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Old System
bordeauxclaret (IP Logged)
09 March, 2012 21:06
I was backing these in betting shops in the 1960's and I can't believe there's any long term profit in them but, I'd half an hour to spare this morning so I made a note of any horse shortening up on Billy Hills website. I found 16 that had shortened up, not necessarily massively, but significantly imo. Just checked the results and 5 of them had won, with Hills BPG the odds were,

15/2, (14/1-15/2) SP,7/1
6/1, (6/1-9/2) SP,6/1
100/30, (4/1-100/30) SP,3/1
100/30, (9/2-100/30) SP,9/4
11/4, (11/4-9/4) SP,11/4

£16 staked, £27.91 returned.

I'll try it again when I've got the time but such a good result has got to be a one-off surely.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



BC
Prediction League Champion 2006/7
Fantasy League Winner 2007/8

 
Re: Old System
bordeauxclaret (IP Logged)
11 March, 2012 10:29
Managed another look yesterday morning and it paid off again.

12 qualifiers, 3 winners @ 8/1,5/1 and 13/8.

Stake £12
Return £17.63
Profit £5.63

There was another one as well, Alben Star (Fahey/Hanagan) won @ 4/1, but there were a couple of others in that race shortening as well, so I crossed that race off the list.



BC
Prediction League Champion 2006/7
Fantasy League Winner 2007/8

 
Re: Old System
bordeauxclaret (IP Logged)
20 March, 2012 21:18
Checked out 4 more days since the last post and it's still profitable,

9 ran, 2 won, 8/1, 7/2
5 ran, 1 won, 5/4
3 ran, 1 won, 10/11
6 ran, 4 won, 13/2, 9/2, 5/4, 5/4

Totals now after 6 days,

51 ran, 16 won, returns £80.70, profit £29.70

I still can't believe this will be profitable in the long term, but I've got to keep backing them for the moment.



BC
Prediction League Champion 2006/7
Fantasy League Winner 2007/8

 
Re: Old System
Newton Exile (IP Logged)
21 March, 2012 08:49
thumbs down

 
Re: Old System
bordeauxclaret (IP Logged)
22 March, 2012 23:55
Wednesday
7 ran, 2 winners, 4/1, 2/1
Stake, £7.00 Return, £8.00, +£1.00

Thursday
8 ran, 3 winners, 8/1, 9/2, 3/1
Stake, £8.00 Return, £18.50, +£10.50

Overall
66 ran, 21 won,
Stake, £66.00 Return, £107.20, +£41.20



BC
Prediction League Champion 2006/7
Fantasy League Winner 2007/8

 
Re: Old System
Newton Exile (IP Logged)
23 March, 2012 07:44
BC, got some time and cash today

What's the deal! Can I give it a go?

Exile

 
Re: Old System
bordeauxclaret (IP Logged)
23 March, 2012 09:52
Exile, I have a look around 11.30 to 12.00, I'll put them up as soon as I've got my list.

This could be the kiss of death.(Sm14)



BC
Prediction League Champion 2006/7
Fantasy League Winner 2007/8

 
Re: Old System
bordeauxclaret (IP Logged)
23 March, 2012 10:04
Exile, you could try it yourself if you wanted, just check out any bookies website and note anything you think is shortening 'significantly'. I don't really have any hard and fast rules although I'm not interested in anything at double figure odds. If there's more than one shortening I don't bother with that race either. Sometimes it's a matter of judgement whether to include one or not, so your list could be different to mine.

I tend to use the amount a bookie wants to pay out a £100 as a guide and consider those where they want at least a fiver more. For example at 4/1 a bookie wants £20 to pay you £100, at 3/1 he wants £25 to pay you £100, so 4/1 into 3/1 is where I start to get interested.

Also use a BOG to put the bets on, some of them drift back out but still win.

Be Lucky(Sm14)



BC
Prediction League Champion 2006/7
Fantasy League Winner 2007/8

 
Re: Old System
bordeauxclaret (IP Logged)
23 March, 2012 11:56
Very quiet today, I can only find one I'm interested in,

Sedgefield 5.10 City Ground, 11/2---4/1

It's not really shortened up quite enough for me, but two others in the race are drifting and there's not much else going on, so I'll just have that one today. On another day, when there's plenty of qualifiers, I might have left this one out. No hard and fast rules. 9/2 with PaddyPower.



BC
Prediction League Champion 2006/7
Fantasy League Winner 2007/8

 
Re: Old System
Newton Exile (IP Logged)
23 March, 2012 14:38
thumbs down

 
Re: Old System
bordeauxclaret (IP Logged)
23 March, 2012 15:40
I suppose Exile it also depends on which site you use and what time you check them. I looked at Hills at 11.30am today, if you checked out say Ladbrokes at 1.00pm you might come up with a quite different list.

As long as it keeps making a profit though I'm not too bothered. Still think it'll all end in tears though, it's got to hasn't it, it can't be that easy and obvious ?



BC
Prediction League Champion 2006/7
Fantasy League Winner 2007/8

 
Re: Old System
Newton Exile (IP Logged)
23 March, 2012 16:47
BC I did this system on the 2.40 @ Newbury

How do you get on when there are several nags shortening?

BTW The winner came in from 6/1 to 9/2, but there were 3 others that came in!(Sm105)

Exile

 
Re: Old System
bordeauxclaret (IP Logged)
23 March, 2012 21:50
I don't bother with the race Exile. If there's a biggish field and just one of the others is just shortening a bit I might put one that's shortened a lot on the list, but generally if there's more than one shortening I just ignore the race.

I've no idea how this system works in the half hour before a race. I'm only interested in the market just before or around lunch time, so it's only money coming for a horse in the morning that gets it on my list. A few of them have been bet in the morning and then drifted back out in the afternoon. They still sometimes win though, it doesn't seem to matter whether, once they've shortened up, they stay the same price, they shorten further, or they drift back out, all of them have been winners.

Of course all the above is what I've found from a very small sample so far, so none of it is too reliable.



BC
Prediction League Champion 2006/7
Fantasy League Winner 2007/8

 
Re: Old System
soapylily (IP Logged)
24 March, 2012 07:45
Do you this link at all BC?

[www.racingpost.com]

 
Re: Old System
bordeauxclaret (IP Logged)
24 March, 2012 10:52
Cheers soapy, I haven't used that, could be useful. thumbs down



BC
Prediction League Champion 2006/7
Fantasy League Winner 2007/8

 
Re: Old System
bordeauxclaret (IP Logged)
25 March, 2012 10:21
Friday
1 ran, 0 winners, -£1.00

Saturday
4 ran, 1 winner 6/1.
Stake £4.00, Return, £7.00, +£3.00


Overall
71 ran, 22 won,
Stake, £71.00, Return £114.20, +£43.20

Incidentally Exile the winner was Viking Storm in the 5.10 at Lingfield. When I checked on Hills at noon it was into 5/1 from 15/2, right on the limit of what I'd consider. Nothing else in the race had shortened though so I included it. I backed it (I think with VC) at 6/1 and it's SP was 7/2.



BC
Prediction League Champion 2006/7
Fantasy League Winner 2007/8

 
Re: Old System
Newton Exile (IP Logged)
25 March, 2012 19:03
Nice !thumbs down

 
Re: Old System
Newton Exile (IP Logged)
29 March, 2012 19:00
Not sure if this is going to work long term but done okay this week (So far!)

Not rocket science, I've added to BC's shortening prize method by added course and distance winner into the equation.

I've been putting a single £10 win bet on each selection

Stats so far:
Monday: Lonesome Boatman Lost
Meridem Won @ 4/1
Staked £20, won £40, Running Balance +£20

Tuesday Favours Brave Lost
O'Crotaigh Won @ 9/2
Earth Planet Lost
Staked £30, Won £45, Running Balance +£35

Wednesday Avonlady Lost
Staked £10, Won £0, Running Balance + £25

Thursday Transact Lost
Kings Chorister Won @ 11/2
Lava Lamp Won @ 7/1
Delightfully Lost
Staked £40, Won £125, Running Balance +£110

Tomorrows Nags to look at for shortening.
Newcastle 3.00 Prince Tam
5.15 Harris Hawk
Wetherby 3.15 Langiver
3.50 Kilkenny All Star & Border River
4.20 Lap of Honor, Lady Anne Neville & Hi Dancer

I know it will not work all the time, but I thought I'd share it with you all(Sm151)

Exile

 
Re: Old System
bordeauxclaret (IP Logged)
30 March, 2012 12:56
It's done better than mine so far this week Exile, I've had a couple of winners but losing overall. I'll update it at weekend.



BC
Prediction League Champion 2006/7
Fantasy League Winner 2007/8

 
Re: Old System
Newton Exile (IP Logged)
30 March, 2012 17:17
Good finish to the week (Sm151)

Rolling £110 into today

Prince Tam Lost
Harris Hawk Won @ 5/6
Lawgiver Lost (3rd @ 20/1)
Kilkenny All Star Lost
Border Rivier Lost
Lady Anne Nevielle Lost
Hi Dancer Won @ 11/1

Staked £70, Won £118, Running balance £110 + £48 = £158

Very nice profit for the week

Gonna loose it all tonight at Wolverhampton (using the same system (Sm14))
6.25 Swords (Price gone out, so Shouldn't really be incuded)
7.25 Cookie Hamilton
7.55 Chester Slittergem
8.25 Waabel
8.55 Fleetwoodsands
£5 E/W singles
£1 E/W Doubles
£1 E/W L31

Be Lucky

Exile

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