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BC2 (IP Logged)
04 January, 2016 22:26
Southwell 3.40 Your Lucky Day

Thrown up by one of my most successful systems, running a 30% SR and a decent level-stake profit.

Hard to know what form the stable's in, Dwyer has only had one runner since Christmas Day, but he had two winners and a second earlier in December from not many runners, so no need to worry really.

Champion jockey De Sousa booked to ride, 23% SR and a level stake profit riding for Dwyer, looks like he's one of his go-to jockeys, so that's a plus, especially as he's replacing a 7lb claimer.

Ran down the field three times in maidens over 7/8f, then 2nd in a Southwell maiden dropped back to 6f, that run got it rated 55, the highest in this field, and over 6f again, on only it's fifth run it has the potential to improve and could be anything.

Currently 4/1 2nd favourite which seems fair enough to me, given all of the above, and yet I can't bring myself to put the money down.

There is one big drawback, 6f at Southwell, 12 runners, and it's drawn 1. My stalls analysing software tells me that of the last 93 races over 6f at Southwell with 12 runners, only THREE have won coming out of stall 1, it's the coffin box.

It's a systems horse, I should back it blindly, but despite the jockey booking indicating Dwyer means business with this one, it looks likely to be stuffed by the draw, I think I'll let it go unbacked and watch from behind the settee.

What would you do ?

 
Re: Question
Foreverclaret (IP Logged)
04 January, 2016 22:55
As you are leaving it unbacked, I have just bacvked it, I have had a good look at the race and with the jockey booking I have decided regardless of the draw to have a punt. Sometimes you can look into these things too much I usually go with my gut instinct, therefore I am on it.

 
Re: Question
BC2 (IP Logged)
05 January, 2016 02:19
I am going with my gut feeling FC, my system and the jockey booking says back it, but my gut feeling says don't ignore the draw stats. It's a good system, 30% SR, but that still means 7 out of every 10 get beat, I think this is likely to be one of them.

I don't often take much account of the draw these days but the stats are so strong over 6f at Southwell that I've had a bet mainly on the draw. Stalls 1 and 2 have won 8/93, stalls 3 and 4 have won 25/93. There's a rag in 4, so I've had a bet on Artbeat in stall 3.

 
Re: Question
BC2 (IP Logged)
05 January, 2016 12:09
I've given in and had a bit of 4/1. I can't let it run un-backed, I'd rather watch it stuffed by the draw with my money on, than watch it win without a penny on.

And Silvestre knows the time of day, if anyone can overcome that bad draw he can.

 
Re: Question
Foreverclaret (IP Logged)
05 January, 2016 18:34
Well that defeat wasn't the draw BC, I thought De Souza had him spot on throughout, just didn't have the pace in the final furlong.

 
Re: Question
BC2 (IP Logged)
05 January, 2016 22:04
There was no apparent reason from watching it why it should have been the draw FC, but nevertheless that's just 3 wins from the last 94 out of stall 1 now, so something is causing it, it can't be co-incidence.

My theory is that the surface is heavier the closer you get to the rail and this just takes a bit more out of those drawn 1 & 2. I've noticed the jockeys drawn on the rail never keep to it, they always come off the rail as far as they can, and very rarely do they stick to the rail up the straight, most of them come up the centre. I'm no expert on this but it's probably something to do with the way the grade the track.

There's a big difference with the sprint races I see at Ripon, anything drawn on the rail there sticks to it like glue, at Southwell they do all they can to get away from it.

 
Re: Question
BC2 (IP Logged)
06 January, 2016 22:34
Just been looking back at the Southwell 6f results FC, and I was surprised to find a winner from Stall 1 not that long ago, Dec 22nd, 3.30, Fujin @ 16/1. Paul Mulrennan was the jockey and I had a look at the replay to see if there were any clues as to how he did it.

He rode it like a bat out of hell for the first 100 yards, and once he was clear pulled it as far off the rail as he could get it, you could probably have got two horses up his inside so he was, in effect by now, in the stall 3 position. He kept off the rail round the bend, and by the time they were in the straight he was coming up the centre of the track, and they never got to him.

I suspect that's the answer to it, you've got to get off that part of the track next to the rail, but if your horse doesn't get a flyer like Fujin did, then you just can't do it.

 
Re: Question
Foreverclaret (IP Logged)
07 January, 2016 00:11
Extremely interesting observation there BC, I wonder whether others before Mulrennan adopted the same tactics. Looking back on Your Lucky Day's race, he did get away from the stalls well but got chopped up on the bend, was then stuck behind three others but coming off the final bend he did have the room to move out if he wanted.

 
Re: Question
BC2 (IP Logged)
07 January, 2016 09:07
I think one of the classic draw bias mysteries was York, quite few years back now. If you were drawn wide, even in races over 8/10/12f, it was almost impossible to win. There was no logic to it because York has long, flat, wide straight and looks one of the fairest tracks in the country. But get on that rail up the straight and you were unlikely to be caught.

Eventually someone discovered that the racetrack had become a favourite for early morning joggers, and they were so numerous they were creating a six foot strip of harder ground up the rail, get your horse on that and you were flying. I presume they put a stop to it, most of them seem to come up the middle now at York.

Possibly Southwell is just the opposite.

 
Re: Question
BC2 (IP Logged)
10 January, 2016 23:36
Interesting 6f race today FC, the 1.10. Fanning who surely knows Southwell as well as anyone, was on Kingsley Klarion for MJ, 9/4 2nd fav and drawn one off the rail. For whatever reason he did the opposite of what they usually try to do and put his horse on the rail as soon as he could, and kept it there for the full 6 furlongs. Entirely predictably, to me anyway, it never got competitive and finished 4th of the 5 beaten nearly 6 lengths.

Now Fanning is very experienced, so why would he do that ? Answers on the back of a postage stamp. I'll be keeping an eye on KK for it's next few runs.

 
Re: Question
Foreverclaret (IP Logged)
11 January, 2016 09:35
Just watched a re-run of that race BC, you are right Fanning made a real effort to get to the rails, when he got there he in my opinion gave KK a bit of a soft tide he knew from 1 1/2 furlongs out he wasn't going to be in it.

It is a really strange one this Southwell issue, I can't explain it, there does not seem to be any logic to it. Yesterday the winner positioned himself where Fanning would have been if he hadn't gone over to the rail and won the race comfortably, we are only talking of a distance of around 2 metres off the rail and it seems to make all the difference.

 
Re: Question
dandeclaret (IP Logged)
11 January, 2016 20:30
Isn’t it to do with the harrowing of the track lads? They recalibrate it every now and then, but naturally they harrow down the middle, but more of the surface ends up on the inside, and thus it gets deeper/slower.

That’s always been my understanding.

 
Re: Question
BC2 (IP Logged)
11 January, 2016 20:45
" I'm no expert on this but it's probably something to do with the way the grade the track."

I'm sure you're right Dan, I know it's had a similar effect at Wolves in the past.

 
Re: Question
BC2 (IP Logged)
28 January, 2016 21:04
"Now Fanning is very experienced, so why would he do that ? Answers on the back of a postage stamp. I'll be keeping an eye on KK for it's next few runs."

That didn't take long, ran at Kempton yesterday and won at 3/1.

 
Re: Question
Foreverclaret (IP Logged)
28 January, 2016 21:42
Missed it completely yesterday BC.


Regarding the harrowing I was listening to the guys on William Hill radio the other day and they were discussing the issues at Southwell, they all concluded that the problems on the rail were the harrowing of the track leaving it much deeper and energy sapping.

 
Re: Question
BC2 (IP Logged)
28 January, 2016 22:35
I'd put it my tracker FC so I knew it was running, but I decided they'd probably want it to drop a few more pounds before it went in again, so I didn't back it.

I also must admit I didn't notice they dropped it from a C2 at Lingfield, where it was only beaten a length, to a C4. That should have screamed out at me, but it didn't.

Like Sean says, don't overthink it, certainly one that got away.(Sm164)


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