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Betting
Arthur Tannen (IP Logged)
07 January, 2018 18:19
Alright everyone, haven't posted here for a while, hope everyone is well.

I found an idea for some risk free betting or minimal loss. It's using bookies acca insurance, for this example I'll use william hill who offer your money back as a free bet if one leg loses. Minimum odds of 1.2.

You are looking for odds as low as possible to get the maximum profit, average odds between 1.2 and 1.3 is ideal.

So if you can find average odds of 1.2 your maximum loss from a £20 bet is £2 and an average of 1.3 increases your potential loss. If you can find average odds between the 5 of 1.2 and an average lay of 1.22 at the exchange.

What you do is back the acca at say £20 and then lay off £20 on each individual leg at an average lay of 1.22 leaving you with a liability of £4.40 per leg, combined £22.

From the stats I've found, the chances are as follows:

All win (24%)
1 lose (40%)
2 lose (26%)
3 lose (9%)
4 lose (1%)
All lose (0.1%)

If all legs win your profit will be £29.77 - £22 you lost at the exchange giving you an overall profit of £7.77

If one legs loses you'll lose £2 overall

If two legs lose you'll be in profit by £6.80

If three legs lose profit = £31.20

If four legs lose profit = £55.60

If all 5 lose profit = £80

You have effectively increased your chances of making a profit from 24% to 60% and reduced your chances of losing your original stake from 76% to 40% and even then it's only £2.

I was doing a similar method last year which was more time consuming as you had to find games that kicked off at least 2 hours after each other, it brought in a decent profit but was looking for something risk free and took less time. I haven't tried this method yet but it looks decent.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 07/01/2018 18:20 by Arthur Tannen.

 
Re: Betting
an angry wolf (IP Logged)
07 January, 2018 18:22
Sorry AT missed this , mods feel free to delete my other thread

 
Re: Betting
an angry wolf (IP Logged)
07 January, 2018 18:29
I sent a pm so easier to reply to it here.. I understand how you are getting the exchange liability figures but what odds is the accumulator and how are you getting the £29.77 profit figure?

 
Re: Betting
Arthur Tannen (IP Logged)
07 January, 2018 18:50
I used this acca calculator calculator

Input 1.2 into each selection which returns 49.77 - 20 stake = profit of 29.77. I'm not sure what the odds are for the accumulator are as none of the calculators I can find show it.

Betway looks a interesting offer, unfortunately they've banned me from their promotions but if you bet £25 on accumulators during a week they'll give you a free bet of £10. So you could add £7.50 to any profits.

Edit: the accumulator is 2.48



Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 07/01/2018 18:54 by Arthur Tannen.

 
Re: Betting
an angry wolf (IP Logged)
07 January, 2018 19:39
I've never done accumulators in the past as I haven't found an edge in them but with matched betting such as this, it changes the dynamics entirely making it more viable. With the statistics as they are, it's a pity the maximum stake is £20 on these accumulators or can you put more on? Are these return odds/statistics applicable only for offers getting your money back if one leg of the bet fails or equal to all accumulators? There must be a catch surely as it's a license to print money long term albeit with peaks and troughs... it's like playing roulette continually betting on black with 20 black numbers , 16 red and one green

 
Re: Betting
Arthur Tannen (IP Logged)
07 January, 2018 20:00
Quote:
an angry wolf
I've never done accumulators in the past as I haven't found an edge in them but with matched betting such as this, it changes the dynamics entirely making it more viable. With the statistics as they are, it's a pity the maximum stake is £20 on these accumulators or can you put more on? Are these return odds/statistics applicable only for offers getting your money back if one leg of the bet fails or equal to all accumulators? There must be a catch surely as it's a license to print money long term albeit with peaks and troughs... it's like playing roulette continually betting on black with 20 black numbers , 16 red and one green

They used to be even better, william hill for example had a max bet of £50 with no minimum odds but have reduced it to £20 with odds of no lower than 1.2. I think ladbrokes still offer a max bet of 50 but their min odds are higher. Just a 0.1 change in odds can reduce your profits by quite a bit.

Yeah the profit is made from the possibility of your money back as a free bet, you are adding that into the calculations so without it your odds of winning are reduced considerably. There may be some value in say a triple though, I just wonder if you could under lay them to increase your chances of a profit or minimise your loss.

Also I was thinking with the original acca method, the only way you can lose money is if one team loses so if you wanted to add a bit more risk you could pick one of the 5 and not lay it at all, for example the strongest favourite of the 5, Man City or Chelsea at home. Then if one of them does lose the odds are well in your favour that it won't be that leg, which would cover your loss if you had layed it or give you a small profit.



Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 07/01/2018 20:07 by Arthur Tannen.

 
Re: Betting
an angry wolf (IP Logged)
07 January, 2018 20:22
Quote:
Arthur Tannen
Quote:
an angry wolf
I've never done accumulators in the past as I haven't found an edge in them but with matched betting such as this, it changes the dynamics entirely making it more viable. With the statistics as they are, it's a pity the maximum stake is £20 on these accumulators or can you put more on? Are these return odds/statistics applicable only for offers getting your money back if one leg of the bet fails or equal to all accumulators? There must be a catch surely as it's a license to print money long term albeit with peaks and troughs... it's like playing roulette continually betting on black with 20 black numbers , 16 red and one green

They used to be even better, william hill for example had a max bet of £50 with no minimum odds but have reduced it to £20 with odds of no lower than 1.2. I think ladbrokes still offer a max bet of 50 but their min odds are higher. Just a 0.1 change in odds can reduce your profits by quite a bit.

Yeah the profit is made from the possibility of your money back as a free bet, you are adding that into the calculations so without it your odds of winning are reduced considerably. There may be some value in say a triple though, I just wonder if you could under lay them to increase your chances of a profit or minimise your loss.

Also I was thinking with the original acca method, the only way you can lose money is if one team loses so if you wanted to add a bit more risk you could pick one of the 5 and not lay it at all, for example the strongest favourite of the 5, Man City or Chelsea at home. Then if one of them does lose the odds are well in your favour that it won't be that leg, which would cover your loss if you had layed it or give you a small profit.

The problem with the last scenario is you would potentially lose more heavily if the heavy favourite didn't win ( as I assume these are straight win markets).If it starts at 1.2 or over then it will fail to win at least 16 % of the time with an 83.3% chance of victory.. good odds but over a large number of bets it will add up. One of the reasons I have always stayed clear of accumulators is they normally don't contain the draw so effectively backing one horse in a three horse race of home win/draw/away win. That said I think draw no bet can be incorporated in some bookies accumulators but haven't looked into it.

If you have a betfair account, steer clear of Ladbrokes as they have close ties with betfair and could close your account- it's frowned upon obviously this type of betting as they like the traditional p1sshead backing his team clutching a pork pie logged in from the stand.

I actually opened an account with WIlliam hill yesterday so will see what offers they give me. I have to travel back to Manchester on Tuesday but will look to see what can be made from any of these offers/ price boosts they have.

What site do you use to get the matched betting stats/info on incidentally and is it updated week to week with new offers?

 
Re: Betting
Arthur Tannen (IP Logged)
07 January, 2018 20:51
Yeah more of a risk, on the example above where you'd lose £2 if one team lost and the one you didn't lay lost you would lose £20, so probably not worth it for just £4.40 extra.

Thanks for the info regarding ladbrokes and betfair, I didn't know they were linked, I did know Paddy power and betfair were linked. I've mainly used smarkets for my lays so far, the same odds as betfair but only 2% commission.

William Hills price boost could add even more profit if you could add it to an accumulator too, I know you can with their other promotions. Also you could do a few basic arbs with it if you could get some really close odds with betfair. I don't put a great deal on so my profits are minimal but I've seen on a forum I read people putting £200 on with a price boost and getting £35-£45, not sure if they are bullshitting though.

Here's a couple of sites I use.

https://matchedbettingblog.com/blog/

https://www.teamprofit.com/matched-betting-blog

 
Re: Betting
Arthur Tannen (IP Logged)
07 January, 2018 22:00
I've put together a quick accumulator on william hill for next weekend just to test it out.

Real Madrid back 1.28 lay 1.34
Man Utd back 1.20 lay 1.25
PSG back 1.22 lay 1.30
Spurs back 1.28 lay 1.31
Chelsea 1.28 lay 1.30

Accumulator odds - 3.12

Because the lay prices are different to the original example of using 1.22 for each leg you will get slightly different results depending on which one loses.

If you lay them all as £20 each the results are as follows:

All win = £12.40
1 loss = between -9.40 and -7.60
2 lose = between £0.20 and £2.20
3 lose = between £25.80 and £27.80
4 lose = between £51.60 and £53.40
5 lose = £78

Literally took 5 mins to put together, could find a couple of better legs before next week to improve it and I'd expect some of those lay prices to come down as it gets closer to the match. Also be worth looking through the small print to make sure everything is correct.

https://promotions.williamhill.com/offer/acca-five-2017-2018

You can also mix in other sports too so could add in tennis or snooker.

 
Re: Betting
Arthur Tannen (IP Logged)
07 January, 2018 22:48
Also one more thing, if we use the percentage chance of all 5 winning without laying the chance of winning the acca is 24% or 1 in 4 chance which is poor.

But using this method and saying that 1 in 4 of our accas wins, even if we get the worst results possible for the other 3 accas (1 loss) we will lose £19.60 overall. Odds are in our favour though (60%) that the 3 other legs will result in a profit.

4 every 10 times you'd lose (£8 on the above acca) = £32
2.5 in 10 times you'd win £12.40 = £31
2.5 in 10 times you'd win £1.20 = £3
1 in 10 you'd win £26.80
1 in 100 you'd win between £52.60 and £78

My maths isn't great but as far as I can see for every 10 accas you play you'll win £28 on average. Over 100 you'd win £332.

On William Hill you can have one acca ending per day so if you could do just two a week and also do them on a couple of more bookies that's a possible profit of £1000 a year from little effort.

 
Re: Betting
an angry wolf (IP Logged)
07 January, 2018 22:59
Quote:
Arthur Tannen
I've put together a quick accumulator on william hill for next weekend just to test it out.
Real Madrid back 1.28 lay 1.34
Man Utd back 1.20 lay 1.25
PSG back 1.22 lay 1.30
Spurs back 1.28 lay 1.31
Chelsea 1.28 lay 1.30

Accumulator odds - 3.12

Because the lay prices are different to the original example of using 1.22 for each leg you will get slightly different results depending on which one loses.

If you lay them all as £20 each the results are as follows:

All win = £12.40
1 loss = between -9.40 and -7.60
2 lose = between £0.20 and £2.20
3 lose = between £25.80 and £27.80
4 lose = between £51.60 and £53.40
5 lose = £78

Literally took 5 mins to put together, could find a couple of better legs before next week to improve it and I'd expect some of those lay prices to come down as it gets closer to the match. Also be worth looking through the small print to make sure everything is correct.

https://promotions.williamhill.com/offer/acca-five-2017-2018

You can also mix in other sports too so could add in tennis or snooker.

Cheers for the info AT particularly the links to the sites you put up. I think there may be money to be made with due diligence but using those figures you have listed above if played out over 100 bets using a median of mathematical probability of each coming in using the highest point of range for loss and likewise for profit

1 loss = - £376 ( 40% chance)
2 losses= £57 ( 26 % chance )
3 losses= £250 ( 9 % chance)
4 losses= £53.40 ( 1% chance)


You would have a net loss of £16 even if you paid no commission on the exchanges

You would have a 0.1 % chance of the £78 which is one in a thousand chance and have excluded it as a realistic scenario occurring on a regular basis

 
Re: Betting
an angry wolf (IP Logged)
07 January, 2018 23:02
Infact I haven't included the all win possibility which is just shy of £300 so ignore the last post. It is worth investigating further but imperative to try somehow to keep losses more on William hill as they will limit promotions on a winning account



Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 07/01/2018 23:15 by an angry wolf.

 
Re: Betting
an angry wolf (IP Logged)
07 January, 2018 23:26
I'm going to test this with real money keeping track of it. I currently have just over a grand in betfair but nothing in William hill so will put a few quid in this week. I don't question the figures you extrapolate from the initial percentages but question the actual percentage figures themselves so the only way to test it is with real cash.

Assuming there is profit to be made, the only way to keep it ongoing is to somehow offload profits into betfair as any account with a bookie showing medium/long term profit would be closed down.

 
Re: Betting
an angry wolf (IP Logged)
07 January, 2018 23:39
Looking at the figures there is a 24% chance of profiting on William Hill and a 36% chance of profiting on betfair which is what we want with a 40% chance of simply triggering the "free bet". As we know, no bookie would win a promotion statistically weighted in the punters favour so would imagine these figures are likely to be weighted in favour of losing money on the bookie site and profiting with the exchange. If we can use 1 bet per day which is doable given all the sports etc , that equates to £20 a week just using William hill. What other bookies do these type of promotions?

 
Re: Betting
Arthur Tannen (IP Logged)
08 January, 2018 00:20
That's why I stopped with the other method, you can guarantee a profit by picking 5 games that kick off with at least 2 hours in between so you can lay them off individually and once 1 loses you stop laying them. You might as well add a note to the acca saying you are a matched better though.

With this method though you'll just look like the average mug better as you'll be losing the bet 3 out of 4 times. So if you bet 4 accumulators of £20 each, you'll be roughly losing on average around £10 per accumulator.

Paddy Power do one with a max bet of £50 with minimum odds of 1.2 but you'd have to use smarkets to lay off those.

https://www.cheekypunter.com/faq/acca-insurance/

 
Re: Betting
Arthur Tannen (IP Logged)
08 January, 2018 11:35
Another potentially profitable one is when the bookies offer extra places on the horses, for example Skybet have one today where they will pay for 4 places instead of 3. You then back your horse at the bookie each way and lay it at the exchange and also lay it to place. If you can find a horse with tight odds between the bookie and the exchange then your risk is literally pennies.

For a relatively small back of £10 at 15 and the horse wins or finishes 2nd, 3rd or outside the top 3 you'll lose around 98p. What you are betting on is the horse finishing 4th, if it does you'll win £37. I did a couple of these last year without success but I do know a few people who've had some success with it but the problem is finding odds tight enough between bookie and exchange. If you did all you'd really need is 1 in 10 of them to be successful and you'd comfortably be well in profit. This is also just using a example of £10 and you aren't limited as what you can bet. So if you bet £100, the most you could lose is £9.80 but if you finish 4th you'd win £370.

This is a better explanation - https://matchedbettingblog.com/extra-place-offers/

Also another thing to look out for is offers at the big sporting events, last year at Cheltenham the bookies literally gave money away, I couldn't keep up with the offers. Skybet and Sunbet's had an offer on the first race of each day that if you bet a maximum £25 and your horse lost they'd give you your money back as a free bet. So you'd just under lay it at the exchange to guarantee yourself £16 from each race so all together just from those two bookies the guaranteed risk free profit was £128.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 08/01/2018 11:40 by Arthur Tannen.

 
Re: Betting
an angry wolf (IP Logged)
08 January, 2018 19:23
I wouldn't do the horse finishing 4th as it's far too low a strike rate - you could go on terrible losing runs maybe 25-30 races with it not finishing 4th unless it was a small field. It's unlikely but seeing your bank deplete by £££s for long periods would be demoralising.

I have to go to Manchester tomorrow, but will start the real money experiment when I return hopefully later in the week depending on what I find at my house when I get there.. just the 8 hours of travel each way.

 
Re: Betting
Arthur Tannen (IP Logged)
09 January, 2018 10:02
I'd comb through the terms and conditions before you start with the welcome offer, the teamprofit site is a great guide though. But it's easy to make a mistake such as the minimum odds you can use to qualify for the free bet will differ from bookie to bookie and for example William Hill give you one bet boost per day but I don't think you can use it to qualify for their free £30 bet. Also if you use paypal and a few other methods to deposit you won't qualify.

Make sure you enter the promotion code C30 when you create an account else you won't qualify either.

https://promotions.williamhill.com/offer/c30

Minimum odds are 1.5

 
Re: Betting
Ivybridge Wolf (IP Logged)
09 January, 2018 11:40
Quote:
Arthur Tannen
I've put together a quick accumulator on william hill for next weekend just to test it out.
Real Madrid back 1.28 lay 1.34
Man Utd back 1.20 lay 1.25
PSG back 1.22 lay 1.30
Spurs back 1.28 lay 1.31
Chelsea 1.28 lay 1.30

Accumulator odds - 3.12

Because the lay prices are different to the original example of using 1.22 for each leg you will get slightly different results depending on which one loses.

If you lay them all as £20 each the results are as follows:

All win = £12.40
1 loss = between -9.40 and -7.60
2 lose = between £0.20 and £2.20
3 lose = between £25.80 and £27.80
4 lose = between £51.60 and £53.40
5 lose = £78

Literally took 5 mins to put together, could find a couple of better legs before next week to improve it and I'd expect some of those lay prices to come down as it gets closer to the match. Also be worth looking through the small print to make sure everything is correct.

https://promotions.williamhill.com/offer/acca-five-2017-2018

You can also mix in other sports too so could add in tennis or snooker.

Although having worked in Ladbrokes, albeit many moons ago (30 years plus), I stil struggle with the term 'lay'. I think Angry qualified about 4-5 years ago, nevertheless ..... !

In your example AT, you are betting as an accumulator for the 5 teams quoted, correct? Is that at £20 too?

When you state you lay e.g. 1.34 for Real Madrid, what bet are you making there? Is that a £20 single? How do draws come into the equation?

Trouble is, I can't find the equivalent bet on BET365.

Thanks in advance .... cheers



https://i.pinimg.com/236x/74/97/b1/7497b1d1e231e8f83fc02db12bc473da--uk-football-sports-logos.jpg



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 09/01/2018 11:42 by Ivybridge Wolf.

 
Re: Betting
Arthur Tannen (IP Logged)
09 January, 2018 13:37
Quote:
Ivybridge Wolf
Quote:
Arthur Tannen
I've put together a quick accumulator on william hill for next weekend just to test it out.
Real Madrid back 1.28 lay 1.34
Man Utd back 1.20 lay 1.25
PSG back 1.22 lay 1.30
Spurs back 1.28 lay 1.31
Chelsea 1.28 lay 1.30

Accumulator odds - 3.12

Because the lay prices are different to the original example of using 1.22 for each leg you will get slightly different results depending on which one loses.

If you lay them all as £20 each the results are as follows:

All win = £12.40
1 loss = between -9.40 and -7.60
2 lose = between £0.20 and £2.20
3 lose = between £25.80 and £27.80
4 lose = between £51.60 and £53.40
5 lose = £78

Literally took 5 mins to put together, could find a couple of better legs before next week to improve it and I'd expect some of those lay prices to come down as it gets closer to the match. Also be worth looking through the small print to make sure everything is correct.

https://promotions.williamhill.com/offer/acca-five-2017-2018

You can also mix in other sports too so could add in tennis or snooker.

Although having worked in Ladbrokes, albeit many moons ago (30 years plus), I stil struggle with the term 'lay'. I think Angry qualified about 4-5 years ago, nevertheless ..... !

In your example AT, you are betting as an accumulator for the 5 teams quoted, correct? Is that at £20 too?

When you state you lay e.g. 1.34 for Real Madrid, what bet are you making there? Is that a £20 single? How do draws come into the equation?

Trouble is, I can't find the equivalent bet on BET365.

Thanks in advance .... cheers

Basically lay means you are betting against the result so if we use the Real Madrid example, you back them to win at 1.28 at William Hill then at the exchange (betfair, betdaq, smarkets etc) you lay (bet against) them at 1.32.

All lay means in football is that you are betting on the other two outcomes. So at the bookie you back the home win then if you lay the home win at the exchange you are betting on the away win and draw.

You can only lay a bet at an exchange, the bookies don't offer it.

With the accumulator you will place a single bet on it of £20 and then at the exchange you will lay each individual leg of it. For the above example the average lay odds are 1.3 so you then lay £20 on each individual leg which leaves you with a potential profit of £20 or a loss of £6 per leg. You are just trying to covering your initial accumulator bet of £20.

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