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Cheltenham - How should we bet?
colinwaldron (IP Logged)
06 March, 2016 14:10
Everyone who loves horseracing must look forward to the Cheltenham, four days of quality races and plenty of big sized fields to get stuck into; 28 races in all and the temptation is there to want to have a dabble in all of them(Sm14) but how realistic is it to do that? It is easy to get carried away and want to do just that and the races come around that fast and day after day that I pose the question "should we try to rate the chances of getting the winner in each of the races, before the action actually kicks off?"

Now some may say I am being a killjoy in wanting to put such a question up for discussion, but this year I have attempted to do just that and have attempted to look at all the races from some way out with a view to rating the degree of difficulty in finding a winner, I have called this my "Race Rating Indicators". The idea is that this hopefully will help me to maximise and minimise the amount we invest on each race.

I know we still have 9 days before the "off" and potential winners may come out of the race before the actual day of the race but I hope to be able to monitor the changing degree of difficulty as each day goes by, so that come the opening day, I have already firmed up which races I want to be a big player in and which ones I might only want to invest on the small side or even swerve.

Talking nonesense(Sm14) well I am giving it a go this year, so we shall see(Sm13) anyway here are my "Race Rating Indicators" for the four days; zero indicates very difficut, with 10
less difficult:

Tuesday
1.30 JLT Novices Chase - 2
2.10 Pertemps Final Handicap Hurdle - 9 Douvan
2.50 Ryanir Chase - 0
3.30 Ryanir World Chase - 3
4.10 Brown Advisory Handicap Chase - 4 Vroum Vroum Mag
4.50 Kim Muir handicap Chase - 0
5.30 Stud Mares Novices Hurdle - 1

Wednesday
1.30 Neptune Novices Hurdle - 5 Yanworth
2.10 RSA Chase - 2
2.50 Coral Cup - 1
3.30 Queen Mother Champion Chase - 7 Un De Sceaux
4.10 Cross Country Chase - 0
4.50 Fred Winter handicap Hurdle - 0
5.30 Weatherbys Champion Bumper - 0

Thursday
1.30 Supreme Novices - 1
2.10 Arkle Chase - 2
2.50 Ultima Handicap Chase - 0
3.30 Champion Hurdle - 7 Thistlecrack
4.10 David Nicholson Mares Hurdle - 0
4.50 National Hunt Chase - 1
5.30 Novices Handicap Chase - 3

Friday
1.30 JCB Triumph Hurdle - 0
2.10 Vincent O'Brien County Hurdle - 0
2.50 Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle - 2
3.30 Gold Cup - 1
4.10 Foxhunter Chase - 0
4.50 Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle - 1
5.30 Grand Annual Chase - 1

Not a great antepost player but I compiled this rating on Friday and the 5 I have flagged up I have backed in a win Lucky31 bet, it also looks to me that the days get progressively more difficult as we go through the week, with Friday looking the most difficult day of the lot!(Sm8)



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.............
"Say no to the car scrappage scheme"
Ex Aintree Naps Champion
Ex Naps Champion
Ex Cheltenham Naps Champion



Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 07/03/2016 12:05 by colinwaldron.

 
Re: Cheltenham - How should we bet?
Foreverclaret (IP Logged)
06 March, 2016 19:40
Very rarely do I bet ante post, the National is one I do go for, but Cheltenham I do wait until the day before until I start looking seriously, IMO there is far too much of a risk in particular with the weather, I certainly don't bet on every race most races have far too many runners for me, but I do like to have a not so serious punt.

I have attached a link to an article that is well worth reading, most of yours get a mention CW

Cheltenham

 
Re: Cheltenham - How should we bet?
Alfie (IP Logged)
06 March, 2016 20:55
I do two lucky fifteens every day ..

 
Re: Cheltenham - How should we bet?
BC2 (IP Logged)
06 March, 2016 23:00
I used to have a shed-load of Cheltenham ante-post vouchers by this time, I would spend hours on it in the three months leading up to the festival, but not any more. Mullins has killed it for me, it was hard enough trying to work out what might win, now you don't even know what race a lot of the leading fancies will be running in, it's a right can of worms, so what's the point.

I haven't given up to it altogether though, I still have 8 on the go and most of them NRNB so I should be OK. Pride of place goes to Yanworth in the Neptune, Alan King said this was the best horse he'd ever trained, so I lumped on at 9/1 with Hills, 5/4 with PP is the best available now. It doesn't always work out so well though.

I put my last one on this afternoon, Johns Spirit in the Brown Advisory, a race zero rated race by CW, but it's 12/1 and I'm thinking it could be a lot shorter on the day.

Best of luck with your ratings CW, it'll be interesting to see how it pans out, if they help or hinder.

 
Re: Cheltenham - How should we bet?
BC2 (IP Logged)
06 March, 2016 23:05
Just seen that link you've put up FC, those guys know the time of day and four of them picked Johns Spirit, which is why I've got on this afternoon.(Sm14)

 
Re: Cheltenham - How should we bet?
colinwaldron (IP Logged)
07 March, 2016 08:25
Good to get some pre Cheltenham debate started(Sm13)

Most people so far in reply seem to be focusing on possible antepost possibilities; I am sorry if that is how this has come accross when really my aim was to rate each of the races to assess which ones effectively looked like mine fields to punt in and which ones less so and therefore provide me with a guide to determinewhich races to punt low or avoid and which ones to feel more confident about.(Sm14)

The other factor is that this "rating" system is that it is not about getting value and indeed the real value may come in races which as BC has said I had identified as zero rating and his selection John's Spirit; in that particular race when I looked at it I had Johns spirit alongside Stilleto as the joint two leading win possibilities; although I also identified Doctor Harper; Art Mauresque (ran a shocker on Saturday), Oscar Rock, Generous Ransom and Irish Cavalier on the possible win list; so with 7 potential winners on my radar, it was one of those races I rated a minefield and it got a zero rating.



http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v667/Turfite/colsig.jpg


.............
"Say no to the car scrappage scheme"
Ex Aintree Naps Champion
Ex Naps Champion
Ex Cheltenham Naps Champion

 
Re: Cheltenham - How should we bet?
BC2 (IP Logged)
07 March, 2016 10:57
Without checking out the individual race CW, would it be right to assume the zero rated minefields are generally the big field handicaps, or are there some of the Championship races we should beware of ?

Sorry if I seemed to be hi-jacking the thread to rabbit on about my ante-post, it's just that at this stage, apart from the few AP bets I've put on, thanks to Mullins I haven't looked at most of the other races like the Gold Cup and Champion Hurdle. Just seems pointless until he makes his mind up what he's running and where.

Just as an example I couldn't even tell you what's running in the Gold Cup, or what the favourite is, Mullins has just caused me to lose all interest, but I'll be keen enough when the decs are out, I'll sort it out then. What rating has the Gold Cup incidentally ?

 
Re: Cheltenham - How should we bet?
colinwaldron (IP Logged)
07 March, 2016 11:25
BC the Gold Cup is the 3.30 on Friday which I have down as a 1 rating, so not the worst but I had 5 "potential" winners in it when I put this stuff together last Friday; they were most fancied Don Poli; then Cue card, followed by Don Cossack; followed by Vautour and then Djakadam; so with all 5 having "a chance" and not one clearly standing out well ahead on my radar, it became one of the "minefield" races.

I am a bit busy in the greenhouse at the moment but what I will do is update the opening thread with the names of the races alongside the times to make it easier for people to see which race is which, later on today(Sm13)

I don't think you are trying to hijack the thread by the way; I know you like to look at antepost at these type of Meetings; so any input people can bring to the discussion is fine by me; like I have said the aim of doing this was to provide me with some kind of compass to identify which races are more trickier than others and hopefully help me distribute my funds into bets more efficently.(Sm13)



http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v667/Turfite/colsig.jpg


.............
"Say no to the car scrappage scheme"
Ex Aintree Naps Champion
Ex Naps Champion
Ex Cheltenham Naps Champion

 
Re: Cheltenham - How should we bet?
BC2 (IP Logged)
07 March, 2016 12:05
This might be helpful to me and you both CW, and any others who are good at the Crossbar Challenge.

PaddyPower are offering money back if your horse finishes 2nd in all races at the Festival. That will make a big difference when I decide where to place my bets, PP could be getting a lot of my business.

 
Re: Cheltenham - How should we bet?
BC2 (IP Logged)
07 March, 2016 22:25
I'll be on with SkyBet in the first race though, as they're offering money back if your horse loses the first race, every day of the meeting.

When I think back to the days of betting tax, and unless you were in the shop to take a price, it was either first show or ripped off with SP. And now they just can't stop chucking money at you. Love it.(Sm160)

 
Re: Cheltenham - How should we bet?
BC2 (IP Logged)
10 March, 2016 10:30
"PaddyPower are offering money back if your horse finishes 2nd in all races at the Festival."

Not to me they're not, they've just placed restrictions on my account. They don't mention BOGs though, so maybe I can still beat SP with them, I'll find out soon enough.

So that's PP, Stan James, Coral and Boylesport all put me on their blacklist, (can I still say that ? confused smiley) yet the amounts I'm winning off them is pennies. No matter, there are more bookies out there than you can shake a shitty stick at, it's still no problem getting a bet on.

 
Re: Cheltenham - How should we bet?
Alfie (IP Logged)
10 March, 2016 16:21
Quote:
BC2
"PaddyPower are offering money back if your horse finishes 2nd in all races at the Festival."
Not to me they're not, they've just placed restrictions on my account. They don't mention BOGs though, so maybe I can still beat SP with them, I'll find out soon enough.

So that's PP, Stan James, Coral and Boylesport all put me on their blacklist, (can I still say that ? confused smiley) yet the amounts I'm winning off them is pennies. No matter, there are more bookies out there than you can shake a shitty stick at, it's still no problem getting a bet on.

Why are they placing restrictions on your accounts BC ? I take it that you have fleeced them all at some point. (Sm128)

 
Re: Cheltenham - How should we bet?
BC2 (IP Logged)
10 March, 2016 19:52
Stan James, Coral and Boylesport I have no idea Alfie, I was in front with all of them, but with none of them was I more than £100 up and I wasn't taking anything from the accounts, it was all there for them to win back. I can only assume if you're not losing money to them they don't want your business, no matter how small the amounts, what else could it be.

With Power I think they suspect I'm using their offers, bonuses etc for matched betting purposes, which I am, so I can't complain. I have tried to disguise this activity as best I could, but I believe they are very strict about it and I know two other people doing the same thing as me who have been 'gubbed' by them recently. Some bookies are far more tolerant of it than others, Power are one of those that aren't, you do well to survive long with PP if you're matched betting, I think they were bound to get me in the end.

 
Re: Cheltenham - How should we bet?
BC2 (IP Logged)
10 March, 2016 20:39
Just been on one of the MB forums, seems like PaddyPower are having a purge, it's not just me, hundreds of accounts being restricted.

 
Re: Cheltenham - How should we bet?
Foreverclaret (IP Logged)
11 March, 2016 12:23
BC, just a question regarding these betting account restrictions, my main account is with Billy Hills currently standing at £850.00p, if I transfer all this out will it mean when I start betting again I will have restrictions?

I am not sure how this works because it has not affected me before, the last time I withdrew serious monies was about 3 years ago when I transferred out £1000.00p with no warnings or restrictions.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 11/03/2016 12:23 by Foreverclaret.

 
Re: Cheltenham - How should we bet?
colinwaldron (IP Logged)
11 March, 2016 13:14
FC I think withdrawals are part and parcel of having the account, when I have withdrawn from Paddy Power, Betfred, Bet365 and BetVictor in the past it has had no adverse affect on my account functioning but with having 4 different bookies it means I am able to keep smaller amounts in each one, so that I can hunt around for the best prices and still have enough in each one to enable me to continue to bet as I like. Don't fully understand why an account would be blocked, unless you were a big player taking large amounts out of them in winnings.



http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v667/Turfite/colsig.jpg


.............
"Say no to the car scrappage scheme"
Ex Aintree Naps Champion
Ex Naps Champion
Ex Cheltenham Naps Champion

 
Re: Cheltenham - How should we bet?
BC2 (IP Logged)
11 March, 2016 13:45
FC, if you're just betting normally I don't think you'd be restricted if you withdrew some money. If they suspected you of abusing their offers and were withdrawing regularly then they might.

None of my accounts have been closed, I can still bet with all of them, they just won't give me the BOG offers, free bets, enhanced prices etc. Although I'm hoping I can still get the BOG from PP. I might find out today, I've put three bets on with them.

 
Re: Cheltenham - How should we bet?
Foreverclaret (IP Logged)
11 March, 2016 15:44
Cheers guys (Sm160) Looks like I will have to open a few more accounts.

 
Re: Cheltenham - How should we bet?
colinwaldron (IP Logged)
11 March, 2016 16:23
I would FC, its more of an hassle to sort through them to get the best odds/offers but when you price up the returns on say a Lucky 15 bet you will be surprised to see how the returns will differ.



http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v667/Turfite/colsig.jpg


.............
"Say no to the car scrappage scheme"
Ex Aintree Naps Champion
Ex Naps Champion
Ex Cheltenham Naps Champion

 
Re: Cheltenham - How should we bet?
colinwaldron (IP Logged)
16 March, 2016 07:52
Day 1 Tuesday and two of the 5 for the meeting came in Douvan and Vroum Vroum Mag, today (Wednesday) is the turn of Yanworth and Un De Sceaux, fingers crossed.



http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v667/Turfite/colsig.jpg


.............
"Say no to the car scrappage scheme"
Ex Aintree Naps Champion
Ex Naps Champion
Ex Cheltenham Naps Champion

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