 points – Arsenal

2011/12 ….. 1st ….. 22 ….. 3 ….. 4 … 71 … 21 … 50 … 69 points – Abu Dhabi City
2011/12 ….. 3rd …. 17 ….. 4 ….. 8 … 58 … 39 … 19 … 55 points – Arsenal

2012/13 ….. 1st ….. 24 ….. 2 ….. 3 … 69 … 31 … 38 … 74 points – Manchester United
2012/13 ….. 4th ….. 14 ….. 8 ….. 7 … 55 … 32 … 23 … 50 points – Arsenal

2013/14 ….. 1st ….. 20 ….. 3 ….. 5 … 76 … 27 … 49 … 66 points – Abu Dhabi City
2013/14 ….. 4th ….. 18 ….. 6 ….. 5 … 54 … 30 … 24 … 60 points – Arsenal

2014/15 ….. 1st ….. 20 ….. 7 ….. 2 … 61 … 25 … 36 … 67 points – Chelski
2014/15 ….. 3rd …. 17 ….. 6 ….. 6 … 56 … 30 … 26 … 57 points – Arsenal

2015/16 ….. 1st ….. 17 ….. 9 ….. 3 … 52 … 31 … 21 … 60 points – Leicester City
2015/16 …..2nd ….. 15 ….. 7 ….. 7 … 46 … 30 … 16 … 52 points – Arsenal

2016/17 ….. 1st ….. 23 ….. 3 ….. 3 … 61 … 22 … 39 … 72 points – Chelski
2016/17 ….. 5th ….. 16 ….. 6 ….. 7 … 61 … 36 … 25 … 54 points – Arsenal

 
Re: Liverpool, ManU, Man City and Arsenal fighting for 3rd and 4th spot
Merlion96 (IP Logged)
15 April, 2017 02:29
During the 1st Quarter, Arsenal was keeping pace with the leaders but during 2nd Quarter, we started to decline and starting to fall off the pace.
It was the dramatic collapse during the 3rd Quarter – yes, the wintry months – that utterly derailed our season, and the collapse continues right into April, which is a surprise, an anomaly during Arsene Wenger Era.
It was always during late-March/April for the past 20 seasons that Wenger’s Arsenal will start their late surge to clinch 4th spot right to the last game of the season.
And this can happen too for 2016/17 season – but dependence very much on the collapse of Liverpool, ManU and Man City for the next 6 to 8 games now; and of course, Arsenal stringing together 8 consecutive wins, beating ManU, Tiny Totts and Everton in the process.


Table C4 - 4th Quarter- Round #30 to #38 - 12-Mar-2016 to 15-May-2016:

….. W … D … L ….. F ….. A … +/- __ Points
….. 2 ..... 1 … 0 …… 7 ….. 4 ….. 3 … ….. 7 … Liverpool
….. 2 ..... 0 … 0 …… 7 ….. 1 ….. 6 … ….. 6 … Tiny Totts
….. 2 ..... 0 … 0 …… 5 ….. 2 ….. 3 … ….. 6 … Chelski
….. 1 ..... 1 … 1 …… 6 ….. 6 ….. 0 … ….. 4 … Everton
….. 1 ..... 0 … 0 …… 3 ….. 1 ….. 2 … ….. 3 … Manchester United
….. 1 ..... 0 … 1 …… 4 ….. 3 ….. 1 … ….. 3 … Abu Dhabi City
….. 1 ..... 0 … 1 …… 4 ….. 4 ….. 0 … ….. 3 … Leicester City
….. 0 ..... 0 … 1 …… 0 ….. 3 …. -3 … ….. 0 … Arsenal



Table C3 – 3rd Quarter – Round #20 to #29 – 2-Jan-2017 to 18-Mar-2017:

….. W … D … L ….. F ….. A … +/- __ Points
….. 7 ..... 2 … 1 …. 26 ….. 7 … 19 … … 23 … Everton
….. 7 ..... 2 … 1 …. 20 ….. 7 … 13 … … 23 … Tiny Totts
….. 6 ..... 2 … 2 …. 18 … 10 ….. 8 … … 20 … Chelski
….. 5 ..... 4 … 1 …. 17 … 11 ….. 6 … … 19 … Abu Dhabi City
….. 4 ..... 6 … 0 …. 13 ….. 4 ….. 9 … … 18 … Manchester United
….. 4 ..... 2 … 4 …. 20 … 17 ….. 3 … … 14 … Arsenal
….. 3 ..... 4 … 3 …. 15 … 15 ….. 0 … … 13 … Liverpool
….. 4 ..... 1 … 5 …. 11 … 17 …. -6 … … 13 … Leicester City


Table C2 – 2nd Quarter – Round #11 to #19 – 5-Nov-2016 to 31-Dec-2016:

….. W … D … L ….. F ….. A … +/- __ Points
….. 9 ... 0 … 0 …. 21 ….. 4 … 17 … … 27 … Chelski
….. 6 ... 3 … 0 …. 16 ….. 7 ….. 9 … … 21 … Manchester United
….. 6 ... 2 … 1 …. 22 ….. 8 … 14 … … 20 … Liverpool
….. 6 ... 1 … 2 …. 23 ….. 9 … 14 … … 19 … Tiny Totts
….. 5 ... 2 … 2 …. 18 ….. 9 ….. 9 … … 17 … Arsenal
….. 5 ... 1 … 3 …. 15 … 12 ….. 3 … … 16 … Abu Dhabi City
….. 2 ... 3 … 4 …. 10 … 15 …. -5 … ….. 9 … Everton
….. 2 ... 2 … 5 …. 12 … 15 …. -3 … ….. 8 … Leicester City


Table C1 – 1st Quarter – Round #1 to #10 – 13-Aug-2016 to 29-Oct-2016:

….. W … D … L ….. F ….. A … +/- __ Points
….. 7 ... 2 … 1 …. 24 ….. 9 … 15 … … 23 … Abu Dhabi City
….. 7 ... 2 … 1 …. 23 … 10 … 13 … … 23 … Arsenal
….. 7 ... 2 … 1 …. 24 … 13 … 11 … … 23 … Liverpool
….. 7 ... 1 … 2 …. 21 ….. 9 … 12 … … 22 … Chelski
….. 5 ... 5 … 0 …. 14 ….. 5 ….. 9 … … 20 … Tiny Totts
….. 5 ... 3 … 2 …. 15 ….. 8 ….. 7 … … 18 … Everton
….. 4 ... 3 … 3 …. 13 … 12 ….. 1 … … 15 … Manchester United
….. 3 ... 3 … 4 …. 12 … 16 …. -4 … … 12 … Leicester City



After Round #30, it is our 2nd worst season after 2012/13; similar to the 2015/16 shameful collapse.

We had a real chance to win the title for 4 out of 10 previous seasons if we had not continue to collapse during March and finally, during April Easter Weekend:

2007/08 – 3 point behind ManU; [February BRUM Collapse continued with 4 consecutive draws]
2009/10 – 1 point behind Chelski;
2010/11 – 4 point behind ManU; [March Collapse continued with 2 consecutive draws]
2013/14 – 4 point behind Abu Dhabi City;
2015/16 – 8 point behind Leicester City; [Collapse started with 5-Mar-2016 Tiny Totts draw]
2016/17 – 21 point behind Chelski. [Collapse started on 14-Dec-2016 with consecutive losses to Everton & Man City]

Table A – Round #30 – Emirates Era past 10 league champions:
Season … Finish …. W …. D …. L ….. F ….. A … +/- … Points
2006/07 ….. 1st ….. 24 ….. 3 ….. 3 … 69 … 20 … 49 … 75 points – Manchester United
2006/07 ….. 4th ….. 16 ….. 7 ….. 7 … 52 … 28 … 24 … 55 points – Arsenal

2007/08 ….. 1st ….. 22 ….. 4 ….. 4 … 61 … 15 … 46 … 70 points – Manchester United
2007/08 ….. 3rd …. 19 … 10 ….. 1 … 58 … 22 … 36 … 67 points – Arsenal

2008/09 ….. 1st ….. 21 ….. 5 ….. 4 … 52 … 20 … 32 … 68 points – Manchester United
2008/09 ….. 4th ….. 15 … 10 ….. 5 … 48 … 27 … 21 … 55 points – Arsenal

2009/10 ….. 1st ….. 20 ….. 5 ….. 5 … 70 … 28 … 42 … 65 points – Chelski
2009/10 ….. 3rd …. 20 ….. 4 ….. 6 … 71 … 33 … 38 … 64 points – Arsenal

2010/11 ….. 1st ….. 18 ….. 9 ….. 3 … 64 … 30 … 34 … 63 points – Manchester United
2010/11 ….. 4th ….. 17 ….. 8 ….. 5 … 59 … 29 … 30 … 59 points – Arsenal

2011/12 ….. 1st ….. 22 ….. 4 ….. 4 … 72 … 22 … 50 … 70 points – Abu Dhabi City
2011/12 ….. 3rd …. 18 ….. 4 ….. 8 … 61 … 39 … 22 … 58 points – Arsenal

2012/13 ….. 1st ….. 25 ….. 2 ….. 3 … 70 … 31 … 39 … 77 points – Manchester United
2012/13 ….. 4th ….. 15 ….. 8 ….. 7 … 59 … 33 … 26 … 53 points – Arsenal

2013/14 ….. 1st ….. 21 ….. 4 ….. 5 … 80 … 28 … 52 … 67 points – Abu Dhabi City
2013/14 ….. 4th ….. 19 ….. 6 ….. 5 … 55 … 30 … 25 … 63 points – Arsenal

2014/15 ….. 1st ….. 20 ….. 7 ….. 2 … 61 … 25 … 36 … 67 points – Chelski
2014/15 ….. 3rd …. 17 ….. 6 ….. 6 … 56 … 30 … 26 … 57 points – Arsenal

2015/16 ….. 1st ….. 18 ….. 9 ….. 3 … 53 … 31 … 22 … 63 points – Leicester City
2015/16 …..2nd ….. 16 ….. 7 ….. 7 … 48 … 30 … 18 … 55 points – Arsenal

2016/17 ….. 1st ….. 24 ….. 3 ….. 4 … 65 … 25 … 40 … 75 points – Chelski
2016/17 ….. 6th ….. 16 ….. 6 ….. 8 … 61 … 39 … 22 … 54 points – Arsenal


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